2010 Mets Projections, Right Field

Sorry I haven't been writing recently, some stuff came up. This is a new series, where I will give some projections on the Mets for 2010, based on the CHONE projections. Today I am dealing with Jeff Francoeur.
Francoeur is projected to bat .270/.311/.421, in 596 AB's with 17 HR's and 84 RBI's . Because a lot all of his skill comes from his contact ability, BABIP is very important for him. So I looked at THT's xBABIP calculator, and based over his career, Francoeur should have a .310 BABIP. This is pretty close to his career of .307, and close to his projected chone BABIP of .300 (unfortunately, CHONE doesn't project Sac flies)
Seeing as his xBABIP is .310, that can change his slash stats, as he would now have about 166 hits instead of 161. An extra 5 hits would translate to (based on career norms) 4 singles and 1 double. That would change his slash stats to .297/.319/.431. His numbers lead to a .318 wOBA, which based on a .330 league average wOBA is -6.7 wRAA (to know what these mean, go here.) Then added to Beyond the Boxscore's projected UZR (fielding metric) of 2 runs, positional adjustement of -7.04 runs and his replacment level of 21.13 runs, we get a total of 9.39 Runs, which on the Runs to wins scale (10 Runs per win) leads to a .9 WAR. For more information on how this was computed, go to fangraphs.com, click on glossary and scroll down to wins above replacement.
.9 WAR, which on a $4.5 Million dollar per win scale means Francoeur is worth $4 million, which is about how much he's getting paid.
I'm all for giving Frenchy a chance, but if his BABIP is under .300, he's gonna suck majorly. I just hope Omar doesn't give him 3/36, like he did to Oliver Perez.
Next Up: Carlos Beltran.

Why Jeff Francoeur for 3 years is a bad idea

According to mets.com (Marty Noble) the Mets want to sign Francoeur for 3 years.
Here's the quote:
"The Mets believe Francoeur will look sharp in their 2010 uni, so much so that they are inclined to approach him about signing him to a three-year contract that would allow him to become a big league Beau Brummel, if he so chose. They like what they have seen of him in and out of uniform -- from his spirited demeanor to his nuclear arm to the two doubles he produced Saturday afternoon in their victory against the Nationals."
I won't even go over the "Beau Brummel" part (should Frenchy's cleats be coated with the champagne from 2007 that Willie Randolph never got to use?). How about the fact, that even if Francoeur look's good he still sucks. Sure, he's hitting .280. You know what his OBP is? .309. Cannon arm? Yeah, he has a good arm. He sucks at the rest of defence though, according to UZR. If he has such a great arm, make him a pitcher. Then he has value as a hitter.
You want a 3 year contract, Noble? For a guy who has been worth -9.1 runs? He has been worse offensively than an average hitter. The track record is against him. He has the worst plate discipline on the team, swinging at 35% of pitches outside the strikezone. He is not good at baseball. You know who's better, and cheaper? Bobby Abreu. So, for once, Omar/Wilpons/who ever is the GM, make the right effing decision. Because if we sign Francoeur for 3 years, I'm done.

Big Game Redding; METS WINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

Yep, Big Game Redding. Why not? I mean, if Scott Boras can pull it off with a 4.68 FIP pitcher, why can't Redding's agent? In 213 innings against National League East opponents, Redding has a 4.35 ERA. Against the Phillies he has a 3.01 ERA. Against the National League East, Redding has about a 4.77 FIP. Sign him up. 3 yrs/$36 Million. He only pitches against the NL East.
And he had a good start yesterday against a team that is 9th in runs (we're 11th), second in OBP, 6th in OPS, and 6th in wOBA. Redding went 7 innings, allowing 2 runs (1 of them earned), striking out 4, walking 2. He had an 8.2 swinging strike%. mets.com called it a "gritty start". I'm not sure what was gritty about it (his beard?), but it was a good start, and he's been our second best pitcher since Johan went down. Yes, that's sad. The best: Nelson Figueroa.
Offensively, it was Jeff Francoeur's day; The gritty right fielder went 2/4 with 2 runs and an rbi. He doubled in the second, and scored on Murphy's single; he doubled in Wright in the 8th; and he scored later that inning on an error by Nats first baseman (who is also an awesome hitter who the Met should've signed, he'd have 40 homers even in this place) Adam Dunn. Francisco Rodriguez decided to become a good pitcher again, and got his 32nd "save" and struck out 2. According to Marty Noble, the Mets are going to sign Francoeur to a 3 year contract extension. You know where I'm going with this? Marty Noble lobby for Francoeur contract extension.
Clutch Play of the Game: Francoeur RBI double in 8th. +.145 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets: Mets vs Nats, 1:10 PM
John Maine (5-5 4.45 ERA 4.84 FIP 5.74 tRA) takes on
Garret Mock (3-8 5.89 ERA 4.29 FIP 4.53 tRA)

Failcoeur: Lose 4-2

This is what was said when the Mets got Jeff Francoeur: "Francoeur, 25, is known across the league for his defense in right field. He won a Gold Glove Award in 2007 and has more assists than any other big league outfielder since he made his Major League debut in July 2005."
Example One: Great Throw.
Example Two: Great Tracking.
Defense, huh? And there are other examples. Like when he drops the ball in Washington. And ran away from the ball in Washington. Not that it would've mattered anyway. But, Francoeur was also got for his offense! Okay, he went 3/4 yesterday. That's great. He also saw 11 pitches in 4 at bats. Excellent.
Nelson Figueroa struggled through 5.1 innings, walking 5, striking out 3, and giving up 9 hits, but only letting 2 score. Brian Stokes and Elmer Dessens also gave up runs (though the run Stokes gave up is thanks to the second Francoeur play). I have a feeling that the wet conditions led to the control problems. Only 6% of his pitches were swinging strikes.
The Mets got 9 hits and a walk off of Cole Hamels, but only got 1 run. They had a chance in the 9th, but Jerry's favorite Cory Sullivan hit into a double play (it did plate the run) that basically killed the rally. More than a rally killing home run.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Pagan bunting in the 7th. Pagan is the second or third best hitter in the lineup. You don't want him bunting. You want Jeremy Reed, Nick Evans, Francoeur or Santos bunting, if you have to bunt. It acutally decreases our run scoring, Jerry from 1.49 innings to 1.41. And guess what, we scored one run in the inning. FAIL.
Random Thought of the Day: I'm gonna go out there and say Jerry has a bunting fetish.
Clutch Play of the Game: Sullivan single in 7th. +.094 WPA
Up Next for the Mets:
Mets at Phillies, 4:10 PM
Mike Pelfrey (10-10 4.83 ERA 4.18 FIP 4.82 tRA) takes on 78 year old
Jamie Moyer (12-9 4.98 ERA 5.10 FIP 5.70 tRA)

JEFF FRANCOEUR NEEDS YOUR HELP HOJO!!

His first inning at bat. He took 2 strikes, and a ball, and then swung at a pitch (4) at his eyes. HoJo, please stop this madness!!! HELP HIM NOW!!!

A Word about Jeff Francoeur, and his lack of walks

Recently there have been some posts in the Mets blogosphere about how great Jeff Francoeur has been. One of the arguments is that he has 14 RBI's from 12 games, that makes him really good. Joe Morgan would agree to that. Because Morgan would agree with that, its not good. Read FireJoeMorgan. Please. Now, I'm as happy as the next Met fan about how well Francoeur has played. But the lack of walks is worrying. It has been proven that OBP has a higher correlation with scoring runs. RBI's is a teammate dependent stat, that really doesn't measure the contribution of a batter. (RBI/RBI opportunities would be better, but I'm getting ahead of myself) OBP is one of the best (along with OPS, etc) because getting on base is the most important thing you can do. By getting on base means you avoid an out. There are only 27 outs, thats why bunting is usually a bad play. But first a comparison

Batter A

36 PA 32 AB 10 H 1 2b 0 3b 1 HR 2 BB 7 K .313/.338/.438/.780

Batter B

52 PA 49 AB 16 H 2 2b 0 3b 2 HR 0 BB 5 k .327/.327/.490/.817

There is not much difference between these 2. Batter B has more hits, homers, doubles, and a higher slugging and average. Batter A should make up the differences in homers and doubles and hits if he got more playing time. He also has a higher OBP, but lower slugging and OPS. He could make that up though if he got more playing time. Who would you rather have? The guy who is league average in OBP and slugging, and above average in OPS, or the guy who is below average in OBP, above average in slugging, and OPS?

Decide yes? Well, I'd go for Player A.

Player A is Mike Hampton's hitting side.

Player B, as I'm sure you guessed is Jeff Francoeur.

So, really, since joining the Mets, Jeff Francoeur has been no better than Mike Hampton. So why all the hype?