When the Mets score 2 runs against a pitcher that has an average ERA, and a medicore tRA, you know things are bad. When they've scored 13 runs in 3 games against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have allowed 500 runs, you know things are bad. When they are on the verge of losing 3 out of 4 to a team that is 13 under, and is 4.5 worse than us, you know things are bad. Using a method that Bill James intorcued in the 1981 Baseball Abstract, called Log-5, we should beat the DIamondbacks 54% of the time. Which means, that we should split these 4 game series, and win 2 out 3, if we played them in a 3 game series. However, we will not split this series, because there is no way in hell we will score enough runs against Dan Haren. I am glad it will be Nelson Figueroa pitching, instead of Tim Redding, but Nelson is going to have to outduel Dan Haren to stay up, and even then he might be sent back down. Which is a shame, because at this point he is better than Oliver Perez and Livan Hernandez. Pelfrey looked good throught the first inning, went Perez like in the second, then settled in the third, before giving up a run in the fourth, and 2 in the fifth. However, in the fifth, the Mets looked like they could come back, with Francoeur hitting a homer, Sullivan tripling, and Cora doubling. He was at third with one out, before Sheffield (welcome back, the first off the DL!) lined out, and Pagan (slowly going back down to earth) flied out. And we didn't score again. Misch and Redding gave up 2 more runs; Misch, not Redding was DFA'ed. You can't even blame Jerry for this game.
Stupid Decison of the Day: Actually playing the game. We probably have a better chance of splitting a double header then beating Haren. Hey, they'd be tired too.
Random Thought of the Day: Are you that cheap, Freddy? Tim Redding can't be DFA'ed because he costs $2.5 million? Really, Fred Coupon? Really?
Clutch Play of the Game: Sullivan triple in the fifth. +11.9%
Up Next for The Mets: Diamondbacks vs Mets, 7:10 ET
Nelson Figueroa (0-1 4.50 ERA, 5.73 FIP, 5.06 tRA; 7-5, 2.25 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 3.04 tRA and a translated 3.51 DERA in AAA Buffalo)
Dan Haren (10-6 2.19 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 2.98 tRA)
Monday, August 3, 2009
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