tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19067691941988736022024-03-08T04:50:56.986-05:00Mets MDAnother Mets blog, created by another fan who is fed up with the Mets, and wishes he knew how to fix themUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger164125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-16143293777504177172012-06-02T08:47:00.005-04:002012-06-02T08:47:54.785-04:00The 2012 Mets: So Likable, They're Erasing Bad MemoriesIt's fair to say that being a Mets fan isn't the easiest thing in the world, especially as a 12-14 year old between 2006 and 2008. Two collapses, a lost series to the far inferior Cardinals, lots and lots of tears; these are memories that I've tried to repress over the years. This 2012 Mets team, though, a group of very likable players, have gone some way to erasing those memories. They won't be totally erased until a World Series is won (who says that can't be this year), but it also has to do with the psyche one goes into Mets games with. Now, I'm excited for Mets baseball again; if they lose, well, there's another game tomorrow. If they win? Awesome.<br />
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Bit by bit, these Mets are replacing old memories with new ones. Miss Jose Reyes? No matter. Jordanny Valdespin, who could, one day, be as good as Jose Reyes, takes Jonathon Papelbon deep in Philadelphia for his first major league hit, and smiles the whole way around the bases, undoubtedly pissing off Shane Victorino. And then there's tonight; Johan Santana can't throw above 90 anymore. He's been out for a year and a little more with this shoulder surgery; yet, he comes back and pitches pretty damn well. And yesterday night, he threw the first Met no hitter in 8,020 games. It's no World Series, but it's the best night of my Met-supporting life. And it's pushed memories of 2007 just a little further away.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-24842302623068144532010-06-24T07:31:00.002-04:002010-06-24T07:53:41.489-04:00Mets 5 Tigers 0: Dickey in ControlR.A. Dickey improved to 6-0 yesterday with a masterful 8 inning shutout performance of the Tigers. Dickey retired 15 of the last 16, striking out 4 and walking 2. Though he threw just 6 swinging strikes, he got 12 groundouts. His FIP, xFIP and tRA, while all being higher than his ERA, meaning regression is likely to occur, they are all in the 3s, meaning that Dickey will porbably continue this level of performance.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/movement.php-pitchSel=285079&game=gid_2010_06_23_detmlb_nynmlb_1&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=2.gif"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 600px; height: 400px;" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/movement.php-pitchSel=285079&game=gid_2010_06_23_detmlb_nynmlb_1&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=2.gif" alt="" border="0" /></a><br />One reason why Dickey has been so effective is that as a knuckleballer, the pitch doesn't really move in the same way every time. The above graph shows just how much his knuckler was moving yesterday. Sometimes the pitch won't move, and on that occasion Dickey will be in trouble, but, as we've seen with Tim Wakefield, he can be a league average or better pitcher for the minimum salary.<br /><br />Player of The Game: R.A. Dickey and Jose Reyes share the honors today. Reyes was a double away from the cycle and had .212 WPA, while Dickey increased the Mets chances of winning by 42.4%.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-35665155978272085882010-05-22T06:38:00.002-04:002010-05-22T07:19:55.323-04:00Yankees 2-1 Mets: Gah!My first recap of 2010, and hopefully the first of many, if I have time to do it.<br />I'll be doing a new format of recap:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Questionable move</span><br />A detailed look into any <s>jaw dropping idiocities</s> questionable moves made by the Mets in the game.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pitch F/x graph of the day<br /></span>Usually looking at the strikezone plot or spin times speed of the Mets pitcher in the game. <span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Idea of the game<br /></span></span></span></span>Personnel, game strategy; just my 2 cents on what could've been done differently. It can be tied back into Questionable move of the day. <span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span><span>So, to the recap:</span></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><br />Questionable move: </span></span></span><span><span><span>Jerry Manuel has awful bullpen management skills. He's used Fernando Nieve in 25 games, and is projected to use him in 94. Nieve now no longer has the shiny ERA, and he has terrible peripherals, including a 15/15 K/BB ratio, and he has a high 5 FIP, xFIP and tRA. He should not be the set up man at all. Of course, in the Top of the 7th, Jerry goes to Elmer Dessens, who was just called up. While Dessens was unlucky to give up 2 runs (great defense, Alex Cora), but at what stage should he have been taken out? With runners at second and third, and none out, the Leverage Index was 2.44, which is highly above average. Jerry should've gone to his best available reliever, which was Francisco Rodriguez. Never mind him being the closer, he's the best reliever, and he should be coming in at high leverage situations, no matter the inning.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pitch F/x graph<br /><br /></span></span></span></span><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=538227&game=gid_2010_05_21_nyamlb_nynmlb_1&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=2.gif"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 600px; height: 400px;" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=538227&game=gid_2010_05_21_nyamlb_nynmlb_1&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=2.gif" alt="" border="0" /></a>Takahashi's fastball was pretty effective, coupled with a slider down and away against lefties and a sinker down and away against righties. Despite not being a hard thrower, he still got 12.9% swinging strikes, which is above average. Swinging strikes is important because it can indicate how many strikeouts a pitcher will get; yesterday Takahashi struck out 5.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Idea of the game<br /></span>Jeff Francoeur had a pretty awful game yesterday, like most of the Mets offense. However, he only saw 9 pitches in his 3 at bats as he went 0/3, dropping down to .221/.280/.379. Over his career, Francoeur hits lefties better than righties, having a .771 OPS against lefites, and a .725 OPS against righties. Over his minor league career, Chris Carter has a .896 OPS against righties, 100 points over his OPS against lefties. My idea is that Jerry Manuel platoon Francoeur and Carter, with Carter starting against righties, and Francoeur starting against lefties. It might be one way to get Francoeur to hit better, and to get more the Mets offense hitting better. <span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-34180462280987242102010-05-20T21:07:00.003-04:002010-05-25T21:47:33.649-04:00Raul Valdes for the rotation?When Oliver Perez was removed from the rotation, Raul Valdes was mentioned as a possible replacement. In the end, the Mets went with R.A. Dickey, but Valdes came in for John Maine when he was removed for precautionary reasons, and pitched extremely well, striking out 6 in 5 innings. Is he a viable option for the rotation?<br /><br />Stats:<br />Valdes, so far, has thrown 20.1 innings, hardly a big sample size. He has struck out 10.2/9 IP, and has a 3.3 K/BB ratio, both excellent figures.<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/charts/velocity-spin.php?4477442010040120100524AAAAA"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 359px; height: 269px;" src="http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/charts/velocity-spin.php?4477442010040120100524AAAAA" alt="" border="0" /></a>As the above graph shows (click to make larger) Valdes gets excellent movement. That is one reason for his success, and his curve ball, with the most movement, is his outpitch, worth 2.8 runs.<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/charts/movement.php?4477442010040120100524AAAAA"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 348px; height: 261px;" src="http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/charts/movement.php?4477442010040120100524AAAAA" alt="" border="0" /></a><br />The above graph again shows his movement, this time from the catchers perspective. The curve is a great pitch against lefties, though against righties, not as much, as it's down and in to them.<br /><br />Conclusion<br />He has a somewhat worrying flyball trend that could regress, and I'd worried about him against righties. If he is going to start, the ideal conditions would be at Citi Field, with the large outfield, and against a lefty dominated lineup.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-28446070911061409862010-04-23T19:58:00.005-04:002010-04-24T07:43:29.816-04:00Johan's changeupJohan Santana struck out 5 yesterday, and his great change up was particularly impressive. I'm going to look at Johan's <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfx/tabdel_expanded.php?pitchSel=276371&game=gid_2010_04_22_chnmlb_nynmlb_1/&s_type=&h_size=700&v_size=500">tabular data</a> for his changeup.<br />Velocity Pfx_x Pfx_z Px Pz Break length<br />80.01 MPH 7.43 6.07 .5 2.2 7.65”<br /><br />What does that all mean? <a href="http://fastballs.wordpress.com/2007/08/02/glossary-of-the-gameday-pitch-fields/">Here</a> is a useful glossary, done by Mike Fast.<br />Velocity is obviously the velocity of the pitch, when released. Pfx_x is the horizontal movement of the pitch, in inches. Pfx_z is the vertical movement, in inches. Px is the location, in feet, horizontally. Right is positive, left is negative, and it's from the middle of the plate. Pz is the location in feet, vertically. Break length is the measurement of the greatest distance in inches from the straight path of a hypothetical pitch thrown from the same place.<br /><br />Here is the location of his changeup<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rUD576ykkuI/S9LYDG1jiTI/AAAAAAAAAEE/HGnFxhOnmjs/s1600/graph%282%29.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 309px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rUD576ykkuI/S9LYDG1jiTI/AAAAAAAAAEE/HGnFxhOnmjs/s400/graph%282%29.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5463666845840279858" border="0" /></a>Point (0,-3) would be a right handed batter's feet, approximately.<br />Here's the average location of his changeup in just the strike zone.<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_rUD576ykkuI/S9LY2Gfpv6I/AAAAAAAAAEM/Nl2rCodsrrk/s1600/graph%283%29.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 309px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_rUD576ykkuI/S9LY2Gfpv6I/AAAAAAAAAEM/Nl2rCodsrrk/s400/graph%283%29.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5463667721921740706" border="0" /></a>As you can see, it's down and away, which is what makes it so devastating to right handed hitters.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-3342862599858347422010-04-23T15:15:00.002-04:002010-04-23T15:26:43.097-04:00I'm BackWell, another season is in full swing, and I will be honest, I was nervous at the beginning. However it seems, like for the time being the Mets will be OK. Ike Davis, (a member of one of my fantasy teams) is proving that he is the future of the team. The team now has a even more solid core to build around. It seems like Frenchy is the outfield stud instead of his canadian counter part Jason Bay. If you look at pitching, only two of the rotation is looking shaky in Perez and Maine. Niese is showing glimpses that he can be a solid third starter, Pelf is looking like the second starter this team needs, and Santana has been great 3 of the 4 times he's gone out. This weekends series with the Braves is a big one, not only because they are a division rival, but because in a division filled with so many young stars, two of the youngest are the Braves Jason Heyward (the greatest hitting prospect in years according to SI) and Ike Davis (the savior). The Mets will try and ride the high they have after winning their first series of the year against the Cubs. They will send out Maine, Niese, and in the Sunday night game, Pelf agaist Tommy Hanson. That game might be the best chance to see a showcase of great all around young players. Both pitchers are 3-0, Frenchy is playing his old team, and the Mets are looking to show they can contend with the top tier of the division.Trevor Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10381885875227616366noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-82343004045161702782010-04-14T21:38:00.002-04:002010-04-14T21:39:56.848-04:00If only<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_rUD576ykkuI/S8ZuS8QbBkI/AAAAAAAAADg/yCosXCmuCyA/s1600/mets+win+ws.png"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 361px; height: 226px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_rUD576ykkuI/S8ZuS8QbBkI/AAAAAAAAADg/yCosXCmuCyA/s200/mets+win+ws.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5460172869925013058" border="0" /></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-36266790322811955202010-04-12T19:53:00.003-04:002010-04-12T20:04:23.818-04:00It's not time to panic, not yetWhen the Mets lost 2 out of 3 to the Nationals, and went to 2-4 for the season, there has been a lot of Fire Jerry proclaiming. I have 2 problems with this. 1) is that if you're going to fire Jerry 6 games into the season, why not do it at the end of last year? 2) we're a great catch away from being 3-3, and we lost a game in extras. While we're struggling to hit, and some of the pitching hasn't been great so far, the Mets are not in terrible shape, just yet. Even if they are, there is hope for next season and 2012. The Mets still have a core of David Wright, Jose Reyes, Jason Bay and Johan Santana. They will be joined in 2011 by Josh Thole and Ike Davis. Ruben Tejada will provide great defence at second base, instead of the black hole that is Luis Castillo. Jeff Francoeur can provide ok offence in right field, and if Plus/Minus is right, above average defence. Carlos Beltran will play out his contract, and will be resigned to a cheaper 2 year deal, and still hit to a tune of a .372 wOBA. And if he doesn't, Fernando Martinez will make his long anticipated debut. Meanwhile, Johan Santana will pitch well, Jon Niese and Mike Pelfrey will provide 4.25 FIPs and Oliver Perez will be serviceable. Jenrry Mejia will be a starter and be awesome.<br />So don't panic yet Mets fans. The future is still bright enough.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-32171288554954612892010-04-07T20:30:00.003-04:002010-04-08T16:38:37.912-04:00MIke Jacobs is a waste of spaceWhen Daniel Murphy went down with his knee injury, Mike Jacobs was assured of a starter's spot, and even batted fourth. But what did Jacobs deserve to get that spot? Chris Carter had a much better spring, and even had the praise of Jerry Manuel, being called "an animal". But Omar Minaya was impressed by Jacobs' past history of hitting homers, if this <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/04/sports/baseball/04longball.html?ref=sports">quote </a>means anything:<br /><blockquote><p><em>"If you see the teams in the World Series, they’ve got power," Mets General Manager Omar Minaya said. "You’ve got to be able to break the game open. It’s not only home runs, it’s slugging. I think the right word is slug. You’ve got to get the extra bases."</em></p><p><em><br /></em></p></blockquote><br />The problem is that Jacobs really doesn't do anything, except hit an occasional homer. Last year he had a .305 wOBA, 25 points below league average, and 45 points below his positional average, and 8 points behind his position replacement level (.313). He had a .282 BABIP, right along his career average, and his xBABIP was .303, so he wasn't extremely unlucky. Instead, he just had a bad season. He then followed that up batting .194 in the Spring. Chris Carter had a far superior spring, and had a .360 wOBA last year, and a .376 wOBA the year before, both in AAA. He can actually play a decent right or left field contrary to popular belief, and despite being pretty bad at first, he's better than Jacobs. In the end, Jacobs shouldn't even be on the team, let alone batting fourth, and if he is on the team, what is he doing batting fourth? Your 3rd best hitter should bat fourth, than third, than fifth. Jacobs should hit 7th or 8th, in front of Cora, but behind Francoeur.<br />In the end this is a subject that I'm nitpicking on, but its just another example of bad mismanagement by Jerry and Omar, and also shows that Omar only has knowledge of players he once had.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-12067992014646863212010-03-06T06:59:00.003-05:002010-03-06T07:12:55.127-05:00Calero, Niese, Figueroa and MejiaThe Mets signed Kiko Calero to a minor league <a href="http://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/9989850069">contract</a>, with $850 K if he makes the team and $650 K for performance bonuses. This is a great move by Omar Minaya and the Mets, and can shore up the back end of the rotation. Calero, 35, had a 2.39 tRA, 2.56 FIP, and a 3.92 xFIP. He also had a 1.95 ERA, which makes it interesting that no one else wanted to sign him.<br /><br />Fernando Nieve pitched yesterday, and went 3 innings against the Cardinals, giving up 1 run while walking 2 and striking out 2. Nelson Figueroa, in the same game went 4 innings, striking out 5 and walking 1, though it was against a more weaker lineup as Pujols and Holliday were taken out.<br />Jon Niese went 2.2 innings, giving up a run, striking out 5, and walking 2, against the Marlins. Jenry Mejia went 2.1 innings, and striking out 4 and walking none. Despite Mejia's impressive beginning, he should stay in the minors this year, to keep his inning number down, and maybe can come up as a reliever later in the year a la Joba Chamberlain.<br /><br />Meanwhile in the race for the number 5 starter, Fernando Nieve is going to make the team, as a long man or starter, because he's out of options. Figueroa should also make the team, as he's a solid pitcher who can start or relieve and had better peripheals last year than Nieve. And Jon Niese, who I would love to be the number 5 starter, will probably be in AAA, though will come up if one of the starters gets injured.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-88297011278673242112010-02-19T17:13:00.003-05:002010-02-19T17:49:54.427-05:00Could Jerry Manuel be making the right move?<blockquote></blockquote>Latest news from Port St Lucie is that Jerry Manuel is considering <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2010/news/story?id=4928325">batting Jose Reyes third</a>.<br />This is while Carlos Beltran would be injured<br /><br /><blockquote><p>Manager Jerry Manuel said Friday that he might move Reyes to the third spot in the order from leadoff while outfielder <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3971">Carlos Beltran</a> is out after knee surgery. Either <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6488">Angel Pagan</a>, Beltran's likely replacement, or second baseman <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3515">Luis Castillo</a> would bat leadoff.</p><p>"I think he's ready for that if it's something we need," Manuel said, according to the Star-Ledger of Newark, N.J. "This could be a part of his evolution as a player."</p><p>"I'm good with it," Reyes said, according to the New York Post. "I just want to be in the lineup."</p><p>Reyes said the order switch isn't a definite yet, however.</p><p>"He's not sure yet. We just talked about it a little bit yesterday," Reyes said, according the New York Daily News. "I said I'm open to anything you want me to do. It's not a problem."</p></blockquote><br />Could Jerry Manuel actually be making a good move in batting Jose Reyes third? In their book, <span style="font-style: italic;">The Book, </span>Tom Tango, Andrew Dolphin and Mitchel Lichtman explored optimum lineup construction. They came up with this<br /><br /><blockquote>Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. Your fourth-and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slows will have more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality.</blockquote>CHONE has Reyes projected as the third best Mets hitter (excluding Beltran). So, in an optimal lineup construction, he should hit fourth. But how would Reyes hitting third look in a Mets lineup? I used <a href="http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py">Lineup Analysis</a> to find out how many runs the Mets would score. The OBP and SLG columns used projections from CHONE<br />The Lineup was Pagan, Castillo, Reyes, Bay, Wright, Murphy, Francoeur, Catchers (.318 OBP, .371 SLG), Pitcher (.176 OBP and .179 SLG)<br />This <a href="http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=Pagan&OBA0=.334&Slug0=.428&Player1=Castillo&OBA1=.367&Slug1=.350&Player2=Reyes&OBA2=.360&Slug2=.458&Player3=Bay&OBA3=.376&Slug3=.514&Player4=Wright&OBA4=.391&Slug4=.502&Player5=Murphy&OBA5=.328&Slug5=.429&Player6=Francoeur&OBA6=.317&Slug6=.435&Player7=Blanco%2FSantos%2FThole&OBA7=.318&Slug7=.371&Player8=Pitcher&OBA8=.179&Slug8=.176&Model=0">Lineup </a>would score 4.66 RPG. The optimum lineup, scoring 4.888 RPG would be Wright, Bay, Catchers, Pagan, Reyes, Francoeur, Murphy, Pitcher, Castillo.<br /><br />If you switch Castillo and Pagan, having Castillo lead off, you score 4.7 RPG; switch Castillo and Pagan, and Bay and Wright, you get 4.8 RPG. Switch Bay and Wright, you get 4.65 RPG.<br /><br />And if Reyes doesn't bat third, and the lineup is Reyes, Castillo, Wright, Bay, Murphy, Pagan, Francoeur, Catchers, Pitchers they'll score 4.66 RPG.<br /><br />So if you're going to bat Reyes third, have Pagan lead off and Wright hit fifth, though it doesn't make that much difference if Wright bats fourth or fifth.<br />In the end, batting Reyes third or first is not going to make a difference to the Mets.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-26111611419952789902010-01-23T06:39:00.003-05:002010-01-23T07:01:36.170-05:00Mets trade Brian Stokes for Gary Matthews JrOmar, just when I thought you lost the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/scott-podsednik-dayton-moore-and-the-contest/">Contest</a>. While Brian Stokes wasn't the best (his 3.97 ERA was really lucky, a 4.63 FIP and a 5.50 tRA) he certainly was better than Gary Matthews Jr. Since signing that 5/$50 million contract, Matthews Junior has been worth -1.1 WAR. Yeah, negative. He can't hit anymore (his wOBA has been .324, .303 and .313 the last 3 years). He'd be a perfectly good fourth outfielder except he can't field anymore (1, -9.3, -14.5 UZR the last 3 years). I know we're paying him $1 million this year and next, but what do we get for that $1 million? Or, more importantly, who could we have signed?<br />But what does <a href="http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100122&content_id=7953786&vkey=news_nym&fext=.jsp&c_id=nym">Omar think of it</a>?<br /><p><span style="font-weight: bold;"> "He's a very versatile player"<br /></span></p><p>Is versatile another way of saying he can suck at left, right and center field?<span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-weight: bold;">"I felt just that with Carlos being out, it's an opportunity to get a guy that's versatile, and a guy that in our ballpark can play all outfield positions. I just feel that versatility is important"</p><p style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">we get it. He's versatile. He will save you .9 runs in right field. That's all we can play. Oops, I forgot, we have Frenchy!<br />And, if you're so commited to versatility, why did you sign Alex Cora, who can only play second?<br /></span></p><p style="font-weight: bold;">"and to be able to get a guy like him on board -- with Carlos or without Carlos -- I think it just makes our team better."</p><br />How the #@^&$@*&(*!&#^%^#&%$@%^&#! does getting someone below replacement level make the Mets better? Explain that to me Omar?<br /><br /><p style="font-weight: bold;"> "There's an opportunity for him to come into New York and hopefully be able to get more playing time, I think the key for him is going to be playing time."</p>The key for him is to get more playing time. So he can suck more? I mean, I'm not Jeff Francoeur's biggest fan, but I'd rather have him playing right field and center field than Gary Matthews Jr.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Matthews wanted to be traded to a team that would allow him to start, and the Mets, at least temporarily, can offer him that assurance</span><br />WHAT THE %*&$&@(^*%$(@*&%((**(&@&^@#^$&^*@$*&@$^&^!&*(!)*($*(&@^!#^<br />WHAT ARE YOU SAYING ANTHONY DiCOMO?<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />"I think it's going to be open competition," Minaya said of the center-field job. "That's the same thing that I told Gary Matthews Jr. when he asked that. Nobody's going to be given a job. Whoever performs is going to be given the opportunity."</span><br />Pheew. You had me worried there Omar. I thought you were actually going to give the center field job to Gary Matthews Jr. Even you aren't that dumb.<br />Oh yeah, I forgot. You traded Brian Bannister, who would be the Mets 2nd best pitcher right now for murderer Amborix Burgos.<br /><br />Omar, the Angels were not on the approved trading list for Omar™. You are only allowed to trade with Dayton Moore, Brian Sabean, Ed Wade and Ned Colletti.<br /> bvbvnnnnnnnnnnnkzsbdlueFIZ uhewfaogiqaaopiu iAHJKLGFHUIGUEWUESA SGA HGABJHVBJAS VAIUYEAIG EWVAVL<br />*Head hits keyboard in frustration*Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-49332160016835607682010-01-16T06:55:00.000-05:002010-01-16T07:01:34.013-05:00Jason Bay xBABIP projectionsContinuing with the series, I used the <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/simple-xbabip-calculator/">xBABIP calculator</a> to normalize the luck for Jason Bay, and to determine what his offensive output will be using this xBABIP and <a href="http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/NYN2010.htm">Chone</a> projections.<br /><br />Jason has a .352 xBABIP over his career, which is 20 points higher than his average BABIP. If we use his .352 xBABIP, Jason will bat .297/.402/.550 (AVG/OBP/SLG) which is a great year. He will hit 34 homers, and have a .410 wOBA. He is projected to have 622 plate appearences. If we use his average BABIP, .332, he'll bat .283/.391/.535, with a .399 wOBA.<br />Using his CHONE projections (.267/.376/.514, .388 wOBA, .307 BABIP) on <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1717&position=OF">Fangraphs</a>, he is prjected for 4 WAR.<br />Using his xBABIP calculations and an average of his defensive projections from CHONE and Jeff Zimmerman's <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/11/14/1157186/2010-uzr-projections">projections</a> at Beyond the Boxscore, Jason has a total of 50.2 RAR, which leads to a 5 WAR. I think that is a little too optimistic, and his projected total from Fangraphs is probably right, 4 WAR.<br />CHONE, xBABIP normalized and BABIP normalized projections <a href="http://docs.google.com/Doc?docid=0AS3uMVs15MODZGRtbTQ5NGNfNTZnc3FyajRkZw&hl=en">here</a>.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-65445977645493826892010-01-15T20:11:00.003-05:002010-01-15T20:19:54.907-05:00Carlos Beltran surgery, Mets FO messes upAs you have probably heard, Carlos Beltran had surgery on his right knee, and should be out for 12 weeks before he can start baseball related activity. That means he is probably back around June 1. But what is more worrying is the complete idiocity shown by the Mets front office, yet again. In a development that rivals the Adam Rubin fiasco in terms of stupidity, the team say they wanted Beltran to have a third opinion to have the surgery. Of course, they determined this while he was having surgery. Beltran originally wanted to have surgery during the season, but the Mets didn't want him to, which can only be described as a blunder. He ended up playing in 19 meaningless games last year, and will know miss 2 months of an actual meaningful season (as it looks right now), when he could've had surgery earlier.<br />Beltran's agent, Scott Boras said that Beltran's personal doctor, Dt Steadman talked with the Mets team doctor, Dr Altcheck, who agreed Beltran should have surgery after pain in his knee was not going away. According to Boras, Dr Steadman was told that Dr Altcheck would tell the Mets.<br />The major blunder by the Mets was to make this feud public. It shows the Mets to be incompetent, again, and also insensitive. It also shows that the medical staff issues of last year have not gone away. Interestingly enough, it was John Ricco, the assistant GM who handled the Press conference. This can be read as the Mets hoping that the bad PR situation did not get any worse with Omar Minaya handling the press conference; they can remember the Adam Rubin fiasco as well.<br />Hopefully, Beltran gets well soon. It now looks like Angel Pagan will be the center fielder for 2 months. But while Beltran's loss is huge, it will be overshadowed by the Mets PR blunder. Seriously, what is Jay Horowitz up to?Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-51082710504189908532010-01-05T06:48:00.004-05:002010-01-05T16:14:30.781-05:00Jason Bay signs for the Mets; will it be worth it in 5 years?So Jason Bay has finally ended the will he won't he by signing a 4 year $66 million dollar contract, with a $17 million dollar vesting option. Bay is a good offensive player, but is pretty awful at defense, though his numbers may be exaggerated a bit by Fenway. However, for him to worth, effectively the $83 million dollar contract, he'd have to worth about 2.5 WAR at least, going forward. And the problem with this is that Bay is not getting any younger; 31 this year, he'll be 36 at the end of the contract in 2014. And while I'm happy that the Mets got Bay, instead of going for the cheaper, worse option, I still think Omar somewhat overpaid him. Bay was not really wanted by any other teams, as the teams that were apparently interested in him, the Mariners and the Red Sox had both just made acquisitions (Bradley for the M's, Cameron for the Sox) that meant that they weren't interested in him anymore. Taking a 5-4-3-2-1 weighted average of his WAR since 2005, Bay averages 3.1. He was 3.5 WAR last year, and using CHONE offensive predictions and Beyond the Boxscore's defensive predictions, he is worth 3.4 WAR, with a .385 wOBA. He'll be paid $15 million in 2010, and a 3.4 WAR would be worth $15.3 million. Hopefully, he can keep this level of production up, but if he declines this deal can be very very nasty for the Mets, especially as Bay is owed $16 million up to his final year. However, if he continues to average 3.1 WAR 2011+, that would add up to a 15.8 WAR, which would be worth $71.8 Million dollars total, at $4.5 million a win. I'm fine with that, and if thats the case, it could be a good signing by Omar.<br />Now, go out and sign Matt Holliday to play right. That would be awesome.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-13345539032020233702009-12-20T07:07:00.001-05:002009-12-21T11:50:58.277-05:00Chat about John Lackey and Jason BayI spoke with Spencer (of this blog) about the Red Sox signing John Lackey (who wasn't interested in the Mets) and I added the obligatory Jason Bay question<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Aidan:</span><br />John Lackey is described by the Mainstream Media to be a "Bulldog"<br />However, he has started 24 and 27 games the last 2 years and has suffered elbow and shoulder injuries. His deal was delayed because of a pre existing shoulder injury. How confident are you that the 5/$82.5 Million deal will turn out to be a good one?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Spencer: </span><br /><div class="GBThreadMessageRow_Body_Content"> The past couple years he has been less than healthy, and thats a risk we're taking. but he pitched at least 200 innings from 2003-2007 and has post-season experience (a 3.12 ERA). He looked fine at the end of last year and, along with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, he can make up the best 1-2-3 punch in baseball.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Aidan:<br /></span><div class="GBThreadMessageRow_Body_Content"> Josh Beckett is a free agent at the end of the season. Will the Red Sox be able to resign him to a deal, where he could arguably get the same type of money as Lackey or even more? And if not, is that why they brought in John Lackey?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Spencer:</span><br /><div class="GBThreadMessageRow_Body_Content"> We brought in Lackey to supplement our staff now, and obviously we are going to try to negotiate with Beckett during this year. He has been our rock since 2007 and we're definitely going to want him for longer. BUT if his price is absurdly high, we would just let the Yankees get him. And we would still have Lester, Lackey, and Buccholz (not to mention dice-k)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Aidan:<br /></span><div class="GBThreadMessageRow_Body_Content"> Now, I have to ask the obvious Jason Bay question. Mike Cameron signed with the Red Sox on Wednesday, so it looks like Bay's time with the Sox is over. If he signs with the Mets (and we're front runners) do you think he will fit in, and is he better than Holliday?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Spencer:<br /></span><div class="GBThreadMessageRow_Body_Content"> Bay is a slightly better defender (.988 vs .980, 15 Assists vs 7 last year (Aidan: UZR liked Holliday a lot more than Bay)), but Holliday is a slightly better hitter, if not slugger (.318 career BA vs .280). Bay can hit for more power and he walks more as well. i think the Mets have decent speed with Reyes, Wright, and Beltran (Holliday runs more than Bay) so I think that Bay would fit in more. but really, don't you think you guys have enough stars to underachieve already?(<span style="font-weight: bold;">Aidan: </span>The idiots in the FO and management are the reasons we underachieve)<br /></div><br /></div><br /></div></div><br /></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-12680551013966292532009-12-15T16:10:00.002-05:002009-12-15T16:34:31.502-05:00Molina tells the Mets 3 years, I hope Omar doesn't do itAccording to Ken Davidoff, Bengie Molina <a href="http://twitter.com/KenDavidoff/status/6682069683">wants</a> 3 years, citing deals given to Jason Kendall and Pudge Rodriguez. I for one, hope that Omar does not meet his demands, and instead, signs either A, no one, or B, sign Rod Barajas.<br />Barajas had a 7.6 RAR (runs above replacement, used for WAR) and then add in his 4.2 Runs for defense (from <a href="http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/10/13/1082419/2009-catcher-defense-filling-in%29">Driveline Mechanics</a>), which would make for 11.2 RAR, and then added to baserunning, which is -1.6, which is 9.6, which divided by 10 (10 runs per win) leads to a 1 WAR.<br />Molina was 18 RAR, but added to defense (-3.4) and terrible baserunning (-4.5!!!, one of the worst in the league) makes him at only 10.1 RAR, which is only 1 WAR, just like Barajas. If Barajas can be had for one year, $4 million, do it. Forget Molina.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-8340659964530699462009-12-12T15:59:00.004-05:002009-12-15T16:08:11.841-05:00The Mets think Jason Bay is better defensively than Matt Holliday. It's not a jokeYep, in another coup in the Mets FO, they believe that Jason Bay is better defensively than Matt Holliday.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">"- Despite the numbers, they like him defensively over Holliday."<br /></span><a href="http://www.blogger.com/-%20Despite%20the%20numbers,%20they%20like%20him%20defensively%20over%20Holliday.">Source</a><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span><span><span>How much do you want to bet that is because of this play:</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://siliconangle.net/ver2/travisrodgersnow/files/2009/10/500x_holliday21.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 220px; height: 155px;" src="http://siliconangle.net/ver2/travisrodgersnow/files/2009/10/500x_holliday21.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>Speaking of the numbers, Holliday is better than Bay in all the meanigful defensive stats (sorry, fielding percentage, and errors).<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Holliday UZR vs Bay UZR, 2009</span><br />Holliday:5.7 (not to mention excellent 9.1 and 14.2 UZR's in 2007 and 08 in Coors Field)<br />Bay:-13<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Holliday ZR vs Bay ZR, 2009<br /></span>Holliday:17.148 ZR with STL, 11.658 with OAK, total of 13.341<br />Bay:11.255 ZR<span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span>ZR is zone rating: The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive zone, the zone being measured by STATS, Inc.<br /><br />Seriously. Holliday>Bay. And now that Holliday has been offered 8/$128m, I would forget Bay's contract, which is the same basically, and offer 6/$110 to Holliday. Maybe'll accept. But I'd rather have Holliday than Bay.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span><br /></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-6037572096715930542009-12-11T06:57:00.003-05:002009-12-11T16:31:17.352-05:00GlossaryHere is a glossary of terms I will use. Click on the links. They help.<br />Offense<br />wOBA: Weighted On Base Average. It is a <a href="http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Linear_Weights">linear weights</a> stat, on an On Base Percentage scale.<br />The formula:<br /><p><code> (0.72xNIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B + 1.95xHR) / PA </code></p><p>For more info, go <a href="http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml">here</a>. </p><p>OBP: On base percentage. It is the percent of the time a player gets on base. Formula: H+BB+HBP/PA</p><p>SLG: Slugging percentage. Measures the player's power. Unlike the other stats, the highest slugging possible is 4.000. SLG=TB/AB</p><p>OPS: On Base Plus Slugging. OPS=OBP+SLG. It's simple.</p><p>OPS +: Adjusted OPS, it is park and league adjusted. 100 is average, below is below average, above is above average. OPS+=100*(OBP/lgOBP + SLG/lgSLG -1)</p><p>wRAA: weighted runs above average. Measure of batting runs above average, with 0 being league average. wRAA= (wOBA-lgwOBA)/1.15*PA</p><p>BABIP: Batting average on Balls in Play. The name is self explanatory... This is not a skill stat however, it is a luck stat. League average is usually about .300, but if a player is above his usual average BABIP (David Wright, mid 2009) he's in for a bit of a decline as it stabilizes. BABIP=(H-HR)/(AB-HR-K+SF). This is also applicable to pitchers.<br /></p><p>WAR: Wins Above Replacement level. It takes offensive, defensive, replacement and positional level stats. Replacement level is a AAA lifer or a guy you can pick up for league minimum. A team full of replacement level players would have 48.6 Wins out of 162 games. I really suggest that you go <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/#winvalues">here </a>to learn more to understand WAR.</p><p>Pitching</p><p>FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. This is a stat that measures pitchers on an ERA scale, without defensive interference. It's independent of defense. FIP=(13*HR+3*(BB+HBP-IBB)-2*K)/IP+ a league constant usually 3.2, to get FIP onto an ERA scale.<br /></p><p><a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/#xfip">xFIP</a>: Expected FIP. Replaces HR with flyballs to make it more independent of luck. ONe of the best future performance stats. xFIP = ((FB*.11)*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP+league constant. Note: .11 is the league average HR/FB which is lgHR/lgFB</p><p>ERA: ER*9/IP. Next.</p><p>tRA: tRA, and tRA* are maybe the best pitching stats out there. On a run average scale, times by .92 to get to ERA. While I understand the numbers and how its calculated, I don't think I can understand it, so go <a href="http://www.statcorner.com/tRAabout.html">here</a>. </p><p>ERA+: Adjusted ERA. Park and league adjusted. ERA+= (lgERA/ ERA)*100. Below 100 is below average, 100 average, above 100 is average</p><p>tRA+: Adjusted tRA. Below 100 is below average, 100 average, above 100 is average. [((<a onclick="highlight('lgtra')" href="http://www.statcorner.com/glossary.html#lgtra">lgTRA</a> - <a onclick="highlight('tra')" href="http://www.statcorner.com/glossary.html#tRA">tRA</a>) / lgTRA) + 1] * 100</p><p>WAR: There is WAR for pitchers. Go to fangraphs glossary to learn about it.<br /></p><p>Defense</p><p>UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating. Runs saved above average, comapred to position, 0 average, 10 would be 10 runs above average. The primer is <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/#fielding">here</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/lichtman_2003-03-14_0/">here </a>and <a href="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/lichtman_2003-03-21_0/">here</a>. Click for a much better understanding.</p><p>If I start using a new stat, I'll add it here. This will be available as a link on the side of the blog.</p><p><code><br /></code> </p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-34076611536987509982009-12-05T06:59:00.004-05:002009-12-06T18:12:11.179-05:00Carlos Beltran season projectionAgain, using the xBABIP calculator, Carlos' xBABIP is an astounding .428, which is way above his career norm of .307, and above his Chone projected .295 BABIP. I am using Chone projections, by the way, because it has been proven that Chone projects better than any other projection.<br />Back to Beltran: I'm going to calculate 2 adjusted season lines for Beltran: One with his .428 xBABIP, and one with his .307 BABIP.<br />Beltran is predicted to have 118 Games, 454 AB's, 126 hits, 27 doubles, 2 triples, 21 HR's, 79 RBI's, and have a line of .278/.362/.485. The totals are low because it's based on previous years to find an average, and last year Beltran missed a lot of games. Adjusted to a .428 BABIP, his line becomes .335/.412/.559. His wOBA is .419, which leads to 40 wRAA. He has a projected 1 UZR, gets a 1.8 positional adjustment and gets 17 Replacement runs. This adds up to 59.8 Runs, which divided by 10 gives Carlos a 6 WAR season, which is amazing.<br />However if his BABIP is .307, he bats .286/.370/.496 with a .378 wOBA. This leads to a 21.5 wRAA, which changes his WAR to 4 WAR, which is good, but not 6 WAR great.<br />However, it is still extremely productive, and I think his line will be something like .300/.390/.520. Remember, 2011 is the end of his contract, and personally, if Beltran is healthy he should be resigned.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-58524370675587270132009-12-04T06:57:00.004-05:002009-12-06T18:00:02.104-05:002010 Mets Projections, Right FieldSorry I haven't been writing recently, some stuff came up. This is a new series, where I will give some projections on the Mets for 2010, based on the <a href="http://www.baseballprojection.com/">CHONE</a> projections. Today I am dealing with Jeff Francoeur.<br />Francoeur is projected to bat .270/.311/.421, in 596 AB's with 17 HR's and 84 RBI's . Because <s>a lot</s> all of his skill comes from his contact ability, BABIP is very important for him. So I looked at THT's xBABIP <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/simple-xbabip-calculator/">calculator</a>, and based over his career, Francoeur should have a .310 BABIP. This is pretty close to his career of .307, and close to his projected chone BABIP of .300 (unfortunately, CHONE doesn't project Sac flies)<br />Seeing as his xBABIP is .310, that can change his slash stats, as he would now have about 166 hits instead of 161. An extra 5 hits would translate to (based on career norms) 4 singles and 1 double. That would change his slash stats to .297/.319/.431. His numbers lead to a .318 wOBA, which based on a .330 league average wOBA is -6.7 wRAA (to know what these mean, go <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-one">here</a>.) Then added to Beyond the Boxscore's <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/11/14/1157186/2010-uzr-projections">projected UZR</a> (fielding metric) of 2 runs, positional adjustement of -7.04 runs and his replacment level of 21.13 runs, we get a total of 9.39 Runs, which on the Runs to wins scale (10 Runs per win) leads to a .9 WAR. For more information on how this was computed, go to fangraphs.com, click on glossary and scroll down to wins above replacement.<br />.9 WAR, which on a $4.5 Million dollar per win scale means Francoeur is worth $4 million, which is about how much he's getting paid.<br />I'm all for giving Frenchy a chance, but if his BABIP is under .300, he's gonna suck majorly. I just hope Omar doesn't give him 3/36, like he did to Oliver Perez.<br />Next Up: Carlos Beltran.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-8187029440750078892009-11-26T14:23:00.002-05:002009-12-04T16:12:05.001-05:00ThankfulWe as sports fans have much to be thankful for. Aidan, Spencer and I have much to be thankful for as friends. As a die hard sports fan, I have seen moments that can bring people to tears. We are thankful for underdogs. What would the world be like if there wasn't a goliath to lose to david. If anyone wants to see this in action look up highlights for Michigan versus Appalachian St. in 2007. The Mountaineers became the first D-1 AA team to beat a D-1 A team in the top 5. To listen to the announcers from the Appalachian St. radio network scream as the Mountaineers blocked Michigan's field goal as time expired and see the players carry their coach off the field is one sight that everyone should see. We are thankful for those players who have the ability to do things we can't believe possible. Lebron, Kobe, Albert Pujols, Peyton Manning, Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin,Trevor Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10381885875227616366noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-46942901757477609682009-11-16T16:51:00.001-05:002009-11-16T17:28:39.470-05:00trRA for hittersEver since Voros McCracken's ground breaking work on DIPS, and luck, there has been debate on how much control pitchers and hitters have on luck. BABIP measures whether a player has been lucky or unlucky, and there are many defense independent stats. One of the better ones is tRA or true Run Average. As this <a href="http://www.statcorner.com/tRAabout.html">article</a> shows, it is based on batted ball data. This same idea can be applied to hitters, and there can even be a regression value. The formula for this stat would be like wOBA; number of batted balls*batted ball run value and add this to each hitter and then divide by plate appearences. Walks and strikeouts can also be added. Using the run values given in the article about tRA, I applied this to David Wright and the Majors. For David Wright it comes out to .126; some work might be required on this statistical measure, but personally I think it is a good way to evaluate hitters, and rewards them for what they hit, rather than the outcome.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-16528243303888791912009-11-15T10:48:00.002-05:002009-11-15T10:53:22.112-05:00Correlation, Part 6For a recap on Correlation and the rest of the series, go <a href="http://metsmd.blogspot.com/search/label/correlation">here</a>.<br />Part 6 focuses on the correlation of wOBA to Runs. wOBA is weighted On Base Average, and is a linear weights stat on an On Base Percentage scale. Here is the <a href="http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml">formula</a>, and some info.<br />The Correlation between Runs and wOBA was .93, so it has strong correlation. The R² is .87. This is by far the strongest correlation I've had in this study, and it is stronger than average, OBP and slugging, but strangely, not OPS.<br />The Graph: (Click to enlargen)<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_rUD576ykkuI/SwAj1Zae8yI/AAAAAAAAABM/SesSTck9K8k/s1600-h/graphwOBA.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 200px; height: 150px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_rUD576ykkuI/SwAj1Zae8yI/AAAAAAAAABM/SesSTck9K8k/s200/graphwOBA.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5404358953106600738" border="0" /></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1906769194198873602.post-50755824077103601612009-11-15T10:14:00.004-05:002009-11-15T10:18:29.037-05:00My Plan for 2010On Amazin Avenue there is a contest for off season plan. I posted a plan, and I'm going to repost it here. The budget has to be about $150 million dollars, and trades and signings have to be realistic.<br />The <a href="http://www.amazinavenue.com/2009/11/11/1125758/aaop-firejerrynows-plan">Plan</a>: (Courtesy of amazinavenue.com)<br /><p><b>Outfield</b></p> <p><span class="sbn-auto-link">Matt Holliday</span> for 5 years/$100 million, $20 Million a year. This is probably the easiest move to make, as we know the <span class="sbn-auto-link">Mets</span> need power, and Holliday is the best player available. Also, what's nice is that Holliday's salary is only $8 million more than what came off the books when Delgado declared free agency. For the rest of the outfield, <span class="sbn-auto-link">Angel Pagan</span> gets re upped for about $650,000. <span class="sbn-auto-link">Jeff Francoeur</span> will get resigned for $4 million for 2010, and will face arbitration in 2011. The Mets will also sign <span class="sbn-auto-link">Endy Chavez</span> for $1 million (he's $1 million due to the injury).</p> <p><b>Catcher</b></p> <p>Trade Ruben Tejada and <span class="sbn-auto-link">Eddie Kunz</span> for <span class="sbn-auto-link">Chris Snyder</span>. Snyder makes $4.75 Million in 2010 and $5.75 million in 2011. and <span class="sbn-auto-link">Omir Santos</span> is the backup, for $500,000. Santos is actually a pretty good defender, according to Driveline Mechanics, worth 2.4 runs, with Snyder being worth -3. Josh Thole goes in AAA, but comes up in 2010.</p> <p><b>First Base and Second Base<br /></b></p> <p>The Mets make this 3 way trade that's being reported, with Castillo going to Chicago, Bradley going to Toronto and <span class="sbn-auto-link">Lyle Overbay</span> going to the Mets. He will make $7 Million in 2010, and is a free agent in 2011. <span class="sbn-auto-link">Nick Evans</span> will be the backup first baseman, with <span class="sbn-auto-link">Daniel Murphy</span> tries to become the <span class="sbn-auto-link">Mark DeRosa</span> type, and learn how to play second base, as a backup. Overbay is actually a pretty decent fielder despite his -.6 UZR in 2009. Before that though, he had a 2.9 UZR in 2008 and 3.9 in 2007. Bill James predicts a .354 wOBA for 2010, a slight decrease from 2009, but hopefully his good defense would return. <span class="sbn-auto-link">Ike Davis</span> will be the starting first baseman in 2011.</p> <p>For Second base, the Mets will sign <span class="sbn-auto-link">Placido Polanco</span> for 2 years/$10 million. Polanco has great defense (11.4 UZR!), and is also a former Philly, which puts up his Grission factor. His wOBA is projected to be .325, which is a little less than <span class="sbn-auto-link">Felipe Lopez</span>'s .333, who was the other contender for the position. However, Polanco's defense makes him more valuable than Lopez, who also has pretty good defense, just not as good as Polanco's.</p> <p><span class="sbn-auto-link">Wilson Valdez</span> will be signed to a $400,000 contract for defense.</p> <p><b>Starting Pitching</b></p> <p>Starting pitching is a tricky one. I feel <span class="sbn-auto-link">Mike Pelfrey</span>'s ERA will bounce back in 2010, making fans love him again and proclaim his as the number 2. With the better defense at Short and second, he'll probably give up less hits. Meanwhile, the pitching market is kind of bleh. But with the Red slashing payroll, the Mets can make a deal for <span class="sbn-auto-link">Aaron Harang</span>. I would trade Kirk Niuwenhuis and Parnell for Harang, who will make $12.5 million in 2010 and 2011. After Santana, Pelfrey and Harang, the Mets have Niese, Maine and Perez. Another option would be to sign <span class="sbn-auto-link">Rich Harden</span> for 1 year/$8 million with incentives.</p> <p><b>Relief Pitching</b></p> <p>BB-Rod as closer. Green, Socks!, Feliciano as the 7th and 8th inning guys. Sign Kiko Calero for 2 years/$4 million. Perez can be a long man if he sucks in the rotation, or loses out. <span class="sbn-auto-link">John Maine</span> could also go into the bullpen if he doesn't make the rotation. Other options for the 'pen include <span class="sbn-auto-link">Adam Bostick</span> as the second lefty.</p> <p>Payroll</p> <p>The total is 153.05 for this year and 151.65 next year (in millions). If this is a problem, I can make a few adjustments.</p> <p> </p> <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Name</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>2010 in millions</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>2011 in millions</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Snyder</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>4.75</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>5.75</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Santos</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.5</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Free Agent</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Thole</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.4</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.4</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Overbay</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>7</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Free Agent</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Davis</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>In AAA</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.4</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Evans</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.4</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.4</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Murphy</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.4</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.4</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Polanco</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>5</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>5</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Reyes</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>9</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>11 (option)</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Wright</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>10</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>14</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Valdez</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.4</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.4</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Holliday</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>20</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>20</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Beltran</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>18.5</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>18.5</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Francoeur</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>4</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>4.5</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Pagan</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.65</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.7</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Chavez</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>1</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>2.5</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Santana</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>21</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>22.5</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Harang</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>12.5</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>12.75 option</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Pelfrey</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.5</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.65 (arb)</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Maine</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>2.3</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>2.5</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Perez</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>12</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>12</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Niese</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.4</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.4</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Harden</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>8</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Free Agent</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Rodriguez</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>11.5</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>11.5</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Stokes</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.45</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.45</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Feliciano</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>2</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>2</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Green</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.5</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.55</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Calero</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>2</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>2</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Bostick</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.4</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>.4</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>Total</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>$153.05 Million</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="197"> <p>$151.65 Million</p></td></tr></tbody></table>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0