What the 2009 Mets could've been

Seeing as Omar and Jerry are staying, I wanted another good reason to have them fired. So, I decided to project the Mets win total in 2009 if no one was injured. I used Wins Above Replacement, which can be found at www.fangraphs.com. There were a couple of rules: Players who had had injuries last year that forced them miss significant time (10 games+ in one stretch) could get injured this year. Thus, Carlos Delgado, John Maine, Oliver Perez and JJ Putz all get injured in this year's version along with Ryan Church and Angel Pagan. Also, if a player was called up due to injury, and would not get called up unless in September does not appear. (Sucks for you, Argenis Reyes). Also, I am going by 4.5 PA/G for starters. wOBA stays the same for hitters, as does UZR.
For pitchers, I used the guide that fangraphs has. So, a pitcher's FIP (fielding Independent Pitching) is divided by .92 to convert it to a scale with Run Average. It is then divided by the Park Factor to normalize it (I think...). I used ESPN's Park Factors, which was .94 for Citi Field. Also, for the league RA FIP, I used 4.53, the NL RA.
So, the 2009 New York Mets, who do not lose Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Johan Santana finish 82-80. Feeling proud, Omar and Jerry?
Carlos Beltran has an awesome year, with a 6.5 WAR. David Wright has a 4 WAR. Because Fernando Nieve doesn't start, he gets 15 appearences out of the pen, 30 innings (2 per G) and has a war of 3.5. I know, it's fantasy, but I was just going by what I got, so bear with me.
Billy Wagner does not get traded for Chris Carter, and appears in 15 games. Ramon Castro still gets traded, Angel Pagan doesn't play in as many games, and Cory Sullivan doesn't play at all. Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey each have 33 starts, Tim Redding gets 20, Nelson Figueroa gets 19 starts.
I know this isn't the most accurate way of figuring out what the Mets could've been, but it wasn't extremely hard, and still paints the main picture: The Mets are a .500 team, and Omar Minaya did not give this team enough starting pitching depth, and the starting pitching wasn't good enough. It also shows that this team needs a good offensive outfielder and first baseman, as we knew about. What I'm mainly trying to say here is that the Mets bad season this year was not just due to injury; it was also due to lack of good starting pitching, starting pitching depth, and the need for an outfielder who is good offensively.
Update: The spreadsheet

Fire Omar?

Aidan, I know you're upset. But seriously, could anyone have predicted the extent of these injuries? The Mets have lost practically all of their decent players. Those injuries had nothing to do with management. Maybe Frankie blew a few saves, but really, all closers do that. And it makes sense for a manager to go to his $37 million investment. After spending that much money on someone, you can't not use him in the only situation where he would be used. This season was lost for the Mets, but it was not the fault of Jerry or Omar. I don't really know why I'm defending them, but maybe it's because you hate on them incessantly.
Just for the record, Boston is 7 up in the Wild Card.

Another Great move by Jerry

Mets won today, recap later
But some news: Jerry Manuel is going to platoon Josh Thole when he is up. He'll only face righties. BTW, it's pronounced toll-ee.
Josh Thole vs righties: .328/.396/.437/.833
Josh Thole vs lefties: .328/.391/.388/.779
granted they are MiLB stats

Omir Santos vs lefties:
.234/.268/.377/.645
congrats, Jerry

Oh Stokes. Lose 5-2

Usually when the bullpen lows the game this year, Brian Stokes is not involved and/or did not come into the game. But in fact, Stokes did the blowing, though Jerry did not help. After giving up a double to Milton Bradley, a Derek Lee flyout moved Bradley to third. Jerry then moved the infield in. This decision backfired as Ramirez singled just past Wilson Valdez at short. If Valdez had been playing back, maybe Bradley doesn't score; even if he does, there are two outs. Baker then walked, and then bad pitch calling by Santos/dugout meant Stokes hung a curveball for Soriano to jack out of the park. Elmer Dessens came in to finish the inning, but the damage was done, and the good work that Pat Misch had done was all gone. Misch didn't strike out a lot (2 and one was Tedy Lilly), but he was effective in keeping Cubs of the bases, and runs of the socreboard. He only gave up 6 hits, and he walked 2. He got 9 ground outs, and 9 flyouts, and deserves another start (other options: Lance Broadway ugghh and Dessens ughh). Also, he could probably be effective at Citi Field if he gets 9 flyouts; the big outfield should make it easier for flyballs to be caught. The Cubs got on the board first, in the first, but the Mets tied it up in the second, when Francoeur doubled, Tatis singled him to third, and the Santos hit a pop up that Bradley dropped at his shoetops. It was called a hit, and Francoeur scored. The Mets could've scored more but Sullivan lined out to Baker, Valdez grounded out and Misch struck out. The Mets got the lead in the 8th, when Pagan doubled, and Castillo bunted him to third. I had a problem with this, but I'll discuss later. Murphy walked, Francoeur struck out, but Tatis doubled off the ivy, as Pagan scored. Murphy was thrown out at the plate, which was dumb, so the inning was over. The Mets went quietly in the 9th, despite Santos' walk.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Jerry having Castillo bunt Pagan over. Not only does it give the Bus an out they don't deserve, but it also lowers the Run Expectation for the inning:
Before: Runner at second, none out:1.14103
After: Runner at Third, one out: 0.96654
It also lowers the Win Expectancy from 54.17% t0 50%. And not only that, Castillo is your best hitter. He is the best player at getting on base (.404 OBP). So you shouldn't be bunting with him. Murphy walked, s0 if Castillo had gotten on base (via a walk, infield single or run scoring single) the bases could be loaded. Pagan would've socred on Tatis' double anyway. So, unless it's the pitcher, or the bottom of the 9th, no bunting Jerry.
Random Thought of the Day: I really hope this rumor that the Wilpons have to sell is true. If it is, I propose the fans own the team, and every year there is an election for President, who represents the club.
Clutch Play of the Game: Tatis double. +.179 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets: mets at Cubs, 4:10 PM ET (FOX)
Bobby Parnell (3-6 5.08 ERA 4.17 FIP 4.21 tRA) tries to make it 3 quality starts in a row. He'll face
Ryan Dempster (7-7 4.07 ERA 4.23 FIP 4.99 tRA)
Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™: We're now the #9 pick!!!! Only 5 back (ahead) of Baltimore for #3. We can do it guys! Bryce Harper here we come!!!

No, its not a bad dream. Lose, 9-7

Yes, that did happen. The Mets lost with an unassisted triple play. Way to lose 103,476.
Oliver Perez went .2 innings, and gave up 6 runs. He was pulled with a 3-0 count on Pedro effing Martinez for christ sakes. However, Angel Pagan hit 2 homers off of Pedro Martinez, one inside the park, and one outside. Pedro went 6, gave up 4, walked 1, struck out 5. It is exactly the kind of start he would have for us last year. A day after his blown save, Pat Misch provided good 4 inning scoreless relief. Elmer Dessens pitched a scoreless 9th, but Sean Green gave up a run in the 8th, making it the 3rd straight game he has done that, and 7 out of the last 10. Nelson Figueroa went 2.1, and gave up 2 runs. He now has an ERA of 6.30, a 7.60 tRA and a 5.99 FIP. Jeff Francoeur tripled in the first, with one out, and it could've been 6-3, but both Sullivan and Tatis failed. Fast forward to the ninth, where Angel Pagan reaches third on a Ryan Howard error (BUCKNER!!!). Then Bruntlett boots Castillo's grounder to make it 9-7. Then Murphy does the same except it's an infield single. So there are none out, and the tying run at the plate is Jeff Francoeur. The count is 2-2, and then Jerry inexplicably sends the runners, and Francoeur lines it up the middle. Bruntlett, who is covering second catches it, tags second, and then tags Murphy for the unassisted triple play. It would've been a single if the runners don't go. And thats how the Mets lost. Jerry, trying to stay out of the double play, got the triple play.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Sending the runners. Oh why Jerry. You played the effing dice, Jerry, you played the effing dice. You seriously are a dice player with the way you manage.
Random Thought of the Day: Aren't you glad we have Oliver Perez for the next 2 years, at $24 mill/per. Ollie threw the same amount of pitches in the first, as Misch did in 4.
Clutch Play of the Game: Murphy single in 9th. +.144 WPA
Up Next for the Mets: The finale of the 4 game set with the Phillies
Bobby Parnell (3-5, 4.74 ERA 3.70 FIP 3.77 tRA) will attempt to picth more than .2 of an inning
Cliff Lee (4-0, 0.82 ERA 1.66 FIP .77 tRA) is awesome.
Take heart Mets fans. While me might have lost by a dropped pop up, walk off walk, grand slam, and go ahead wild pitch, we still have not lost on a walk off balk or catcher's interference. Or someone stealing home.

This is Painful. Lose 10-1

The big news of the evening was that Steven Strasburg signed a 4 year deal worth $15 million. Great. The whole point to lose these games was so we could get Strasburg. We were the only team that could afford him. The Mets signed there top pick, Steven Matz. Glad Fred Wilpon can still shell out $895,000 to him. You know what the Mets could get for $895,000? A pitcher who is better than Livan Hernandez (they could get someone like that for $400,000).
But, back to the game. Livan was terrible. Absolutely godawful suckyness. 5.1 innings of 6 run baseball. JERRY EXPLAIN TO ME WHY HE IS STILL ON THE TEAM?????????? He has a 5.72 DERA (Baseball Prospectus ERA scaled stat, defence independent, and I'm using it because I get minor league translations). You know who has a lower translated DERA for Buffalo? (And who is younger) Tobi Stoner (5.29), Kyle Snyder (5.29). You know who has that at Binghamton? Ryan Coultas (4.06) and Chris Mason (3.38). Not to mention Nelson Figueroa who is in the bullpen (gave up a run today). At this point Tim Redding could be better. Actually, probably not. Seeing as he gave up 3 runs in an inning. And we scored 1 run. And guess who is pitching tonight: Oliver Perez. When does it end? I mean, come on. I think when Livan pitches and when we have expanded rosters, the AAA AA team should play. Alex Cora went on the DL to have surgery for his ligament. Well, he showed grission by playing for 3 months with that injury.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Cory Sullivan getting thrown out at home in the first. Using Win Expectancy, the break even point is 124%. That means that he has to be safe on those plays 124% of the time for it to be a good decision. Obviously, thats impossible. So using Run Expectancy we see that the break even point is 77%. So Sullivan has to take the extra base successfully 77% of the time. And Francoeur was on deck. Francoeur probably would not have hit into a double play, as he's only hit into 1 as a Met. So Razor Shines, shame on you.
Random Thought of the Day: You know its a sad state of affairs when the lead story on Mets.com is about David Wright's leadership. When he is on the DL (he's the leader of the people on the DL, there's almost enough for a whole team!)
Clutch Play of the Game: Sheffield RBI single in the third. +.112 WPA(*100 to get%)
The Next Torture Session for Fans: Braves at Mets 7:10 PM ET
Oliver Perez (2-3 5.97 ERA, 5.83 FIP, 6.48 tRA) looks to make this torture quick.
Derek Lowe (12-7, 4.08 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 4.32 tRA) will throw a no hitter.

Introduction to MetsMD

Now, this is not going to be a blog that just rants at Jerry Manuel and the Mets. I'm going to use stats to back up what I say. I know that Jerry has had his hands tied recently about the injuries, I can't blame those on him. But I can blame him for benching Daniel Murphy for Fernando Tatis (after Murphy goes 2-4, or something like that), or bullpen mismanagement. So, after every game I will write the stupid things Jerry Manuel did in the previous game. And if there are none, I'll write about something else. I will also write about how I would fix the Mets, if you want to know. So, enjoy the all star break, I'll get started after that, and Lets Go Mets.