Friday, July 31, 2009

Mets trade deadline

In response to what my colleague has already stated, the reason the Mets did nothing at the deadline (even though stupid GM said thy were buyers) is that they have one of the highest pay rolls in the majors and don't want to give away any of their top prospects. If a trade did go down you might be looking at F-Mart in another teams uni. So be happy Mets fans, although I understand your frustration that Kazmir isn't on a plane to La Guardia no top prospect have been lost. The only way the Mets can get better is by keeping their prospects and developing them into either good players that can bring the team success or trade bait. Right now we are relying on a carrer .263 hitter (Tatis) and the ancient, alibi very good except for one dropped ball Luis Castillo. The Mets have a solid core of Wright, Beltran, Santana, K-Rod, and Reyes is to the Mets as Y is to the vowels. Not completely needed but add flashiness. Throw in F-Mart, Niese, and Murphy, the Mets have the tools to build a winning team. Maybe also Francoeur can turn this streak of good games into long term success, he could fit into the puzzle. So even though the Mets didn't make any moves this year so far, we have a lot to look forward to in 5-10 years.

Trade Deadline

Well, the Mets did nothing. We here at MetsMD jumped the gun on the Scott Kazmir/Crawford/Pena deal. So we f***** up by assuming that Scott would be on the team. However, at least we didn't say that Adam LaRoche is joining the team. It was reported he was, and then he ended up back with the Braves. Its trading season; everyone effs up somewhere in speculation. Here are a rundown of deadline deals:
  • Victor Martinez to the Red Sox for Justin Masterson and 2 prospects
  • Jarrod Washburn to the Tiger for Luke French and a prospect
  • Nick Johnson and his salary paid for by the Nats to Florida for LHP prospects
  • Joe Beimel to the Rockies
  • Adam LaRoche to ATL for Casey Kotchman
  • Orlando Cabrera to Minnesota in return for a prospect
Obviously the biggest deal is the Martinez one; Halladay remains a Blue Jay. And why Omar could you not get Nick Johnson?

The Possible Trade

Trevor D is a new writer for the Blog. Not as much as a stat guy as me, he is our Citi Field correspondent, so on those Omar press conferences, he should be there. ---Aidan G.

Because the Mets have finally lost a game, I have been asked to write a short post about the possible trade between the Mets, Rays, and Indians. If this trade goes through the Rays would get Victor Martinez from the Indians, the Indians would get prospects from the Mets, but the Mets could keep their big prospects. The Mets are the overall winners for this possible trades. Although it is not definite, the Mets would recieve Carlos Pena and Scott Kazmir. Pena is a first baseman who has an average OBP of .346. He also has the third most home runs in the American League with 25. His batting average though could improve as it is .215. Kazmir hasn't had a good a year as hoped with a 5-6 record and a 6.22 ERA. Over his 5 full year career he has had 52 wins with a career ERA of 3.87. Also Scott was in the Mets system before he was sent to the Rays with another prospect for Victor Zambrano and another pitcher. This trade turned out to be horrible and Mets fans have seen Kazmir's recent success as something that should be ours. If this trade goes through the Mets would get a home run hitter and a bonafide young ace.

Rumor of a 3 way trade between Mets, Rays, and Cleveland

From Mike Silva's Baseball Digest
"We are hearing dialogue about the Mets/Rays/ and Indians talking about a three way deal. In this scenario Victor Martinez would go to Tampa and not New York. As of now we do not know who the Mets would receive in this scenario. One of the things that both Joe and I discussed, and this is pure speculation not a rumor, is that it could involve Scott Kazmir"
Metsblog reckons that the Mets might try to trade Cleveland mid level prospects, i.e, not Holt, Mejia, David, Flores, Niese, or F-Mart. One Rays website thinks it might be Scott Kazmir or Carlos Pena who would be traded to us, with prospects going to Cleveland, who would trade Victor Martinez to Tampa. Tampa need to clear money so they could get Martinez. There are also reports of a 3 way trade between Boston, Tampa, and Cleveland, with Martinez going to Boston.

I would definately do this trade, if the top prospects were held on to. However, we've been in this situation before (2004, Kazmir was traded) and that didn't turn out well. So, Omar, don't be stupid.

Dessens DFA'ed, return of the 3 catchers

Elmer Dessens (3.64 ERA, 5.89 FIP, 6.19 tRA) has been designated for assignment. The Mets have gone back to a full bench, and called up Robinson Cancel from AAA (.218/.266/.259 in AAA Buffalo, translated to a .205/.250/.241 line) because Brian Schneider's knee is sore. Surgery is on Monday.
So Tim Redding, and his $2.25 million guaranteed contract, who has been marginally better than Dessens (Dessens has been lucky, which is indicated by the high FIP, tRA, and the .196 BABIP when his career mark is .311) gets to stay. Just for fun, Tim Redding's line: 7.03 (!!, ZiPS, from Fangraphs predicts a 5.33 Rest of season) ERA, 5.31 FIP, 6.65 tRA, and a .326 BABIP, which is near his career norm. Really, they both should go and the Mets should use either Figueroa or Livan Hernandez as the long man.

Double Header Split; Win 7-0, Lose 4-2

7-0 WIN
Everything went right in this game. The Mets scored 5 runs in an inning for the first time since probably 2006, Angel Berroa (OMG) hit a 2 run double, and Johan was vintage Johan, going 7 scoreless. 4 out of his last 5 starts have lasted 7 innings, and he has given up 2 runs once, 0 3 times. Even Tim Redding pitched a scorless inning. Jerry Manuel wasn't stupid.
Clutch Play of the Day: Angel Berroa 2 run double in the 2nd. +10.6% WPA
4-2 Loss
Everything I just said about Jerry Manuel is false. He is stupid. He is the most stupid person ever. Jonathon Niese had been pitching well threw 5, and increased the Rockies scoreless streak to 27 innings. However, in the 6th inning, he gave up a run, to tie the game 1-1, walked 2, threw 21 pitches, and was lucky that Spilbourghs got thrown out stealing second. So, seeing as the bullpen has been well rested, you would think the Mets would go to the bullpen. No, Jerry does not do that. So, Niese gives up a double to the pitcher, the effing pitcher, that Pagan misplayed. Jerry, he just gave up a double to the pitcher, are you going to take him out? No, so the next batter lines a ball down the line that Tatis makes an unbelieveable catch on. So, Jerry. 2 hard hit balls this inning, are you going to the 'pen? Nope. He gives up a 2 run homer to Barmes. Then a single to Helton. Finally, Jerry gets him, and brings in Stokes, who gives up a triple to Tulowitzki, but then get an inning ending DP. The first batter of the 7th (Tatis) hits a homer. So we could've been up 2-1, but instead we lose 4-2. Jerry Lost this game
Stupid Decision of the Day:
Jerry not pulling Niese after 6. This is a loss on Jerry. Also, Angel Pagan getting thrown out in the first after Castillo went to second. You can't hesitate Pagan, once the throw goes down, you have to go, you can't have any indecision, because the cost is too great. 1st and 3rd, no outs, and we get 0 runs.
Random Thought of the Day:
Citi Field is really hard to hit a homer out of. How many times did the Mets reach the warning track? The ball seeemed to die at 410.
Clutch Play of the Game:
Fernando Tatis homer in the 7th. +9.3% WPA.
Up Next for the Mets:
start of a 4 game series with offensively challenged Arizona.
Livan Hernandez (7-5 4.87 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 5.45 tRA)
looks to pitch like he did in his last start. He'll Face
Doug Davis (5-10 3.76 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 5.01 tRA)

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Rained Out

Game rained out, double header for tomorrow, 12:10 and 7:10, with 12:10 the regular scheduled game. Luis Castillo will miss both, as his wife is giving birth. So we'll have 3 guys on the bench.
Pitching Matchups:
For us:
Johan Santana (11-8 3.12 ERA 3.82 FIP 3.71 tRA) and
Jonathon Niese (1-0 4.08 ERA 2.26 FIP 3.24 tRA)
Colarado will pitch:
Jason Hammel (5-5 4.28 ERA 3.82 FIP 4.22 tRA) and
Jorge de la Rosa (8-7 4.78 ERA 3.70 FIP 3.66 tRA)
who has been very good recently, and somewhat unlucky as his FIP and tRA show. Hopefully the Mets can sweep the double header.
Lets go Mets

Make it 4: Win, 4-0

When the New York Mets don't allow a run, they are going to win most of their games. Even with a lineup that includes replacement level players as Cory Sullivan, Angel Pagan, Alex Cora and Daniel Murphy still has enough to score 1 run. One thing about this 4 game streak we're on: The pitching has been excellent. 3 in 3 of the games, and then 0 yesterday, for a total of 9 in 4 games, while we've scored 28 in 4 games. Apparently Mike Pelfrey was throwing 96 MPH gas in the 6th inning as he was up to 100 pitches. Pelfrey wasn't his usual Pelfrey, as he got moe flyouts than groundouts, and he struck out 5. Pedro Feliciano came in relief of Pelfrey in the 7th, with a man at second and faced 5 batters and struck out 3 of them, including 2 in the 7th. Sean Green pitched the ninth as there was no need to go to Francisco Rodriguez. Offensively, David Wright, Daniel Murphy and Alex Cora all had 2 hit games, as the Mets got 9 hits, 5 walks, and hit batter. Jeff Francoeur brought in a run on a base hit, and was the hit batter. Thats one way to get the on base percentage higher. He's now got hit more than he's walked. But, he continue's to have success at the plate. Brian Schneider, Luis Castillo, and Daniel Murphy all had rbi's. It's amazing how well Castillo is doing. After his bad season last year, many expected him to suck. Except for the dropped pop up, he has been one of our more consistent hitters, and his .403 OBP is second only to David Wright's. Jerry Manuel, I don't know why you left Mike Pelfrey in the game after he'd thrown 105 pitches, but its not that big of a deal. You have not made a game changing stupid decision in 4 games. Maybe it's because we're winning, and I feel more benign towards. you.
Stupid Decision of the Day: None.
Random Thought of the Day: Why do some Mets fans think other Mets fans who criticize Francoeur for not walking want him to fail just so they can say "I told you so". Even though this is a dysfunctional organization, every one wants the Mets to win.
Clutch Play of the Day: Luis Castillo singles in Cora in the third to make 2-0; +9.1% WPA.
Up Next for the Mets: Rockies vs Mets, 7:10 PM ET
Johan Santana (11-8 3.12 ERA 3.82 FIP 3.71 tRA)
looks to bounce back from his last start
Jason Hammel (5-5 4.28 ERA 3.82 FIP 4.22 tRA) pitches for the Rockies.
Mets are only 5.5 back of the Rockies and Giants in the Wild Card; with Johan and Niese pitching, we could be 3.5 back by the end of this series. We then play offensively challenged Arizona over the weekend. It could happen.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

3 in a row, Win 7-3

The World is upside down. Jeff Francoeur walked (it was an intentional walk, but we're making progress). Fernando 6-4-3 Tatis hit a pinch hit grand slam instead of grounding into a double play. And Oliver Perez pitched well. Okay, so that didn't happen. He didn't pitch all that badly, and if he wasn't making $12 million a year for those kinds of starts, I'd be okay with that. 5 innings, 3 runs, 5 hits, 4 walks, 5 strikeouts. And 2 homers. Brian Stokes pitched 2 scoreless innings in relief. He's been good recently. Feliciano, who got the win struck out 2 in his scoreless inning, and K-Rod pitched the 9th, and happily for Mets fans did not make it interesting. The win takes minds off of the Tony Bernazard/Adam Rubin called out by Omar fiasco. The Daily News rips Omar. Amazin Avenue has an interesting take on Adam Rubin. Back to the baseball field, Luis Castillo went 2/3 with a walk, and saw his OBP rise above .400. He seems to have put the dropped ball behind him. David Wright went 2/3 with a walk, and Daniel Murphy and Cory Sullivan both drove in runs in the 6th inning. Jeff Francoeur homered for the 3rd time as a Met. Great, I just hope he keeps it up. And, for the 3rd straight day, Jerry Manuel did not make a stupid decision, though pinch hitting Tatis could've back fired. If he had done what 6-4-3 Tatis usually does.
Stupid Decision of the Day: None
Random Thought of the Day: How long do we have to have a short bench? Are the Wilpons that cheap now? Also, now that Tony Bernazard is gone, and seeing how Omar messed up the press conferenece, I'd be worried about Omar's job security. Apparently Tony B. was friends with COO Jeff Wilpon.
Clutch Play of the Day: Fernando Tatis hits a pinch hit grand slam. +21.1% WPA.
Up Next for the Mets: Rockies vs Mets, 7:10 PM ET
Mike Pelfrey (7-6 4.99 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 4.88 tRA)
looks to repeat what he did in his last start, and not do the good start bad start routine. He faces the National league Win leader.
Jason Marquis (12-6 3.49 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 3.97 tRA)

Monday, July 27, 2009

Tony Bernazard Fired

Finally, the Mets did something right in upper management. Tony Bernazard, the Mets vp for player development, and the man who challenged the B-Mets players to a fight has been fired. HE also got into an argument with K-Rod, an altercation with Johan, and was the culprit for getting Willie Randolph fired. Omar investigated it, I guess. Omar also called out Adam Rubin for getting Bernazard fired, and stirring up the whole mess. He also alleged that Rubin wanted to get a job with the Mets, that he denied. Seriously, Omar. Blaming Rubin? How long is it before you are fired, Omar Minaya?

A Word about Jeff Francoeur, and his lack of walks

Recently there have been some posts in the Mets blogosphere about how great Jeff Francoeur has been. One of the arguments is that he has 14 RBI's from 12 games, that makes him really good. Joe Morgan would agree to that. Because Morgan would agree with that, its not good. Read FireJoeMorgan. Please. Now, I'm as happy as the next Met fan about how well Francoeur has played. But the lack of walks is worrying. It has been proven that OBP has a higher correlation with scoring runs. RBI's is a teammate dependent stat, that really doesn't measure the contribution of a batter. (RBI/RBI opportunities would be better, but I'm getting ahead of myself) OBP is one of the best (along with OPS, etc) because getting on base is the most important thing you can do. By getting on base means you avoid an out. There are only 27 outs, thats why bunting is usually a bad play. But first a comparison
Batter A
36 PA 32 AB 10 H 1 2b 0 3b 1 HR 2 BB 7 K .313/.338/.438/.780
Batter B
52 PA 49 AB 16 H 2 2b 0 3b 2 HR 0 BB 5 k .327/.327/.490/.817

There is not much difference between these 2. Batter B has more hits, homers, doubles, and a higher slugging and average. Batter A should make up the differences in homers and doubles and hits if he got more playing time. He also has a higher OBP, but lower slugging and OPS. He could make that up though if he got more playing time. Who would you rather have? The guy who is league average in OBP and slugging, and above average in OPS, or the guy who is below average in OBP, above average in slugging, and OPS?
Decide yes? Well, I'd go for Player A.
Player A is Mike Hampton's hitting side.
Player B, as I'm sure you guessed is Jeff Francoeur.
So, really, since joining the Mets, Jeff Francoeur has been no better than Mike Hampton. So why all the hype?

2 in a row; Win 8-3

Usually these days, when you see the other team has scored 3 runs, you think the Mets lost. How is it possible for this offense to get 3 runs? It was true against the Braves, and against the Nats. But, the Mets like it in Houston this year, despite the fact that they historically don't play well their. But this mixture of 3 regulars, and 6 replacements go into Houston, and hit their way to 22 runs, and take the series. It doesn't hurt that we only gave up 11 runs; this is the way to win series, great hitting and good pitching. Livan Hernandez struggled in the first, and was lucky to get out of it (guy caught stealing, guy thrown out at home), but then went 6 more scoreless, and had 7 k's and 1 walk. He gave up 8 hits. PEdro Feliciano and Sean Green came in to pitch the last 2 innings, Green getting the save. Offensively we had 13 hits (4 extra base hits; 3 triples and a double), and 2 walks. The Mets scored 3 in the 3rd to tie up the game, 2 in the fourth, 1 in the eighth and 2 in the ninth to put the game away. Every player who had a plate appearence got a hit, and there were multi hit performences from David Wright (2/5), Luis Castillo (2/4, a walk), and Alex Cora (2/4). And for the second straight day Jerry Manuel did not make a dumb decision! It must equal a personal record. The Jeff Francoeur Walk-O-Meter is still at 0; in fact his OBP is only .0004 higher than his batting average (.3269 to .3265). But the public will point to the fatc that he has 14 RBI's as a Met. Yes, and that is good, but I am concerned about his lousy plate discipline. Still, what do I know? I'm just a blogger, and I don't play professional baseball. I'm sure HoJo is trying to change his approach.
Clutch Play of The Day:
Hunter Pence double play in the fourth. +13.9% WPA.
Up Next: A key 4 game series with the wild card leading Rockies, at home. 7:10 PM ET
Oliver Perez (2-3 7.68 ERA, 6.19 FIP, 7.24 tRA)
looks to try to turn his season around, and convince the Mets that he wasn't a $36 Million Mistake. He'll face
Ubaldo Jimenez (7-9 3.85 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 3.27 tRA)

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Nicely Done Niese, Win 10-3

The New York Mets scored 10 runs, and David Wright hit a home run. Read that again, and then pinch yourself to make sure it wasn't a dream. I had to do that when I saw the final score. From the low of Johan Santana's start came Jonathon Niese's gem. 7 innings, 4 hits, a run, 2 walks, 3 k's. He got 13 groundouts, and 5 flyouts, and lowered his ERA to 4.08. The Mets scored 3 runs in the first inning (when did that last happen) when Pagan singled, and Castillo walked. (Jerry, don't have him bunt.) Murphy, batting in the cleanup spot, doubled in Pagan, Francoeur sac fly, and a Cory Sullivan single. They scored a run in the fourth, Francoeur hit a 3 run homer (2 as a Met) in the 5th, Santos hit a homer (6) in the 6th as they got 2, and David Wright HIT A HOME RUN (6)!!!
We got 12 hits and 4 walks for 16 baserunners, as we scored 10 runs for the first time since June 24th. Every starting Met got a hit except for Cora and Niese. The one blemish on the game was that Francisco Rodriguez gave up a 2 run homer in the 9th, as he was put in to get some work. But all in all, a good day, and the best hitting performence since the Break. We are now 3-6 since the break, a solid .333 winning percentage, and 7.5 back in the wild card. Stranger things have happened, but I really don't see the Mets catching the 7 teams in front of them, unless we get Reyes, Delgado, and Beltran back by August 1.
Gary Sheffield was placed on the 15 day DL, retroactive to July 17, to make room for Niese. So we have a short bench. Again.
Stpuid Decision of the Day: Nothing.
Thought of the Day: Tim Redding, how the hell are you still in the Major Leagues? Seriously, why is he still on the team? If only Niese had come up sooner, instead of having 9 crappy Redding starts.
Jeff Francoeur is now batting .333 with 2 homers and 12 RBI's, making some Mets blogs proclaim he's the next Mickey Mantle. (I exaggerate a little) Remember, before you start saying how great he is, remember he has not walked once yet as a Met, and has a .340 OBP since joining the team only because he got hit by a pitch. I want him to succeed, but he still shows the same crappy plate discipline that got him run out of Atlanta.
Up Next: Mets vs Astros, 2:05 PM, ET
Livan Hernandez (6-5 4.93 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 5.71 tRA)
will look to pitch like he did against Washington; not like he did against Philly and LA. He'll face
Brian Moeher (7-5 4.92 ERA, 4.91 FIP, 4.84 tRA)

Saturday, July 25, 2009

STUPID STUPID STUPID LOSS

A quick word with Johan Santana: Johan, I really like you, but when your team is struggling to win one game a week, and the game we win is when you pitch, so in future, when we score 4 runs, try and limit the opposing team to 3 or less runs, and do not give up a homer to the opposing pitcher. Okay? Good.
Now you Razor Shines: I know the team is struggling to score runs, and you want to manufacture runs, but don't get Jeff Francoeur thrown out at the plate with 2 outs in the 7th inning. Hunter Pence has one of the best arms in the league, with a 8.6 Arm UZR rating last year, and a 2.4 UZR Arm rating this year (UZR is measured in runs above average). In fact, this year his 2.4 Arm is most of his total 2.5 UZR. I know the guy on deck, Omir Santos, only has a .300 OBP, but the guy was 2/3 at that point already, havin homered in his previous at bat. When he batted in the 8th, he singled (alright it was to the 3rd baseman, but whatever). Its decisions like these that cost the Mets games. We don't have a lot of offence, so you can't go and make dumb decisions, because we won't score again, and we didn't score again, though we did have 1st and 3rd, 2 outs in the 8th, and Castillo up. The Mets left 10 on; the fact that they got 18 on is pretty amazin.
Stupid Decision of the Day: So obvious. Razor Shines sending Francouer home with 2 out in the 7th on a single by Murphy.
Thought of the Day: Mike Hamton has a higher OBP than all of our team, except Wright, Pagan, Castillo, and Sheffield (who might go on DL, Saturday is decision day). We should try and get Hampton. Not for pitching. To play the outfield/first base.
Coming up for the Mets: Mets vs Astros, 7:05 PM ET.
Jonathon Niese (0-0, 5.91 ERA, 1.73 FIP!!)
looks to show Mets management he should stay in the rotation permanently by bringing his recent AAA success to New York. He faces
Russ Ortiz (3-4, 4.33 ERA, 4.25 FIP)

Friday, July 24, 2009

The Day in Review, whats next

Its been a big day in baseball, but not for the Mets.
  • ESPN reports that Matt Holliday has been traded to the Cardinals by the A's for 3 prospects.
  • The Phillies are close to acquiring Roy Halladay, according to Metsblog. So give them the divison. Wait they're not close. Wait they are. Just do it already. Next year's gonna suck too, if they have Halladay
  • John Maine is heading to Dr James Andrews after having pain in his shoulder. May be shut down. He has only made 36 starts in the last two years. At this point, he is a waste of money, especially if they're short on money after Madoff. See if he will sign a lower deal in the winter, maybe $900,000 plus incentives.
  • From the same story Jose Reyes ran the bases. He may be back soon, will run full speed on Saturday. Knowing our luck, he'll tear his hamstring, and will be out for the rest of the year.
Coming up for the Mets: 3 at Houston. Starts today, at 8:05 PM ET.
Johan Santana (11-7, 2.92 ERA, 3.73 FIP) looks to have another quality start. Last two starts: 14 IP, 0 R, 10 K's, 3BB, 10 H. He faces
Mike Hampton (5-7, 4.63 ERA, 4.11 FIP)

Jon Niese starts tomorrow!!! Yay!!!

A little explanation

Okay, some of the terms I use are a bit hard to understand. So, I'm going to explain them.
OBP: On base percentage. Read Moneyball. It counts walks and HBP. League Average is .330, good is .350, very good is .360 +, and great is .400. H+BB+HBP/AB+BB+HBP+SF
SLG: Slugging percentage. TB/AB or 1b+2*2b+3*3b+4*hr/ab
OPS: on base plus slugging. OBP+SLG. Correlates the most with scoring runs.
EqA: Equivalent Average. A stat developed by Clay Davenport of Baseball Propsectus, it is like OPS, except on a batting average scale.
EqR: Equivalent Runs. The run companion stat to EqA. Think of it like RBI.
Runs Created: Created by Bill James, the simple form is OBP*TB or OBP*SLG*PA where TB is total bases and PA is plate appearences. Think of it like RBI in the amount.
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching, (13*hr+3*bb-2*k)/ip+3.2. On a ERA scale, measures what the ERA should be, defense and luck independent.
tRA: trure run average. Maybe the best way to measure pitchers. It is hard to explain here, but it basically measures what the pitchers ERA should be based on the amount of times a pitcher gives up a groundball, flyball, strikes someone out, gives up a line drive, home run, or walks someone. Each event is give a run value and out value. More here.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Lost season. Lose, 3-1

We just lost 2 out of 3 to the worst team in baseball. Wait, Jerry you managed to lose to yourself? Are you that bad of a manager? Yes, we are now the worst team in baseball. But really, this series loss is not Jerry Manuel's fault. I mean, his lineup order that was discussed is pretty idiotic (Brian Schneider is the 3rd best hitter on the team right now. Bat him fourth, Jerry), but this is Omar Minaya's fault. Omar Minaya did not provide the Mets with a good enough bench, or a good enough starting rotation. You had in your starting rotation Wild Oliver Perez, and John Maine who was injured the year before. You also had a possible pitcher who might suffer from the Verducci Effect, Mike Pelfrey (who had a good outing yesterday) and if anyone got injured you would call on Tim Redding, Livan Hernandez and Freddy Garcia. The bench sucks as well; I mean Cory Sullivan and Angel Berroa? Come on Omar. ( Angel Berroa was also discussed) Also, why is Nick Evans not up? He's definately better then Cory Sullivan, especially against lefties. (.500/.583/.500 in 10 PA's)
Our offense is so inept that Craig Stammen was throwing a perfect game through 4; we scored 1 run when Angel Pagan got an inside the park home run that was suspiciously close to one I got in Little League. On the pitching side, Mike Pelfrey rebounded with a 7 inning 3 run start; on most days he'd win, but he got the Santana Treatment yesterday. He also got the Santana Treatment on defense as Jeff Francoeur did his best job as impersonating a drunk guy playing right field. (If you haven't seen it, and you can stomach it, go here) That would've meant that Willingham's homer was only a solo shot. In the 8th, the Mets had a chance to tie the game with runners at first and second. Fernando 6-4-3 Tatis did not hit into a double play; he popped out to first. Daniel Murphy flied out to left, effectively ending the Mets hope of winning this game.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Luis Castillo, getting yourself ejected. That's Jerry's job. Also, Jerry, batting Schneider 8th. He's your 3rd best hitter. Bat him fourth. Jeff Francoeur's impersonation of a drunk guy.He looked worse then Luis Castillo on the dropped pop up. Failcouer tee-shirts are available.
Random Thought of the Day: How much longer do Mets fans put up with this? Who will got to Citi Field? Seriously.
Up Next:
Day off. Then start a 3 game series against Houston. We'll lose 2 out of 3.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

My take on how the Mets can be fixed, Part One

First of all, this season is a lost season. In my opinion, there is no way that the Mets are going to come back. So, if the injured players aren't ready by August 1, shut them down for the rest of the year. Sadly this year, and 2010 must be regarded as a rebuilding year. So how do you rebuild these Mets? Luckily, there are some propsects in AAA and AA that should be ready for the Major Leagues by the middle of 2010 and the beginning of 2011.
Starting Pitching
For the rest of this year, Jon Niese should be in the starting rotation, and Nelson Figueroa should be too. Figgy is not part of the future, but with a 2.96 FIP in AAA deserves a chance to be in the majors. He can't be worse than Livan Hernandez, right? According to Baseball Propsectus' minor league translation stats, Figueroa has a 3.67 DERA. (DERA is a defense independent pitching stat measuring what your ERA should've been based on your strikeout rate, walk rate, home run rate, and groundball percentage) Livan Hernandez has a 5.05 DERA. If Brad Holt, and Jenrry Mejia pitch well in AA this year, and pitch well in the beginning of their 2010 AAA season, (If they're there), bring them up as well. There needs to be youth in the rotation. Also, if you can dump Perez, I would do that, but sadly we're stuck with him. Roy Halladay is a free agent in 2010, but I wouldn't sign him just because it will be a lot of money for someone who is turning 34 in 2011.
2011 Rotation: Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Holt/Maine/Mejia, Perez
Relief Pitching
Not much of a future in the team. The only one that we hear about is Eddie Kunz, but he has fallen from grace recently. The bullpen will probably be K-Rod, Parnell, and some other guys to fill out the relief corps. Kunz could be a middle reliever, if he has sucess at AAA, which he has not had so far.
Offensively
Catcher
Brian Schneider is a free agent after this year, and I would not resign him, if it was possible to sign Victor Martinez, though that is unlikely, seeing as how he wants to retire as a Indian, and has an option. Instead, I would resign Schneider, just becuase he's the best available, and have Josh Thole develop. Thole is a good hitter, batting .341/.409/.449 so far in AA, which is translated to a major league .291/.335/.408. The problem is that he isn't a very good defensive catcher so far, and his other position is first base, which he doesn't have enough power for. Which is why I would resign Schneider, have Thole in AAA for the rest of 2009, and part of 2010, and call him up in 2010, and have Schneider help him defensively, so he can be the starter in 2011.
Part 2 will cover the rest of the infield.
Free Agent class information was got from Cot's Baseball Contracts

No Offense, no pitching, lose 4-0

With this lineup, you knew we wouldn't score that many: Pagan, Castillo, Wright, Francoeur, Tatis, Murphy, Santos, Cora, Perez .(Why the *$%# is Tatis ahead of Murphy) And with Oliver Perez pitching, you knew there would be a lot of walks (6 for christ sakes), and they'd probably score 3 runs in 6 innings. They scored 4; we got no runs off of John Lannan, who threw his second complete game (both against the Mets), and threw his first career shutout. The Mets got 7 hits, and struck out once, the hits coming from 1-4 in the lineup, and the #6, Daniel Murphy. Jeff Francoeur got 2 hits, but he still has not walked as a New York Met. Fernando 6-4-3 Tatis grounded into a double play, and went 0-4. Seriously, why did he bat fifth? With the Phillies win, the Mets are 10 back; Omar, your plan of staying .500 til the All Star Break, and a little after, didn't work. One of the reasons is that we're 5 under. Its a sad day in Queens when Angel Berroa gets a pinch hit at bat when we are down 4-0. Oh, and Jeff Francoeur dropped a fly ball, got someone out at second, but a run scored. Didn't we get him partly for his DEFENSE Omar?
Stupid Decision of the Day: Putting Fernando Tatis in the lineup. We know his swing is too long, even Tim McCarver pointed it out, don't play him until he fixes it. Also, why is a guy batting .242/.312/.382 batting fifth? Can't Murphy bat fifth?
Thought of the Day: Tatis has grounded into more double plays this year (11) in 108 less plate appearences then he did last year (7). Scary.
Up Next:Mets vs Nationals, 7:05 PM ET
Mike Pelfrey (7-5, 5.07 ERA, 4.17 FIP)
looks to rebound from his last start.
Craig Stammen (2-5, 4.46 ERA, 4.06 FIP)
looks to improve on his 7.20 ERA against the Mets.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Win 6-2

I really like the Washington Nationals, and so do the Mets, and Livan Hernandez. Against the Nats, the Mets are 8-2, and Livan Hernandez is 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA. 1.17. Against everyone else, he is 3-5 with a 5.95 ERA. Sadly, we only have 8 games left against our favorite team, other then the Metropolitans of New York. The key to yesterday's game was the fact that we got early runs of off J.D. Martin, and also that Daniel Murphy is looking very good at first base. And Jeff Francoeur hit his first homer as a Met, around the same time Ryan Church hit his first homer as a Brave.
However, you know, and I know it is going to take a miracle for us to come back. We're 6.5 back of Colarado, and the Phillies were 7 back with 17 of us, but they're so many teams ahead of us, that every team would have to have a collapse. Also, I think management is of the opinion that we won't come back, seeing as they rejected a Halladay deal proposal. I would've done it, if Alexis Rios was involved. From what I hear of Ruben Tejada he will be a good glove no hit shortstop, Parnell has been okay, I like F-Mart despite the fact that he was crap when he was up, and Niese has been good as well. But we coluld have Johan and Halladay, that would be the best 1-2 in baseball. Rios has not been that great this year (.321 OBP, .328 wOBA (weighted OBP)), but he has a projected rest of season wOBA of .354, which is fine.
Stupid Play of the Game: None.
Thought of the Day: We need Sheff back, or have Evans play left. Jeremy Reed went 0-4, and saw 8 pitches. 8. Thats worse then Omir Santos.
Also, Roy Halladay has a 2.75 FIP. He strikes out a lot of people, doesn't walk many, and doesn't give up many homers. I like this.
Up Next: Mets at Nationals, 7:05 PM
Oliver Perez (2-2, 7.99 ERA, 6.35 FIP)
John Lannan (6-7, 3.64 ERA, 4.76 FIP)

Monday, July 20, 2009

Optimal Mets Lineup

Here is the Mets lineup versus the Nationals
Pagan
Castillo
Murphy
Wright
Francoeur
Reed
Cora
Schneider
L. Hernandez

Using this useful tool I'm looking to see how many runs this lineup should score per game. They will also list better options in the lineup order.
Note: I was originally going to do this before Sheffield went down. Once he comes back, and he plays a few games, I'll redo it. Same for when/ if Reyes, Beltran and Delgado come back.

Tonight's lineup: 3.747 RPG. That means, if we want to win games, we have to score 3.75 rpg, and allow less then 3.75. The team ERA is 4.37. With this lineup, we are definitely a .450 team.
Best lineup: 4.108 RPG.
Castillo
Wright
Reed
Schneider (amazin avenue has a post about where he hits)
Pagan
Francoeur
Murphy
Hernandez
Cora.
I hope Jerry Manuel reads this. But I know he won't.

Another Game, Another Loss, Another Injury

Lets take the positives from this game: Jon Niese will now be in the rotation.
Lets take the Negatives: We lost 7-1. With the loss, we are now 9 back of Philadelphia, we lose 3 out of 4 to Atlanta, Fernando Nieve is gone from the rotation, not Livan Hernandez, and Fernando Nieve has a strained right quad, that I fully expect to become a torn right quad. He has an MRI scheduled for today. I really do not understand why Jerry wanted Luis Castillo to bunt Pagan over after he doubled to lead off the game. Castillo has the second best OBP on the team (among active players), and with runs at a premium, don't you want people to get on base so you can score runs? Joe Morgan liked the play, so that should definately send up a red flag. Tim Redding continued to show why he should not be a major league pitcher, and Elmer Dessens and Pat Misch put gasoline on the fire.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Having Castillo bunt Pagan to third in the first inning. If it was Cora, or Francouer, okay, but Castillo and his .388 OBP? No.
Thought of the Day: The Mets are worse then the Buffalo Bisons right now. They have better pitching.
Up Next: Mets at Washington, 7:10 ET.
Livan Hernandez (5-5, 5.10 ERA, 4.70 FIP)
J.D. Martin (NO RECORD, 8-3, 2.66 ERA, 2.77 FIP in AAA Syracuse)

Sunday, July 19, 2009

WIN! 5-1

That was a good win. Great pitching from Johan, adding runs in the 9th, and Brian Stokes coming in and getting the job done in the 8th. David Wright got walked intentionally 3 times due to the absence of Gary Sheffield, and the incompetence of hitters behind him. Expect more of this in the future. The Mets got 9 hits, and 6 walks, went 3/14 with RISP, left 9 on, but scored 5 runs, which will be the weeks ration, so expect us to be shutout tomorrow. If Stokes had walked Norton, like he almost did, Jerry not bringing K-Rod in would've been a problem for me. He hadn't pitched since Tuesday, so whats the problem with bringing him in for the 4 out save? The leverage index (leverage index is a stat that measures the importance of a play, 1 is normal) when Stokes struck out Norton was 7.74! Baseball Prospectus' book Baseball Between The Numbers recommends bringing in your closer before the 9th inning if the leverage index exceeds 2.32, and if the closer had not pitched for 2 days straight. K-Rod had not pitched in for 2 days straight, and when he came in with a 4 run lead, his average leverage was .26. Obviously though he had to come in because he was warmed, and the Mets did score 3 insurance runs, and if they hadn't scored at all, his leverage would be higher. Jerry flipped the coin, and it came out heads.
Stupid Play of The Day
None. Stokes blowing the game would've become the stupid play of the day, but luckily for the Mets, and Mets fan, that didn't happen.
Transaction move:
We're getting Julio Lugo, and Tim Redding will be gone. Julio Lugo should be better than Angel Berroa, and better offensively then Alex Cora. Defensively though, at shortstop he has a -8.2 UZR this year (ultimate zone rating, runs above average, Lugo is 8.2 runs below average), and -43.2 UZR/150. Thats scary.
Coming Up:
Mets at Atlanta, 6:00 PM EST, ESPN (dammit have to listen to Joe Morgan and Jon Miller)
Nieve (3-3, 3.03 ERA, 4.82 FIP (he's been really lucky this year))
Vazquez (6-7, 2.95 ERA, 2.49 FIP (A FIP below his ERA means he's been a little unlucky this year))

Saturday, July 18, 2009

What the @&^$ happened?

?????
11-0. We lost 11-0. We got 2 hits, and from what it looks like, Sheff hurt his hamstring. Because its the Mets medical staff, he'll be out for the rest of the year. But seriously? 11-0. That was just embarrassing. Pelfrey continues to be an up and down pitcher; he has one good start, one bad, especially recently: good start against Florida (7.2ip, 1 r), bad against Pittsburgh (3.2ip, 9 r), okay against Philly (6ip, 4r,2er), okay against Baltimore (5.2ip,2r), bad against Tampa (5ip, 4r), okay against the yankees (5ip,4r,2er) then great against Milwaukee (7.2ip, 0r), crap against LA (3ip, 5 r, 4er), then good against Cincy (7ip, 3 er) before last nights start. He is not consistent, and that is a problem for the Mets, because then we only have 1 dependable pitcher.
Stupid Decision of the Day
Not forefeiting after 5 innings.

Random thought: How is Tim Redding still a major league pitcher?

Up next: Atlanta, 4:00 on FOX (yay, get humiliated on national TV)
Johan Santana (10-7, 3.09 ERA, 3.81 FIP)
Kenshin Kawakami (5-6, 4.26 ERA, 4.38 FIP)

Friday, July 17, 2009

Glossary of terms links

For most go here
otherwise go to this site, and select in the category select offense, defense, etc.

Starting the 2nd Half on a bad foot

So, in Jeff Francoeur's return to Atlanta, he gets a nice standing ovation, lines into a double play (not his fault), goes 0-4 with an RBI groundout, and the Mets lose, 5-3. Oliver Perez was like his last start out, except he only walked 4, and he got his era just under 8 at 7.99. No, we lost because our offense could only get 3 runs, and the lineup is ridiculously top heavy. 1-4 got 5 hits, and only Murphy, batting 6th got the other Mets hit. We also lost because our bullpen was worse then theirs, as in, ours (thanks to messrs Feliciano and Parnell) gives up 2, and theirs nothing.
Stupid Decision of the Day
The only one I can think of is letting Misch pitch to Anderson and Diaz. They've been good against lefties, especially Diaz who is at a .365/.422/.514 clip against them. And right handed, and he sucks against righties. But then Kotchman is good against righties, and sucks against lefties, so I'm just rambling here. This is only a small stupid move.

Hopefully Mets win tonight.
Pelfrey (7-4, 4.47 ERA, 4.00 FIP)
Jurrjens (7-7, 2.91 ERA, 3.81 FIP)


Thursday, July 16, 2009

Angel Berroa

I understand the Mets must have an middle infielder, but is there really no one in the organization who is better than Angel Berroa? Looking at the translated stats at baseball prospectus (which is a very useful tool) there are 3 players in Buffalo who are better than Angel Berroa and his .094 EqA. (equivalent average-- a baseball prospectus stat that uses a batting average scale: .260 is average, .300 is good, .220 sucks.) They are Javier Castillo (.272), a shortstop, and Luis Rivera (.226), a shortstop, and someone we already saw, Wilson Valdez (.222 EqA). So why someone the Yankees released? I mean, all of these guys can play second and short. I know its not a big move to be pissed about, but its the principle. If a guys sucks on the Yankees, how is he going to be any better on the Mets (granted the Yankees are much much better then us).

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

+/-1 for Jerry

So, I lied. I will post during the all star break, only because Jerry Manuel said a smart/interesting thing. According to Metsblog, the first starter who has 3 bad starts in a row will be removed from the rotation with Jon Niese. While, this is obviously pointed at Livan Hernandez, what if he has 3 good starts in a row now, and Johan Santana has 3 bad ones in a row. I applaud the decision to replace someone because Niese has been good, but I don't applaud the fact that he said 3 bad starts in a row. Livan just plain sucks now. Replace him now. Also, Jerry what qualifies as a good start?

Monday, July 13, 2009

Introduction to MetsMD

Now, this is not going to be a blog that just rants at Jerry Manuel and the Mets. I'm going to use stats to back up what I say. I know that Jerry has had his hands tied recently about the injuries, I can't blame those on him. But I can blame him for benching Daniel Murphy for Fernando Tatis (after Murphy goes 2-4, or something like that), or bullpen mismanagement. So, after every game I will write the stupid things Jerry Manuel did in the previous game. And if there are none, I'll write about something else. I will also write about how I would fix the Mets, if you want to know. So, enjoy the all star break, I'll get started after that, and Lets Go Mets.