Monday, July 27, 2009

A Word about Jeff Francoeur, and his lack of walks

Recently there have been some posts in the Mets blogosphere about how great Jeff Francoeur has been. One of the arguments is that he has 14 RBI's from 12 games, that makes him really good. Joe Morgan would agree to that. Because Morgan would agree with that, its not good. Read FireJoeMorgan. Please. Now, I'm as happy as the next Met fan about how well Francoeur has played. But the lack of walks is worrying. It has been proven that OBP has a higher correlation with scoring runs. RBI's is a teammate dependent stat, that really doesn't measure the contribution of a batter. (RBI/RBI opportunities would be better, but I'm getting ahead of myself) OBP is one of the best (along with OPS, etc) because getting on base is the most important thing you can do. By getting on base means you avoid an out. There are only 27 outs, thats why bunting is usually a bad play. But first a comparison
Batter A
36 PA 32 AB 10 H 1 2b 0 3b 1 HR 2 BB 7 K .313/.338/.438/.780
Batter B
52 PA 49 AB 16 H 2 2b 0 3b 2 HR 0 BB 5 k .327/.327/.490/.817

There is not much difference between these 2. Batter B has more hits, homers, doubles, and a higher slugging and average. Batter A should make up the differences in homers and doubles and hits if he got more playing time. He also has a higher OBP, but lower slugging and OPS. He could make that up though if he got more playing time. Who would you rather have? The guy who is league average in OBP and slugging, and above average in OPS, or the guy who is below average in OBP, above average in slugging, and OPS?
Decide yes? Well, I'd go for Player A.
Player A is Mike Hampton's hitting side.
Player B, as I'm sure you guessed is Jeff Francoeur.
So, really, since joining the Mets, Jeff Francoeur has been no better than Mike Hampton. So why all the hype?

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