Chat about John Lackey and Jason Bay

I spoke with Spencer (of this blog) about the Red Sox signing John Lackey (who wasn't interested in the Mets) and I added the obligatory Jason Bay question
Aidan:
John Lackey is described by the Mainstream Media to be a "Bulldog"
However, he has started 24 and 27 games the last 2 years and has suffered elbow and shoulder injuries. His deal was delayed because of a pre existing shoulder injury. How confident are you that the 5/$82.5 Million deal will turn out to be a good one?

Spencer:

The past couple years he has been less than healthy, and thats a risk we're taking. but he pitched at least 200 innings from 2003-2007 and has post-season experience (a 3.12 ERA). He looked fine at the end of last year and, along with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, he can make up the best 1-2-3 punch in baseball.

Aidan:

Josh Beckett is a free agent at the end of the season. Will the Red Sox be able to resign him to a deal, where he could arguably get the same type of money as Lackey or even more? And if not, is that why they brought in John Lackey?

Spencer:

We brought in Lackey to supplement our staff now, and obviously we are going to try to negotiate with Beckett during this year. He has been our rock since 2007 and we're definitely going to want him for longer. BUT if his price is absurdly high, we would just let the Yankees get him. And we would still have Lester, Lackey, and Buccholz (not to mention dice-k)

Aidan:

Now, I have to ask the obvious Jason Bay question. Mike Cameron signed with the Red Sox on Wednesday, so it looks like Bay's time with the Sox is over. If he signs with the Mets (and we're front runners) do you think he will fit in, and is he better than Holliday?

Spencer:

Bay is a slightly better defender (.988 vs .980, 15 Assists vs 7 last year (Aidan: UZR liked Holliday a lot more than Bay)), but Holliday is a slightly better hitter, if not slugger (.318 career BA vs .280). Bay can hit for more power and he walks more as well. i think the Mets have decent speed with Reyes, Wright, and Beltran (Holliday runs more than Bay) so I think that Bay would fit in more. but really, don't you think you guys have enough stars to underachieve already?(Aidan: The idiots in the FO and management are the reasons we underachieve)

Molina tells the Mets 3 years, I hope Omar doesn't do it

According to Ken Davidoff, Bengie Molina wants 3 years, citing deals given to Jason Kendall and Pudge Rodriguez. I for one, hope that Omar does not meet his demands, and instead, signs either A, no one, or B, sign Rod Barajas.
Barajas had a 7.6 RAR (runs above replacement, used for WAR) and then add in his 4.2 Runs for defense (from Driveline Mechanics), which would make for 11.2 RAR, and then added to baserunning, which is -1.6, which is 9.6, which divided by 10 (10 runs per win) leads to a 1 WAR.
Molina was 18 RAR, but added to defense (-3.4) and terrible baserunning (-4.5!!!, one of the worst in the league) makes him at only 10.1 RAR, which is only 1 WAR, just like Barajas. If Barajas can be had for one year, $4 million, do it. Forget Molina.

The Mets think Jason Bay is better defensively than Matt Holliday. It's not a joke

Yep, in another coup in the Mets FO, they believe that Jason Bay is better defensively than Matt Holliday.
"- Despite the numbers, they like him defensively over Holliday."
Source
How much do you want to bet that is because of this play:
Speaking of the numbers, Holliday is better than Bay in all the meanigful defensive stats (sorry, fielding percentage, and errors).
Holliday UZR vs Bay UZR, 2009
Holliday:5.7 (not to mention excellent 9.1 and 14.2 UZR's in 2007 and 08 in Coors Field)
Bay:-13
Holliday ZR vs Bay ZR, 2009
Holliday:17.148 ZR with STL, 11.658 with OAK, total of 13.341
Bay:11.255 ZR
ZR is zone rating: The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive zone, the zone being measured by STATS, Inc.

Seriously. Holliday>Bay. And now that Holliday has been offered 8/$128m, I would forget Bay's contract, which is the same basically, and offer 6/$110 to Holliday. Maybe'll accept. But I'd rather have Holliday than Bay.

Glossary

Here is a glossary of terms I will use. Click on the links. They help.
Offense
wOBA: Weighted On Base Average. It is a linear weights stat, on an On Base Percentage scale.
The formula:

(0.72xNIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B + 1.95xHR) / PA

For more info, go here.

OBP: On base percentage. It is the percent of the time a player gets on base. Formula: H+BB+HBP/PA

SLG: Slugging percentage. Measures the player's power. Unlike the other stats, the highest slugging possible is 4.000. SLG=TB/AB

OPS: On Base Plus Slugging. OPS=OBP+SLG. It's simple.

OPS +: Adjusted OPS, it is park and league adjusted. 100 is average, below is below average, above is above average. OPS+=100*(OBP/lgOBP + SLG/lgSLG -1)

wRAA: weighted runs above average. Measure of batting runs above average, with 0 being league average. wRAA= (wOBA-lgwOBA)/1.15*PA

BABIP: Batting average on Balls in Play. The name is self explanatory... This is not a skill stat however, it is a luck stat. League average is usually about .300, but if a player is above his usual average BABIP (David Wright, mid 2009) he's in for a bit of a decline as it stabilizes. BABIP=(H-HR)/(AB-HR-K+SF). This is also applicable to pitchers.

WAR: Wins Above Replacement level. It takes offensive, defensive, replacement and positional level stats. Replacement level is a AAA lifer or a guy you can pick up for league minimum. A team full of replacement level players would have 48.6 Wins out of 162 games. I really suggest that you go here to learn more to understand WAR.

Pitching

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. This is a stat that measures pitchers on an ERA scale, without defensive interference. It's independent of defense. FIP=(13*HR+3*(BB+HBP-IBB)-2*K)/IP+ a league constant usually 3.2, to get FIP onto an ERA scale.

xFIP: Expected FIP. Replaces HR with flyballs to make it more independent of luck. ONe of the best future performance stats. xFIP = ((FB*.11)*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP+league constant. Note: .11 is the league average HR/FB which is lgHR/lgFB

ERA: ER*9/IP. Next.

tRA: tRA, and tRA* are maybe the best pitching stats out there. On a run average scale, times by .92 to get to ERA. While I understand the numbers and how its calculated, I don't think I can understand it, so go here.

ERA+: Adjusted ERA. Park and league adjusted. ERA+= (lgERA/ ERA)*100. Below 100 is below average, 100 average, above 100 is average

tRA+: Adjusted tRA. Below 100 is below average, 100 average, above 100 is average. [((lgTRA - tRA) / lgTRA) + 1] * 100

WAR: There is WAR for pitchers. Go to fangraphs glossary to learn about it.

Defense

UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating. Runs saved above average, comapred to position, 0 average, 10 would be 10 runs above average. The primer is here, here and here. Click for a much better understanding.

If I start using a new stat, I'll add it here. This will be available as a link on the side of the blog.




Carlos Beltran season projection

Again, using the xBABIP calculator, Carlos' xBABIP is an astounding .428, which is way above his career norm of .307, and above his Chone projected .295 BABIP. I am using Chone projections, by the way, because it has been proven that Chone projects better than any other projection.
Back to Beltran: I'm going to calculate 2 adjusted season lines for Beltran: One with his .428 xBABIP, and one with his .307 BABIP.
Beltran is predicted to have 118 Games, 454 AB's, 126 hits, 27 doubles, 2 triples, 21 HR's, 79 RBI's, and have a line of .278/.362/.485. The totals are low because it's based on previous years to find an average, and last year Beltran missed a lot of games. Adjusted to a .428 BABIP, his line becomes .335/.412/.559. His wOBA is .419, which leads to 40 wRAA. He has a projected 1 UZR, gets a 1.8 positional adjustment and gets 17 Replacement runs. This adds up to 59.8 Runs, which divided by 10 gives Carlos a 6 WAR season, which is amazing.
However if his BABIP is .307, he bats .286/.370/.496 with a .378 wOBA. This leads to a 21.5 wRAA, which changes his WAR to 4 WAR, which is good, but not 6 WAR great.
However, it is still extremely productive, and I think his line will be something like .300/.390/.520. Remember, 2011 is the end of his contract, and personally, if Beltran is healthy he should be resigned.

2010 Mets Projections, Right Field

Sorry I haven't been writing recently, some stuff came up. This is a new series, where I will give some projections on the Mets for 2010, based on the CHONE projections. Today I am dealing with Jeff Francoeur.
Francoeur is projected to bat .270/.311/.421, in 596 AB's with 17 HR's and 84 RBI's . Because a lot all of his skill comes from his contact ability, BABIP is very important for him. So I looked at THT's xBABIP calculator, and based over his career, Francoeur should have a .310 BABIP. This is pretty close to his career of .307, and close to his projected chone BABIP of .300 (unfortunately, CHONE doesn't project Sac flies)
Seeing as his xBABIP is .310, that can change his slash stats, as he would now have about 166 hits instead of 161. An extra 5 hits would translate to (based on career norms) 4 singles and 1 double. That would change his slash stats to .297/.319/.431. His numbers lead to a .318 wOBA, which based on a .330 league average wOBA is -6.7 wRAA (to know what these mean, go here.) Then added to Beyond the Boxscore's projected UZR (fielding metric) of 2 runs, positional adjustement of -7.04 runs and his replacment level of 21.13 runs, we get a total of 9.39 Runs, which on the Runs to wins scale (10 Runs per win) leads to a .9 WAR. For more information on how this was computed, go to fangraphs.com, click on glossary and scroll down to wins above replacement.
.9 WAR, which on a $4.5 Million dollar per win scale means Francoeur is worth $4 million, which is about how much he's getting paid.
I'm all for giving Frenchy a chance, but if his BABIP is under .300, he's gonna suck majorly. I just hope Omar doesn't give him 3/36, like he did to Oliver Perez.
Next Up: Carlos Beltran.

Thankful

We as sports fans have much to be thankful for. Aidan, Spencer and I have much to be thankful for as friends. As a die hard sports fan, I have seen moments that can bring people to tears. We are thankful for underdogs. What would the world be like if there wasn't a goliath to lose to david. If anyone wants to see this in action look up highlights for Michigan versus Appalachian St. in 2007. The Mountaineers became the first D-1 AA team to beat a D-1 A team in the top 5. To listen to the announcers from the Appalachian St. radio network scream as the Mountaineers blocked Michigan's field goal as time expired and see the players carry their coach off the field is one sight that everyone should see. We are thankful for those players who have the ability to do things we can't believe possible. Lebron, Kobe, Albert Pujols, Peyton Manning, Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin,

trRA for hitters

Ever since Voros McCracken's ground breaking work on DIPS, and luck, there has been debate on how much control pitchers and hitters have on luck. BABIP measures whether a player has been lucky or unlucky, and there are many defense independent stats. One of the better ones is tRA or true Run Average. As this article shows, it is based on batted ball data. This same idea can be applied to hitters, and there can even be a regression value. The formula for this stat would be like wOBA; number of batted balls*batted ball run value and add this to each hitter and then divide by plate appearences. Walks and strikeouts can also be added. Using the run values given in the article about tRA, I applied this to David Wright and the Majors. For David Wright it comes out to .126; some work might be required on this statistical measure, but personally I think it is a good way to evaluate hitters, and rewards them for what they hit, rather than the outcome.

Correlation, Part 6

For a recap on Correlation and the rest of the series, go here.
Part 6 focuses on the correlation of wOBA to Runs. wOBA is weighted On Base Average, and is a linear weights stat on an On Base Percentage scale. Here is the formula, and some info.
The Correlation between Runs and wOBA was .93, so it has strong correlation. The R² is .87. This is by far the strongest correlation I've had in this study, and it is stronger than average, OBP and slugging, but strangely, not OPS.
The Graph: (Click to enlargen)

My Plan for 2010

On Amazin Avenue there is a contest for off season plan. I posted a plan, and I'm going to repost it here. The budget has to be about $150 million dollars, and trades and signings have to be realistic.
The Plan: (Courtesy of amazinavenue.com)

Outfield

Matt Holliday for 5 years/$100 million, $20 Million a year. This is probably the easiest move to make, as we know the Mets need power, and Holliday is the best player available. Also, what's nice is that Holliday's salary is only $8 million more than what came off the books when Delgado declared free agency. For the rest of the outfield, Angel Pagan gets re upped for about $650,000. Jeff Francoeur will get resigned for $4 million for 2010, and will face arbitration in 2011. The Mets will also sign Endy Chavez for $1 million (he's $1 million due to the injury).

Catcher

Trade Ruben Tejada and Eddie Kunz for Chris Snyder. Snyder makes $4.75 Million in 2010 and $5.75 million in 2011. and Omir Santos is the backup, for $500,000. Santos is actually a pretty good defender, according to Driveline Mechanics, worth 2.4 runs, with Snyder being worth -3. Josh Thole goes in AAA, but comes up in 2010.

First Base and Second Base

The Mets make this 3 way trade that's being reported, with Castillo going to Chicago, Bradley going to Toronto and Lyle Overbay going to the Mets. He will make $7 Million in 2010, and is a free agent in 2011. Nick Evans will be the backup first baseman, with Daniel Murphy tries to become the Mark DeRosa type, and learn how to play second base, as a backup. Overbay is actually a pretty decent fielder despite his -.6 UZR in 2009. Before that though, he had a 2.9 UZR in 2008 and 3.9 in 2007. Bill James predicts a .354 wOBA for 2010, a slight decrease from 2009, but hopefully his good defense would return. Ike Davis will be the starting first baseman in 2011.

For Second base, the Mets will sign Placido Polanco for 2 years/$10 million. Polanco has great defense (11.4 UZR!), and is also a former Philly, which puts up his Grission factor. His wOBA is projected to be .325, which is a little less than Felipe Lopez's .333, who was the other contender for the position. However, Polanco's defense makes him more valuable than Lopez, who also has pretty good defense, just not as good as Polanco's.

Wilson Valdez will be signed to a $400,000 contract for defense.

Starting Pitching

Starting pitching is a tricky one. I feel Mike Pelfrey's ERA will bounce back in 2010, making fans love him again and proclaim his as the number 2. With the better defense at Short and second, he'll probably give up less hits. Meanwhile, the pitching market is kind of bleh. But with the Red slashing payroll, the Mets can make a deal for Aaron Harang. I would trade Kirk Niuwenhuis and Parnell for Harang, who will make $12.5 million in 2010 and 2011. After Santana, Pelfrey and Harang, the Mets have Niese, Maine and Perez. Another option would be to sign Rich Harden for 1 year/$8 million with incentives.

Relief Pitching

BB-Rod as closer. Green, Socks!, Feliciano as the 7th and 8th inning guys. Sign Kiko Calero for 2 years/$4 million. Perez can be a long man if he sucks in the rotation, or loses out. John Maine could also go into the bullpen if he doesn't make the rotation. Other options for the 'pen include Adam Bostick as the second lefty.

Payroll

The total is 153.05 for this year and 151.65 next year (in millions). If this is a problem, I can make a few adjustments.

Name	2010 in millions	2011 in millions
Snyder	4.75	5.75
Santos	.5	Free Agent
Thole	.4	.4
Overbay	7	Free Agent
Davis	In AAA	.4
Evans	.4	.4
Murphy	.4	.4
Polanco	5	5
Reyes	9	11 (option)
Wright	10	14
Valdez	.4	.4
Holliday	20	20
Beltran	18.5	18.5
Francoeur	4	4.5
Pagan	.65	.7
Chavez	1	2.5
Santana	21	22.5
Harang	12.5	12.75 option
Pelfrey	.5	.65 (arb)
Maine	2.3	2.5
Perez	12	12
Niese	.4	.4
Harden	8	Free Agent
Rodriguez	11.5	11.5
Stokes	.45	.45
Feliciano	2	2
Green	.5	.55
Calero	2	2
Bostick	.4	.4
Total	$153.05 Million	$151.65 Million

Correlation, Part 5

For an explanation of Correlation, go here and for the other parts, go here.
This is the correlation of Babip to Runs: BABIP is batting average on balls in play: it shows you the percent of the time you get a hit when the ball is put in play (Home runs are excluded.)
The correlation was .57 (remember 1 is the best) and the R^2 was .33, which shows the percent of variance.
The equation of the line of regression (or best fit) was f(x)=0x+.23 (in the y=mx+b model)
Click to make larger

Round Up

I haven't posted in a while. The combination of a Yankees-Phillies World Series (I watched 3 innings of the whole thing), and the fact that there hasn't been a lot of Mets news lead to a lack of posts. However, I'm going to do a round up:

• Ike Davis went 1/2 with a single and groundout in yesterday's Arizona Fall League rising stars. According to Adam Rubin's list for BA, Ike is the Mets 4th prospect, with Wilmer Flores 3rd. I disagree, I see Davis with more potential right now (I know, Flores is 18), and I would put him 3rd.
  
• In regard to starting pitching: I do not think the Mets should sign John Lackey. He's a bit of an injury risk, and for the money he's going to get, I don't think he's worth it. If it came between Holliday and Lackey, I'd choose Holliday. Also, just because Mike Pelfrey's ERA jumped up a run, does not mean he can be a "number 2 or number 3" pitcher. His ERA went up because he's a groundball pitcher and the Mets sucked at defense this year.The Mets were the worst team in the NL, and the second worst in the Majors, with a UZR of -47.3 (that's 4.7 wins by the way), and a UZR/150 of -7.3. ERA is a bad way at evaluating pitchers; tRA, tRA*, FIP and xFIP are all better.
  
• Depending on how much Randy Wolf would cost, I'd say he's a better option then Lackey. Also, the Mets could make one year offers to both Bedard and Harder with incentives based on innings.
  

More later.

Jenry Mejia Pitch F/x

Mejia pitched yesterday for the Suprise Rafters, and didn't do that bad, going 3 innings giving up 4 hits, a walk, a run while striking out 3 in a 2-1 loss to the Peoria Javelinas.
Pitch F/x

Jenry Mejia, 10/26/09
Pitch Type	Avg Speed	Max Speed	Pitch Fx_x	Pitch FX_Z	Count	Strikes / %	Swinging Strikes / %
FF (FourSeam Fastball)	93.99	97.6	-6.18	5.58	37	22 / 59.46%	4 / 10.81%
CH (Changeup)	87.17	88.1	-9.71	3.52	9	7 / 77.78%	3 / 33.33%
CU (Curveball)	77.50	80.2	2.81	-8.18	5	2 / 40.00%	0 / 0.00%
FT (TwoSeam Fastball)	87.75	88.7	-10.93	5.17	2	2 / 100.00%	1 / 50.00%

His fastball has some pretty good sink on it, as Sam Page at Amazin Avenue pointed out in a post a while back. His Curveball also has some insane movement, but he only threw 5 so not much can be read into that, and his changeup has some sink too. He had 14.3% Swinging Strikes.

Met Prospects Pitch F/X

So, if you haven't heard, there are several Mets playing in the Arizona Fall League, on the Surprise Rafters. The Arizona Fall League also has Pitch F/X data, which is what you see on gameday.
It is explained here and here.
The last game that we have Pitch F/x data from (from Brooks Baseball) is October 22, where Josh Stinson went 1 inning, giving up 1 hit, and striking out 1. Stinson is a 21 year old right hander who had a 1.98 ERA in Port St Lucie.
His Pitch F/x data:

Josh Stinson, 10/22/09
Pitch Type	Avg Speed	Avg Pf_x(Horizontal Break)	Avg Pf_z (vertical break_
Fastball (4 seam)	91.07	-6.41	7.94
Changeup	84.75	-9.52	6.75
Slider	82.90	1.99	1.61
Curveball	77.97	6.85	-5.23
2-seam Fastball	89.90	-7.98	5.54

Information gotten from Brooks Baseball, which is an awesome site.
Negative values on horizontal break means the pitch is in to righties, and positive values mean it's in to lefties. 1.99 mean's it's fairly down the middle of the plate.
Stinson threw 13 fastballs, 3 curves, 2 changeups and 1 slider and 2 seam fastball.
So, his fastball breaks inside to righties, his curveball breaks inside and down to lefties, and low and away from righties, which seems to make it a good out pitch.

What the 2009 Mets could've been

Seeing as Omar and Jerry are staying, I wanted another good reason to have them fired. So, I decided to project the Mets win total in 2009 if no one was injured. I used Wins Above Replacement, which can be found at www.fangraphs.com. There were a couple of rules: Players who had had injuries last year that forced them miss significant time (10 games+ in one stretch) could get injured this year. Thus, Carlos Delgado, John Maine, Oliver Perez and JJ Putz all get injured in this year's version along with Ryan Church and Angel Pagan. Also, if a player was called up due to injury, and would not get called up unless in September does not appear. (Sucks for you, Argenis Reyes). Also, I am going by 4.5 PA/G for starters. wOBA stays the same for hitters, as does UZR.
For pitchers, I used the guide that fangraphs has. So, a pitcher's FIP (fielding Independent Pitching) is divided by .92 to convert it to a scale with Run Average. It is then divided by the Park Factor to normalize it (I think...). I used ESPN's Park Factors, which was .94 for Citi Field. Also, for the league RA FIP, I used 4.53, the NL RA.
So, the 2009 New York Mets, who do not lose Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Johan Santana finish 82-80. Feeling proud, Omar and Jerry?
Carlos Beltran has an awesome year, with a 6.5 WAR. David Wright has a 4 WAR. Because Fernando Nieve doesn't start, he gets 15 appearences out of the pen, 30 innings (2 per G) and has a war of 3.5. I know, it's fantasy, but I was just going by what I got, so bear with me.
Billy Wagner does not get traded for Chris Carter, and appears in 15 games. Ramon Castro still gets traded, Angel Pagan doesn't play in as many games, and Cory Sullivan doesn't play at all. Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey each have 33 starts, Tim Redding gets 20, Nelson Figueroa gets 19 starts.
I know this isn't the most accurate way of figuring out what the Mets could've been, but it wasn't extremely hard, and still paints the main picture: The Mets are a .500 team, and Omar Minaya did not give this team enough starting pitching depth, and the starting pitching wasn't good enough. It also shows that this team needs a good offensive outfielder and first baseman, as we knew about. What I'm mainly trying to say here is that the Mets bad season this year was not just due to injury; it was also due to lack of good starting pitching, starting pitching depth, and the need for an outfielder who is good offensively.
Update: The spreadsheet

Correlation, Part 4

This is the correlation of Isolated Power to Runs
For a explanation of correlation, go here.
Isolated Power is Slugging Percentage-batting average, and measures a player's true power
The correlation between Isolated Power and Runs is .66, just below the cut off mark of .7 for strong correlation.
The R squared is .43, and the equation is f(x)=0x+0.03
And here is the graph: (click to make bigger)

Correlation Part 3

The 3rd part, this shows the correlation of BB/K (walk/to strikeout ratio, offensively) with runs.
For an explanation of correlation go here.
The correlation of BB/K to runs is .37. The r squared is .14. There isn't that much correlation.
The equation is f(x)=0x+.2
Here is the graph:


Click to make bigger

Correlation, Part 2

For this part, I am focusing on K%, again from the years 2004-2008. For a recap of part one and an explanation of correlation, go here.
K% doesn't have any correlation, with a correlation of .02, and an R^2 of 0. This indicates that there is no correlation.
Here is the graph:
Click to make larger.
The equation (in slope-intercept form) is f(x)=0x+18.68.

Did I Not Say Figgy was Pretty Good

If only he could've done this in 2007. Or 2008. Oh well, congrats to Nelson as he pitches the second complete game shut out of the season for the Mets. The other one was Pat Misch. That sums up the season.
Adieu, 2009.

Correlation, Part One

The first part of a 10 part series, I'm following on this great post to The Hardball Times by Dan Fox. I'm going to follow with different stats, however: BB%, K%, BB/K, BABIP (batting average on balls in play), Isolated Power (Slugging-average), weighted Runs Created and weighted Runs Above Average and weighted On Base Average (see fangraphs for those 3), home run/Fly ball percentage, and line drive percentage.
I'm seeing which one correlates with run scoring the most;
correlation runs from -1 to 1
-1 indicates that a high value in one is a low value in the other; 0 means that there is no correlation, and 1 is perfect correlation. The cut off for good correlation is .7, because the R^2 is .49, which is half, which is acceptable. (R^2 is correlation squared).
My data is from 2005-2008; I may redo it with 2009 data as well.
The Correlation between runs and walk percentage is .41 which is an R^2 of .16. It's not strong, so walk percentage does not relate well with scoring runs.
The equation of the line of regression (line of best fit) is y=0.01x+3.96 (it's in the mold of the slope-intercept form: y-mx+b)

Click to make bigger

Grission T-Shirt

The Case for Nelson Figueroa

After Nelson Figueroa's last start, a 7 inning effort where he gave up 2 runs, his ERA was at 4.88. His FIP was at 4.67, and his tRA was at 6.07. However, since Johan Santana's last star on August 20th, and his subsequent end of season surgery, Figueroa has had a 3.45 FIP, in 35 and a third innings. He has struck out 32, walked 13, and given up 3 homers (and a 4.08 ERA). Maybe it's too small of a sample size, but with reports this week about Tim Redding coming back next year, I think the Mets should make a cheaper move, and sign Figueroa. He would probably make the Major League minimum, and would definately be better than Redding, who this year has a 5.19 FIP and a 5.39 tRA. He has a 5.31 FIP since August 20th (again, small sample size).
So, I think Figueroa is better, and I hope Omar does too. He may be 35 years old, but he will make major league minimum, and is better than Redding. Make the right move, Omar.

Mets Lose 11-3

Pat Misch went 1.1 innings and gave up 8 runs (including 4 homers)
Lance Broadway went 1.2 innings and gave up 3 runs
Tobi Stoner went 2 scoreless
Daniel Murphy hit home run #11, and now is the team leader
Only 12 left

Mets win Series, now have 65 wins

Only 5 more guys, just 5 more to 70.
The Mets defeated the Washington Nationals 6-2, and clinched fourth place. They actually beat a team worse than them.
John Maine had a good outing, 5 innings giving up 2 hits, walking one and striking out one. HE threw 75 pitches in 5 innings (pitch count). Brian Stokes made it look like he doesn't want to be on the team next year, as he gave up 2 runs in .2 of an inning, meaning Blow-Rod had to come in for his 33rd "save".
Offensively, Pagan, Murphy and Beltran all had good days, and Josh Thole went 1/2 with 2 walks and 1 RBI.
The Mets just need to go 5-7 to reach 70 wins.
Pat Misch (1-3 4.21 ERA 5.21 FIP 6.39 tRA) takes on
Derek Lowe (14-9 4.53 ERA 3.78 FIP 4.34 tRA)
as the Mets face the Braves.
By the way Mark Sanchez is pretty good. Maybe he could pitch for us during football's offseason.

Championship

Aidan, I'm just putting this here so that I can link to it from the fantasy baseball page.

Why Jeff Francoeur for 3 years is a bad idea

According to mets.com (Marty Noble) the Mets want to sign Francoeur for 3 years.
Here's the quote:
"The Mets believe Francoeur will look sharp in their 2010 uni, so much so that they are inclined to approach him about signing him to a three-year contract that would allow him to become a big league Beau Brummel, if he so chose. They like what they have seen of him in and out of uniform -- from his spirited demeanor to his nuclear arm to the two doubles he produced Saturday afternoon in their victory against the Nationals."
I won't even go over the "Beau Brummel" part (should Frenchy's cleats be coated with the champagne from 2007 that Willie Randolph never got to use?). How about the fact, that even if Francoeur look's good he still sucks. Sure, he's hitting .280. You know what his OBP is? .309. Cannon arm? Yeah, he has a good arm. He sucks at the rest of defence though, according to UZR. If he has such a great arm, make him a pitcher. Then he has value as a hitter.
You want a 3 year contract, Noble? For a guy who has been worth -9.1 runs? He has been worse offensively than an average hitter. The track record is against him. He has the worst plate discipline on the team, swinging at 35% of pitches outside the strikezone. He is not good at baseball. You know who's better, and cheaper? Bobby Abreu. So, for once, Omar/Wilpons/who ever is the GM, make the right effing decision. Because if we sign Francoeur for 3 years, I'm done.

Big Game Redding; METS WINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

Yep, Big Game Redding. Why not? I mean, if Scott Boras can pull it off with a 4.68 FIP pitcher, why can't Redding's agent? In 213 innings against National League East opponents, Redding has a 4.35 ERA. Against the Phillies he has a 3.01 ERA. Against the National League East, Redding has about a 4.77 FIP. Sign him up. 3 yrs/$36 Million. He only pitches against the NL East.
And he had a good start yesterday against a team that is 9th in runs (we're 11th), second in OBP, 6th in OPS, and 6th in wOBA. Redding went 7 innings, allowing 2 runs (1 of them earned), striking out 4, walking 2. He had an 8.2 swinging strike%. mets.com called it a "gritty start". I'm not sure what was gritty about it (his beard?), but it was a good start, and he's been our second best pitcher since Johan went down. Yes, that's sad. The best: Nelson Figueroa.
Offensively, it was Jeff Francoeur's day; The gritty right fielder went 2/4 with 2 runs and an rbi. He doubled in the second, and scored on Murphy's single; he doubled in Wright in the 8th; and he scored later that inning on an error by Nats first baseman (who is also an awesome hitter who the Met should've signed, he'd have 40 homers even in this place) Adam Dunn. Francisco Rodriguez decided to become a good pitcher again, and got his 32nd "save" and struck out 2. According to Marty Noble, the Mets are going to sign Francoeur to a 3 year contract extension. You know where I'm going with this? Marty Noble lobby for Francoeur contract extension.
Clutch Play of the Game: Francoeur RBI double in 8th. +.145 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets: Mets vs Nats, 1:10 PM
John Maine (5-5 4.45 ERA 4.84 FIP 5.74 tRA) takes on
Garret Mock (3-8 5.89 ERA 4.29 FIP 4.53 tRA)

Fire Omar?

Aidan, I know you're upset. But seriously, could anyone have predicted the extent of these injuries? The Mets have lost practically all of their decent players. Those injuries had nothing to do with management. Maybe Frankie blew a few saves, but really, all closers do that. And it makes sense for a manager to go to his $37 million investment. After spending that much money on someone, you can't not use him in the only situation where he would be used. This season was lost for the Mets, but it was not the fault of Jerry or Omar. I don't really know why I'm defending them, but maybe it's because you hate on them incessantly.
Just for the record, Boston is 7 up in the Wild Card.

Only 14 more

Yep, only 14 left. These Mets have started the 17 game stretch like the 2007 version did, losing the first 3. The Mets are 6th right now in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes. The Mets now need to go .500 to win 70 games. It's not happening. FIRE OMAR.
Mike Pelfrey wasn't very good, going 7 innings giving up 5 runs, 4 of them earned. He gave up 2 homers, (both 2 run homers), and had a 4.44% swinging strikes. Pelfrey needs to do better to show that he can be a consistent #2 starter. John Maine could be a better option then Pelfrey and now replaces Bobby Parnell in the rotation.
The Mets got something going in the 9th, scoring 3 runs off of closer Mike MacDougal. Wright singled in a run with the bases loaded, Beltran hit into a run scoring fielder's choice, and then an error by their shortstop led to it being 6-5, with runners on second and third. But Francoeur grounded out. By the way, Francouer saw 16 pitches in 5 at bats, which is lower than his average of 3.38.
Tim Redding (2-6 5.52 ERA 5.28 FIP 5.50 tRA) takes on
John Lannan (9-11 4.08 ERA 4.91 FIP 5.63 tRA)
1:10 PM ET, Citi Field.

Seriously. DOES ANYONE CARE?

I don't that much anymore, but the Mets lost 7-3. Nelson Figueroa was pretty bad, going 5 innings and giving up 6 runs. Tobi Stoner went 3 innings and gave up 1 run. START STONER!
Offensively, the Mets didn't do much, Fernando Tatis singled in 2 runs in the fourth and Daniel Murphy hit a homer in the 8th.
The Mets now play the Nationals.
Mike Pelfrey takes on JD Martin

Blow-Rod, and Murphy

The Mets were so close to a win on Wednesday night. They went up 3-0, but the Braves came back against Bobby Parnell, who was bad again. It was 4-4 in the eighth, when Jerry made the questionable move to pinch hit Omir "Short Swing" Santos against the left hander. Well, luckily for the Mets, and Jerry, Santos hit a go ahead home run off of Mike Gonzalez. Blow-Rod came in the 9th, and gave up a dobule to Garret Anderson, and then hit McCann. Escobar sacrificed the runners over, and then LaRoche was intentionally walked to set up the double play. Omar Infante hit the game tying sacrifice fly to make it 5-5. Then Ryan Church hit a grounder that Daniel Murphy attempted to do his best Bill Buckner impression. Of course, it bounced off his glove, and the game was over. It's easy to blame Daniel Murphy for this, but Blow-Rod just hasn;t been good for us this year. Maybe he's injured, or maybe he's just crap, or maybe's he crap and injured and overpiad. (I say the latter).
Bobby Parnell had a bad outing again, going 3.1, giving up 3 run, walking 3 and striking out 4. He actually had a swinging stike percentage of 13.3%. Josh Tholewas awesome, going 2/4 with 2 RBI's. Josh Thole is awesome.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Going to Blow-Rod. Jerry, I know everyone else was used, but he stinks. He just flat out stinks, and I would not use him anymore.
Random Thought of the Day: Maybe Francoeur would be better than Blow Rod at pitching?
Clutch Play of the Game: Santos homer in the 8th. +.265 WPA.

6-0 Braves

The only reason to watch Mets games now is Josh Thole and Daniel Murphy (and when he plays, Jerry, Nick Evans). Yesterday, Thole went 1/3 with a walk, and now has a .409/.417/.455 line with a OPS of .871. Nick Evans got a pinch hit appearance, and fouled out. The Mets got 3 hits and 3 walks off of a very impressive Tommy Hanson, who struck out 8 (11.6% swinging strike!). Daniel Murphy had 2 hits, and is batting .260/.310/.406 for a .716 OPS. As late as May 9th he was at .308/.369/.473, but it kind of went down hill, though he did have an okay August. Pat Misch was pretty bad for the seconsd start in a row, going 5 innings, giving up 4 runs and not striking out anyone. Elmer Dessens and Brian Stokes gave up single runs.
Jeff Francoeur saw 10 pitches in 4 plate appearences and has an OBP of .303. Ryan Church has an OBP of .339, and also leads Francoeur in batting average, .274 to .273. But not slugging, but he does win in OPS. 3/4 for Church. By the way, there are 17 games left in the season, and the only thing we can blow is our draft pick. But that would involve winning.
Stupid Decision of the Day: I don't think Jerry could change this game.
Up Next for the Mets: Mets at Braves, 7 PM
Bobby Parnell (3-8 5.49 ERA 4.27 FIP 4.39 tRA) takes on
Derek Lowe (14-9 4.47 ERA 3.78 FIP 4.33 tRA)

Vintage Pedro, Mets lose 1-0

Pedro is still Pedro; he went 8 innings, striking out 7, walking 2 and giving up 6 hits. Even though it's our offense, it still has Luis Castillo, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran in it, and those 3 went a combined 2/9 with 2 walks. Tim Redding pitched pretty well for the Mets, going 6 innings, and limiting the potent Phillies offense to 1 run on 3 hits and 2 walks. He struck out 3. The offense was pretty bad, only getting one hit off of Madson in the 9th. Anderson Hernandez and Brian Schnedier both had multi hit games. Read that again. The 2 best hitters was Hernandez and Schneider. That's sad.
The Mets have been eliminated from the National League East, and the National League Wild Card, so guys, there is not comeback.
Stupid Decision of the Day: This one is gonna go to Charlie Manuel for letting Pedro pitch for 130 pitches. Pretty damn dumb, Charlie.
Random Thought of the Day: Jerry, please start playing Thole, Evans, and every other young guy called up more regularly now. It makes it more interesting.
Clutch Play of the Game: Wright double in 6th. +.097 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets:
Offday, then series with Atlanta.
Brian Schnedier Line: .203/.279/.323. Up from .195/.274/.318

Mets come up Short, lose 5-4

In his return, John Maine went 3 innings, giving up 1 run on 2 hits, 1 walk and struck out 2. With a pitch count of 60, he made it through 3, with 57 pitches. He only had 3 swinging strikes for a 5.3%. Again, he really struggles in innings. If he had no pitch count, it would've been a typical Maine start, going 5 innings.
Tobi Stoner and Lance Broadway did not impress with Broadway giving up a key run in the 8th.
Josh Thole went 4 for 4 with an RBI single. Anderson Hernandez hit a 2 run homer in the 8th (second of the year and career), and the Mets got something going in the 9th, against Brad Lidge. However it would not be enough despite the efforts of Francoeur, Thole and Reed.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Going to Broadway in the 8th. Why get another inning out of him, Jerry? He sucks, it's 4-2, bring in someone to get 3 outs.
Clutch Play of the Game: Hernandez 2 run homer in the 7th. +.063 WPA.
More later on Game 2 of the double header.

David Wright Awesome, Mike Pelfrey not so much

I guess Pelfrey entered the Citizens Bank Park marathon. After going 6 innings, giving up 8 runs on 3 homers, 10 hits and a walk, Pelfrey decided to go running. He had a 7.3% swinging strike percentage. So, despite the Mets scoring 4 runs in the first, he left with the Mets in a 8-4 hole.
It was 9-5 in the 8th, when Tatis doubled, and then David Wright decided to have some payback on Brett Myers, and homered. Daniel Murphy's single scored Beltran to make it 9-8. However in the eighth, Sean Green and Pedro Feliciano loaded the bases. No worry though, as Feliciano struck out Howard to end the inning. In the 9th Tatis singled with 2 outs, and then Wright hit another homer to make it 10-9. In the bottom of the 9th, K-Rod went 1,2,3 on the Phillies, striking out 2 to get his 31st save. This game does show what might've been; The Phillies are still going to win the division, but its nice to win this game. Mets elimination number is 4.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Using Takahashi against the lefties. He gave up 2 hits, a run and got his out on a fly out. He faced 3 lefties; this year lefties are batting .311/.407/.511. JERRY DO YOU READ THE STAT HANDOUTS THEY GIVE YOU? Elmer Dessens holds lefties to .188/.286/.354 line. And he wasn't used yesterday.
Random Thought of the Day: Beltran, Tatis, and Wright went a combined 10/15 with 3 homers, 8 rbi's, 8 runs, and 20 total bases. That's a .667/.667/1.333 line. For a 2.000 OPS. Pretty damn good.
Clutch Play of the Game: David Wright 2 run homer. +.723 WPA (72%!!!!)
Up Next for the Mets: Doubleheader, 1:05 PM and 8:05 PM
John Maine (5-4 4.52 ERA 4.95 FIP 5.88 tRA) pitches in the first game against
Kyle Kendrick (0-1 5.06 ERA 4.40 FIP 7.47 tRA).
Tim Redding (2-5 5.78 ERA 5.42 FIP 5.54 tRA) pitches in the second game against
Pedro Martinez (4-0 3.64 ERA 3.96 FIP 4.96 tRA)

Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™

Team WPCT
Nats .348
Pirates .388
Royals .397
Orioles .407
Indians .429
D-Backs .437
METS .440 13 Games back on Nats
Padres .444
Reds .447
A's .450

Almost there guys, just need to shoot for number 5 only 1.5 back!!

Failcoeur: Lose 4-2

This is what was said when the Mets got Jeff Francoeur: "Francoeur, 25, is known across the league for his defense in right field. He won a Gold Glove Award in 2007 and has more assists than any other big league outfielder since he made his Major League debut in July 2005."
Example One: Great Throw.
Example Two: Great Tracking.
Defense, huh? And there are other examples. Like when he drops the ball in Washington. And ran away from the ball in Washington. Not that it would've mattered anyway. But, Francoeur was also got for his offense! Okay, he went 3/4 yesterday. That's great. He also saw 11 pitches in 4 at bats. Excellent.
Nelson Figueroa struggled through 5.1 innings, walking 5, striking out 3, and giving up 9 hits, but only letting 2 score. Brian Stokes and Elmer Dessens also gave up runs (though the run Stokes gave up is thanks to the second Francoeur play). I have a feeling that the wet conditions led to the control problems. Only 6% of his pitches were swinging strikes.
The Mets got 9 hits and a walk off of Cole Hamels, but only got 1 run. They had a chance in the 9th, but Jerry's favorite Cory Sullivan hit into a double play (it did plate the run) that basically killed the rally. More than a rally killing home run.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Pagan bunting in the 7th. Pagan is the second or third best hitter in the lineup. You don't want him bunting. You want Jeremy Reed, Nick Evans, Francoeur or Santos bunting, if you have to bunt. It acutally decreases our run scoring, Jerry from 1.49 innings to 1.41. And guess what, we scored one run in the inning. FAIL.
Random Thought of the Day: I'm gonna go out there and say Jerry has a bunting fetish.
Clutch Play of the Game: Sullivan single in 7th. +.094 WPA
Up Next for the Mets:
Mets at Phillies, 4:10 PM
Mike Pelfrey (10-10 4.83 ERA 4.18 FIP 4.82 tRA) takes on 78 year old
Jamie Moyer (12-9 4.98 ERA 5.10 FIP 5.70 tRA)

Awful Bullpen, lose 13-4

The Mets got swept by the Marlins (remember it's September), losing the finale 13-4. It was really closer than that, being 5-2 in the fourth, and 6-4 in the sixth. However, Sean Green, Pedro Feliciano and Lance Broadway proceeded to give up 4 runs in 3 combined innings, to make the game a blow out. Broadway really hasn't been good, though he has been unlucky, having a 2.45 FIP. Bobby Parnell was pretty bad, going 5 and giving up 6, walking 4 and striking out 6, and he did have 10.6% swinging strike percentage. Tobi Stoner made his major league debut, and pitched a scoreless inning.
The Mets scored in the fourth on a Nick Evans single, and Omir Santos sac fly. In the fifth, Wright hit an RBI fielder's choice, and Tatis hit a single.
Really, the Mets sucked, and the bright spot was that Evans had an RBI single.
Clutch Play of the Game: Tatis single in 5th, to make it 6-4. +.104 WPA
Up Next For the Mets
Mets at Phillies, 7:05 PM
Nelson Figueroa (2-4 4.74 ERA 4.71 FIP 6.05 tRA)
Cole Choker Hamels (8-9 4.32 ERA 3.84 FIP 4.52 tRA)

Misch=really not that good; lose 6-3

Well, that last start should end the Pat Misch is the number 5 starter for the Mets next year. Because if he is something has gone horribly wrong. He actually isn't that good. He has a low swinging strike percentage (3.8% from tonight's game), he doesn't strike many out (2 tonight), and he doesn't have great control, as he walks almost as many as he strikes out (1.12 K/BB Ratio). He also doesn't get that many groundballs either. And tonight, he gave up 2 home runs, as the Marlins have now hit 4 in 2 games in this series. The Mets got 3 in the 7th, on a Murphy double, Francoeur sac fly and Tatis ground out. Misch went 6, gave up 5 runs, Lance Broadway gave up 1 run in 1 inning, and Sean Green went 1 and Elmer Dessens went 2 scoreless.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Having Tatis pinch hit for Thole in the 7th. Tatis grounded out, anyway, Thole could've done that. Jerry, I don't know if you read the stats they give you, but Thole is almost just as good against lefties as he is against righties. Give him a chance Jerry, insted of your favorite .260/.325 hitter Tatis.
Random Thought of the Day: Wow, Jerry must really hate Nick Evans. What did he do, run over Jerry's dog?
Clutch Play of the game: Murphy double in 7th, +.054 WPA
Up next for the Mets: Mets vs Marlins, 7:10 PM
Bobby Parnell (3-7 5.25 ERA 4.12 FIP 4.29 tRA) takes on
Sean West (6-5 4.61 ERA 4.61 FIP 4.88 tRA)

Beltran back, Mets lose 4-2

The return of Carlos Beltran did not result in a dramatic homerun, though he came close in the 7th. Instead it resulted in a Mets loss. Tim Redding was his pretty usual self, going 5 innings, walking4 striking out 4, giving 4 runs on 2 homers. Only 2.9% of his pitches were swinging strikes, which is pretty damn awful. The bullpen (Elmer Dessens, Sean Green, Ken Takahasi, Pedro Feliciano and Brian Stokes) combined to go 4 scorless. The Mets scored on a Josh Thole sac fly (he went 0/3) for his first RBI, and a Luis Castillo infield single after Angel Pagan tripled. The Mets had the bases loaded in the 7th but Wright struck out, and Beltran flied out (just missed a grand slam), and the inning was over, and the Mets went quietly in the 8th and 9th.
Stupid Decision of the Game: Jerry wanting Pagan bunting in the 7th with 1st and 2nd, no one out. It's not the right call, Jerry, and Pagan let 2 strikes go by before flying out. Kudos to him for not bunting.
Random Thought of the Day: Well, this is the strongest lineup we have.
Clutch Play of the Game: Ross dp in second, +.108 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets: Mets vs Marlins, 7:10 PM
Pat Misch (1-1 3.25 ERA 4.58 FIP 5.68 tRA) looks for his second win. He faces
Ricky Nolasco (10-8 5.27 ERA 3.55 FIP 4.34 tRA)

Mets to Call up Tobi Stoner; Pre game vs Marlins

As reported here.
Stoner, 24 was 7-7 with a 3.96 ERA, 4.19 FIP and a 4.45 tRA in Buffalo this year. This translates to (per baseball prospectus) a 4.87 DERA, and a 4.99 FIP. Hey, he can't be worse than Oliver Perez, right?
Up Next for the Mets
Mets vs Marlins, 7:10 PM, Citi Field
Tim Redding (2-4 5.70 ERA 5.21 FIP 5.33 tRA) makes his 13th start. He faces
Rick VandenHurk (2-2 4.91 ERA 5.78 FIP 6.09 tRA)

More on Murphy

I was looking at Daniel Murphy's stats, and noticed how he has a BABIP 100 points lower than last year's (.386-.286). So, using this (password is tuftsbat if you use it), I attempted to find out where Murphy's babip should be. It is expected to be .298 for this year, so he really should have about 117 hits for a .274 batting average. This would also increase his OBP to .324. To determine his slugging is a little more difficult. To do his, I have to figure out the percentage of hits that are doubles and triples. 26% of his hits are doubles, and 2.7% of his hits are triples. (Because a home run is not ball in play on a playing field, there is no increase in homers). So, if I round, 2 of his extra 6 hits are doubles, and there are no extra triples. So 4 hits are singles, and 2 are doubles. This gives him approximately 181 total bases, which gives him a slugging percentage of .423.
Murphy also had a lucky year last year, where he had a BABIP of .386. His xBABIP was .340, so he should've had 34 hits. That would've meant his average was .260, with a OBP of .351. 22% of his hits were doubles, and 7.3% of his hits were triples. That means he would've had 8 doubles, 3 triples, 2 home runs and 21 singles. That is a slugging percentage of .412.
Daniel Murphy's actual stats:

Year	PA	AB	1b	2b	3b	HR	bb	k	hbp	tb
2008	151	131	27	9	3	2	18	28	1	62
2009	473	428	70	29	3	9	35	62	0	173

avg	obp	slg	ops	Ops+	wOBA
.313	.393	.473	.871	129	.373
.259	.311	.404	.716	87	.309

OPS + is a stat that is adjusted for park and league. 100 is average, above 100 is above average, below 100 is below average (129 is 29% better than average)

Daniel Murphy's xBABIP stats

Year	PA	AB	1b	2b	3b	HR	bb	k	hbp	tb
2008	151	131	21	8	3	2	18	28	1	54
2009	473	428	74	31	3	9	35	62	0	181

avg	obp	slg		ops	Ops+	wOBA
.260	.351	.412		.763	112	.345
.274	.324	.423		.747	108	.323

Note: OPS+ used ESPN Park factors for Shea Stdium (.946) and Citi Field (.941)

All in all Daniel Murphy would be a perfectly adequate bench player/utility guy, if he can play second base. A Mark DeRosa type.