MIke Jacobs is a waste of space

When Daniel Murphy went down with his knee injury, Mike Jacobs was assured of a starter's spot, and even batted fourth. But what did Jacobs deserve to get that spot? Chris Carter had a much better spring, and even had the praise of Jerry Manuel, being called "an animal". But Omar Minaya was impressed by Jacobs' past history of hitting homers, if this quote means anything:

"If you see the teams in the World Series, they’ve got power," Mets General Manager Omar Minaya said. "You’ve got to be able to break the game open. It’s not only home runs, it’s slugging. I think the right word is slug. You’ve got to get the extra bases."

The problem is that Jacobs really doesn't do anything, except hit an occasional homer. Last year he had a .305 wOBA, 25 points below league average, and 45 points below his positional average, and 8 points behind his position replacement level (.313). He had a .282 BABIP, right along his career average, and his xBABIP was .303, so he wasn't extremely unlucky. Instead, he just had a bad season. He then followed that up batting .194 in the Spring. Chris Carter had a far superior spring, and had a .360 wOBA last year, and a .376 wOBA the year before, both in AAA. He can actually play a decent right or left field contrary to popular belief, and despite being pretty bad at first, he's better than Jacobs. In the end, Jacobs shouldn't even be on the team, let alone batting fourth, and if he is on the team, what is he doing batting fourth? Your 3rd best hitter should bat fourth, than third, than fifth. Jacobs should hit 7th or 8th, in front of Cora, but behind Francoeur.
In the end this is a subject that I'm nitpicking on, but its just another example of bad mismanagement by Jerry and Omar, and also shows that Omar only has knowledge of players he once had.

Could Jerry Manuel be making the right move?

Latest news from Port St Lucie is that Jerry Manuel is considering batting Jose Reyes third.
This is while Carlos Beltran would be injured

Manager Jerry Manuel said Friday that he might move Reyes to the third spot in the order from leadoff while outfielder Carlos Beltran is out after knee surgery. Either Angel Pagan, Beltran's likely replacement, or second baseman Luis Castillo would bat leadoff.

"I think he's ready for that if it's something we need," Manuel said, according to the Star-Ledger of Newark, N.J. "This could be a part of his evolution as a player."

"I'm good with it," Reyes said, according to the New York Post. "I just want to be in the lineup."

Reyes said the order switch isn't a definite yet, however.

"He's not sure yet. We just talked about it a little bit yesterday," Reyes said, according the New York Daily News. "I said I'm open to anything you want me to do. It's not a problem."

Could Jerry Manuel actually be making a good move in batting Jose Reyes third? In their book, The Book, Tom Tango, Andrew Dolphin and Mitchel Lichtman explored optimum lineup construction. They came up with this

Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. Your fourth-and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slows will have more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality.

CHONE has Reyes projected as the third best Mets hitter (excluding Beltran). So, in an optimal lineup construction, he should hit fourth. But how would Reyes hitting third look in a Mets lineup? I used Lineup Analysis to find out how many runs the Mets would score. The OBP and SLG columns used projections from CHONE
The Lineup was Pagan, Castillo, Reyes, Bay, Wright, Murphy, Francoeur, Catchers (.318 OBP, .371 SLG), Pitcher (.176 OBP and .179 SLG)
This Lineup would score 4.66 RPG. The optimum lineup, scoring 4.888 RPG would be Wright, Bay, Catchers, Pagan, Reyes, Francoeur, Murphy, Pitcher, Castillo.

If you switch Castillo and Pagan, having Castillo lead off, you score 4.7 RPG; switch Castillo and Pagan, and Bay and Wright, you get 4.8 RPG. Switch Bay and Wright, you get 4.65 RPG.

And if Reyes doesn't bat third, and the lineup is Reyes, Castillo, Wright, Bay, Murphy, Pagan, Francoeur, Catchers, Pitchers they'll score 4.66 RPG.

So if you're going to bat Reyes third, have Pagan lead off and Wright hit fifth, though it doesn't make that much difference if Wright bats fourth or fifth.
In the end, batting Reyes third or first is not going to make a difference to the Mets.

Another Great move by Jerry

Mets won today, recap later
But some news: Jerry Manuel is going to platoon Josh Thole when he is up. He'll only face righties. BTW, it's pronounced toll-ee.
Josh Thole vs righties: .328/.396/.437/.833
Josh Thole vs lefties: .328/.391/.388/.779
granted they are MiLB stats

Omir Santos vs lefties:
.234/.268/.377/.645
congrats, Jerry

Oh Stokes. Lose 5-2

Usually when the bullpen lows the game this year, Brian Stokes is not involved and/or did not come into the game. But in fact, Stokes did the blowing, though Jerry did not help. After giving up a double to Milton Bradley, a Derek Lee flyout moved Bradley to third. Jerry then moved the infield in. This decision backfired as Ramirez singled just past Wilson Valdez at short. If Valdez had been playing back, maybe Bradley doesn't score; even if he does, there are two outs. Baker then walked, and then bad pitch calling by Santos/dugout meant Stokes hung a curveball for Soriano to jack out of the park. Elmer Dessens came in to finish the inning, but the damage was done, and the good work that Pat Misch had done was all gone. Misch didn't strike out a lot (2 and one was Tedy Lilly), but he was effective in keeping Cubs of the bases, and runs of the socreboard. He only gave up 6 hits, and he walked 2. He got 9 ground outs, and 9 flyouts, and deserves another start (other options: Lance Broadway ugghh and Dessens ughh). Also, he could probably be effective at Citi Field if he gets 9 flyouts; the big outfield should make it easier for flyballs to be caught. The Cubs got on the board first, in the first, but the Mets tied it up in the second, when Francoeur doubled, Tatis singled him to third, and the Santos hit a pop up that Bradley dropped at his shoetops. It was called a hit, and Francoeur scored. The Mets could've scored more but Sullivan lined out to Baker, Valdez grounded out and Misch struck out. The Mets got the lead in the 8th, when Pagan doubled, and Castillo bunted him to third. I had a problem with this, but I'll discuss later. Murphy walked, Francoeur struck out, but Tatis doubled off the ivy, as Pagan scored. Murphy was thrown out at the plate, which was dumb, so the inning was over. The Mets went quietly in the 9th, despite Santos' walk.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Jerry having Castillo bunt Pagan over. Not only does it give the Bus an out they don't deserve, but it also lowers the Run Expectation for the inning:
Before: Runner at second, none out:1.14103
After: Runner at Third, one out: 0.96654
It also lowers the Win Expectancy from 54.17% t0 50%. And not only that, Castillo is your best hitter. He is the best player at getting on base (.404 OBP). So you shouldn't be bunting with him. Murphy walked, s0 if Castillo had gotten on base (via a walk, infield single or run scoring single) the bases could be loaded. Pagan would've socred on Tatis' double anyway. So, unless it's the pitcher, or the bottom of the 9th, no bunting Jerry.
Random Thought of the Day: I really hope this rumor that the Wilpons have to sell is true. If it is, I propose the fans own the team, and every year there is an election for President, who represents the club.
Clutch Play of the Game: Tatis double. +.179 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets: mets at Cubs, 4:10 PM ET (FOX)
Bobby Parnell (3-6 5.08 ERA 4.17 FIP 4.21 tRA) tries to make it 3 quality starts in a row. He'll face
Ryan Dempster (7-7 4.07 ERA 4.23 FIP 4.99 tRA)
Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™: We're now the #9 pick!!!! Only 5 back (ahead) of Baltimore for #3. We can do it guys! Bryce Harper here we come!!!

+/-1 for Jerry

So, I lied. I will post during the all star break, only because Jerry Manuel said a smart/interesting thing. According to Metsblog, the first starter who has 3 bad starts in a row will be removed from the rotation with Jon Niese. While, this is obviously pointed at Livan Hernandez, what if he has 3 good starts in a row now, and Johan Santana has 3 bad ones in a row. I applaud the decision to replace someone because Niese has been good, but I don't applaud the fact that he said 3 bad starts in a row. Livan just plain sucks now. Replace him now. Also, Jerry what qualifies as a good start?