Thursday, August 6, 2009

My Take on Fixing the Mets, Part 2

After Part One covered the pitchers and catchers, Part Two will cover the Infield.
First Base
Daniel Murphy has done a good job defensively, his UZR is 1.5 and his UZR/150 is 3.4. He has 7 homers, and ZIPs predicts 5 for the rest of the season. However, he has been a bit dissapointing based by last years performance. He had a .386 BABIp last year, and this year it is .272. Because this is his second year, you don't know what his BABIP will be, but his Line Drive percentage is down, his fly ball percentages is up, and his HR/FB% is down. In the end, you don't know who you get, but for next year, I would find having Murphy at first base perfectly acceptable. In 2011 though, I want to see Ike Davis. This year, at AA Binghamton, Ike is batting .301/.382/.534. He has 8 home runs and 10 doubles in 165 PA's, so the power is there. He should be in Buffalo in 2010, and hopefully Queens in 2011. On the Free Agent market, in 2010, Albert Pujols. Other cheaper options include Carlos Pena, Lyle Overbay, and Derek Lee. Overbay and Lee would be older (34 and 36 respectively) while Pena will be 33, and Pujols 31. My choice after Pujols would be Pena.
Second Base
Luis Castillo would be in the last year of his contract in 2011. Internal options include Jonathan Malo and Jose Coronado, in AA, but both of them are having pretty sucky seasons. Another option could be Reese Havens, who projects to be a second baseman, but this year in PSL, he is hitting .237/.351/.419 although with power, it translates to a .207/.265/.339 line. Hector Pellot could be another option; in Port St Lucie he is hitting .261/.339/.362. Free Agents after 2010 include Freddy Sanchez, Kaz Matsui, and Akinori Iwamura. If I had to sign anyone, it would be Iwamura.
Shortstop
Jose Reyes. It will be his option year, if exercised, but the Mets should really extend his contract. He is one of the better shortstops in the game, and one of the faces of the franchise. I am not one of those people who think he should be traded, unless you could get a good shortstop in return (with Boston, Ellsbury and Lowrie had been discussed, I still want to see how Lowrie plays). The only other internal options are Ruben Tejada, a good glove no hit shortstop, Wilmer Flores (who will probably be moved to the outfield) and Reese Havens (who predicts to be a second baseman). The only viable free agent is JJ Hardy, but I would not replace Jose Reyes with JJ Hardy. His career OBP is .323, and his wOBA (weighted On Base Average, a stat that uses linear weights, on a OBP scale) is .326, compared to a career .337 OBP and .342 wOBA for Reyes, which is not great, but which has been improving steadily.
Third Base
David Wright. There is no one else I want at third base. No one. No one internally, no one externally. 2011 he will make $14 Million.

Thats it for Part 2, Part 3 will cover the outfield and Bench, and Part 4 will cover budget and lineups.

1 comment:

  1. why would u take iwamura over sanchez? anyway, good post

    ReplyDelete