Okay, I know this stat has been invented and used before, but because I can't find it, I'm going to do my own one. The stat is Predicted Winning Percentage, or PrWP. (Prip is fine to pronounce) and it takes the formula of Offensive Winning Percentage. The formula is: Team Runs Per game divided by DERA (look for the glossary) squared divided by team runs per game divided by DERA squared plus one: (TmRPG/DERA)^2/((tmrpg/DERA)^2+1). Their is also Predicted Winning Percentage above Average, or PrWPA, with average being 4.50 DERA, and has a neutral adjusted league average RPG. There is also Park and league adjusted PrWP, which is the same formula as above, except TmRPG, which is park adjusted, and DERA, which is park adjusted. Park adjustements can be found on ESPN.com, right here. 1 is a neutral park, above one favors hitters, and below favors pitchers. As you can see, Citi Field depresses run scoring a lot, ranking 26th, and is a severe pitcher's park.
An Example:
Johan Santana, 3.63 DERA. 4.26 RPG for the Mets
(4.26/3.63)^2/(4.26/3.63)^2+1)=.579*21 (his starts)=12 expected wins and 9 expected losses, which is quite close to his actual record of 12-8.
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