What the 2009 Mets could've been

Seeing as Omar and Jerry are staying, I wanted another good reason to have them fired. So, I decided to project the Mets win total in 2009 if no one was injured. I used Wins Above Replacement, which can be found at www.fangraphs.com. There were a couple of rules: Players who had had injuries last year that forced them miss significant time (10 games+ in one stretch) could get injured this year. Thus, Carlos Delgado, John Maine, Oliver Perez and JJ Putz all get injured in this year's version along with Ryan Church and Angel Pagan. Also, if a player was called up due to injury, and would not get called up unless in September does not appear. (Sucks for you, Argenis Reyes). Also, I am going by 4.5 PA/G for starters. wOBA stays the same for hitters, as does UZR.
For pitchers, I used the guide that fangraphs has. So, a pitcher's FIP (fielding Independent Pitching) is divided by .92 to convert it to a scale with Run Average. It is then divided by the Park Factor to normalize it (I think...). I used ESPN's Park Factors, which was .94 for Citi Field. Also, for the league RA FIP, I used 4.53, the NL RA.
So, the 2009 New York Mets, who do not lose Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Johan Santana finish 82-80. Feeling proud, Omar and Jerry?
Carlos Beltran has an awesome year, with a 6.5 WAR. David Wright has a 4 WAR. Because Fernando Nieve doesn't start, he gets 15 appearences out of the pen, 30 innings (2 per G) and has a war of 3.5. I know, it's fantasy, but I was just going by what I got, so bear with me.
Billy Wagner does not get traded for Chris Carter, and appears in 15 games. Ramon Castro still gets traded, Angel Pagan doesn't play in as many games, and Cory Sullivan doesn't play at all. Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey each have 33 starts, Tim Redding gets 20, Nelson Figueroa gets 19 starts.
I know this isn't the most accurate way of figuring out what the Mets could've been, but it wasn't extremely hard, and still paints the main picture: The Mets are a .500 team, and Omar Minaya did not give this team enough starting pitching depth, and the starting pitching wasn't good enough. It also shows that this team needs a good offensive outfielder and first baseman, as we knew about. What I'm mainly trying to say here is that the Mets bad season this year was not just due to injury; it was also due to lack of good starting pitching, starting pitching depth, and the need for an outfielder who is good offensively.
Update: The spreadsheet

Why Jeff Francoeur for 3 years is a bad idea

According to mets.com (Marty Noble) the Mets want to sign Francoeur for 3 years.
Here's the quote:
"The Mets believe Francoeur will look sharp in their 2010 uni, so much so that they are inclined to approach him about signing him to a three-year contract that would allow him to become a big league Beau Brummel, if he so chose. They like what they have seen of him in and out of uniform -- from his spirited demeanor to his nuclear arm to the two doubles he produced Saturday afternoon in their victory against the Nationals."
I won't even go over the "Beau Brummel" part (should Frenchy's cleats be coated with the champagne from 2007 that Willie Randolph never got to use?). How about the fact, that even if Francoeur look's good he still sucks. Sure, he's hitting .280. You know what his OBP is? .309. Cannon arm? Yeah, he has a good arm. He sucks at the rest of defence though, according to UZR. If he has such a great arm, make him a pitcher. Then he has value as a hitter.
You want a 3 year contract, Noble? For a guy who has been worth -9.1 runs? He has been worse offensively than an average hitter. The track record is against him. He has the worst plate discipline on the team, swinging at 35% of pitches outside the strikezone. He is not good at baseball. You know who's better, and cheaper? Bobby Abreu. So, for once, Omar/Wilpons/who ever is the GM, make the right effing decision. Because if we sign Francoeur for 3 years, I'm done.

Fire Omar?

Aidan, I know you're upset. But seriously, could anyone have predicted the extent of these injuries? The Mets have lost practically all of their decent players. Those injuries had nothing to do with management. Maybe Frankie blew a few saves, but really, all closers do that. And it makes sense for a manager to go to his $37 million investment. After spending that much money on someone, you can't not use him in the only situation where he would be used. This season was lost for the Mets, but it was not the fault of Jerry or Omar. I don't really know why I'm defending them, but maybe it's because you hate on them incessantly.
Just for the record, Boston is 7 up in the Wild Card.

IT's all pathetic, lose 6-2

First of all, Johan Santana has a sore elbow, and has been pitching with a sore back since the all-star break. Why. Did. They. Let. Him. Continue. To. Pitch? I sometimes wonder whether the Mets doctors, Omar Minaya, and Jerry Manuel have a brain. He might need season ending surgery. From the same article, we learn that Jeff Francoeur has a torn ligament in his none throwing hand from making a diving catch. Jeff, I urge you to go on the DL. Nevermind your grissiony record of not going on the DL, just do it. Its for your own sake. Jeff Francoeur, you are now a true Met.
And now to the game. Bobby Parnell gave up a 3 run homer to Howard in the first, and then another homer to Howard in the third, this time a 2 run homer. Angel Pagan led off the first with a pop up that Chase Utley dropped, then overthrew second, throwing the ball into left field. Pagan scored with what Gary Cohen called "a little league homer". Gary Sheffield hit a triple, and scored on Tatis' sac fly. However, that would be all offensively for the Mets, as Cliff Lee was his dominant self, scattering 6 hits, striking out 5, and walking none. He lowered his ERA to 0.68, as both runs were unearned. He has a .86 tRA, which equates to about a 0.79 tERA (the rule of thumb is to multiply tRA by .92 to get tERA, because about 92% of all runs are earned). Feliciano gave up a run in the 9th, but Brad Lidge shut the Mets down anyway.
Parnell went 5 innings, gave up 5 runs, struck out 3 and walked 3. The good thing about Parnell is that he does have a 50.8 groundball percentage. The bad news is that he has a 5.68 tRA as a starter (5.23 tERA), and his FIP is about 5.50. I would keep him in the rotation for the rest of the year, but next year, have him be a reliever again.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Not having Johan shut down earlier. Pitching with a sore back since the all-star break when you have nothing to play for does not show good management.
Random Thought of the Day: Luis Castillo needs to be wrapped in bubble wrap. And maybe have a bubble. Hey, Ken Takahashi and his 4.88 tRA is back.
Clutch Play of the Game: Pagan little league home run. +.085 WPA
Up Next f0r the Mets: Start of a 3 game series at Florida, 7:10 PM ET
Nelson Figueroa (1-2, 6.30 ERA 5.99 FIP 7.60 tRA) takes Johan's place. He faces
Sean West (4-5 4.70 ERA 4.89 FIP 5.10 tRA)

This is Painful. Lose 10-1

The big news of the evening was that Steven Strasburg signed a 4 year deal worth $15 million. Great. The whole point to lose these games was so we could get Strasburg. We were the only team that could afford him. The Mets signed there top pick, Steven Matz. Glad Fred Wilpon can still shell out $895,000 to him. You know what the Mets could get for $895,000? A pitcher who is better than Livan Hernandez (they could get someone like that for $400,000).
But, back to the game. Livan was terrible. Absolutely godawful suckyness. 5.1 innings of 6 run baseball. JERRY EXPLAIN TO ME WHY HE IS STILL ON THE TEAM?????????? He has a 5.72 DERA (Baseball Prospectus ERA scaled stat, defence independent, and I'm using it because I get minor league translations). You know who has a lower translated DERA for Buffalo? (And who is younger) Tobi Stoner (5.29), Kyle Snyder (5.29). You know who has that at Binghamton? Ryan Coultas (4.06) and Chris Mason (3.38). Not to mention Nelson Figueroa who is in the bullpen (gave up a run today). At this point Tim Redding could be better. Actually, probably not. Seeing as he gave up 3 runs in an inning. And we scored 1 run. And guess who is pitching tonight: Oliver Perez. When does it end? I mean, come on. I think when Livan pitches and when we have expanded rosters, the AAA AA team should play. Alex Cora went on the DL to have surgery for his ligament. Well, he showed grission by playing for 3 months with that injury.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Cory Sullivan getting thrown out at home in the first. Using Win Expectancy, the break even point is 124%. That means that he has to be safe on those plays 124% of the time for it to be a good decision. Obviously, thats impossible. So using Run Expectancy we see that the break even point is 77%. So Sullivan has to take the extra base successfully 77% of the time. And Francoeur was on deck. Francoeur probably would not have hit into a double play, as he's only hit into 1 as a Met. So Razor Shines, shame on you.
Random Thought of the Day: You know its a sad state of affairs when the lead story on Mets.com is about David Wright's leadership. When he is on the DL (he's the leader of the people on the DL, there's almost enough for a whole team!)
Clutch Play of the Game: Sheffield RBI single in the third. +.112 WPA(*100 to get%)
The Next Torture Session for Fans: Braves at Mets 7:10 PM ET
Oliver Perez (2-3 5.97 ERA, 5.83 FIP, 6.48 tRA) looks to make this torture quick.
Derek Lowe (12-7, 4.08 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 4.32 tRA) will throw a no hitter.