Mike Pelfrey 2008 and 2009

After Last night's performance, Mike Pelfrey's ERA went to 4.88. This is a far cry from his ERA of 3.72 ERA last year. However, I think this has to do with the defense that has been behind him. His FIP (fielding independent pitching on ERA scale) was 3.96; this year it is 4.12, so there is not a lot of difference. This year, his K/9 is higher, his BB/9 is higher, but his groundball percentage is a percent higher, at 50.9 compared to 49.6. His HR/9 is a touch higher. This should account for the higher FIP, and the more groundballs might account for the higher ERA, seeing as the Mets defense has been pretty crappy this year. Another stat to measure pitchers is xFIP, and is available on the Hardball Times. Instead of HR, xFIP is expected FIP. Here is an article on the two. The formula for FIP is (13*HR+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP. Because pitchers sometimes have less control on home runs (due to park factors, altitude, etc) The Hardball Times replaced HR with the league average of HR/FB%, and used that to multiply flyballs. So the formula for xFIP= ((FB*HR/FB%)*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP. This is another good article. So Pelfrey's xFIP is 4.50, compared to 4.70 for last year. His BABIP is also higher this year, indicating he's been unlucky. So don't worry about Pelf, he'll be fine. ZiPS (Fangraphs.com projections) predicts that he'll have a 4.31 ERA for the rest of the year. So Pelf is fine, and is a good number 3 starter. Just not the number 2 guy.