Again, using the xBABIP calculator, Carlos' xBABIP is an astounding .428, which is way above his career norm of .307, and above his Chone projected .295 BABIP. I am using Chone projections, by the way, because it has been proven that Chone projects better than any other projection.
Back to Beltran: I'm going to calculate 2 adjusted season lines for Beltran: One with his .428 xBABIP, and one with his .307 BABIP.
Beltran is predicted to have 118 Games, 454 AB's, 126 hits, 27 doubles, 2 triples, 21 HR's, 79 RBI's, and have a line of .278/.362/.485. The totals are low because it's based on previous years to find an average, and last year Beltran missed a lot of games. Adjusted to a .428 BABIP, his line becomes .335/.412/.559. His wOBA is .419, which leads to 40 wRAA. He has a projected 1 UZR, gets a 1.8 positional adjustment and gets 17 Replacement runs. This adds up to 59.8 Runs, which divided by 10 gives Carlos a 6 WAR season, which is amazing.
However if his BABIP is .307, he bats .286/.370/.496 with a .378 wOBA. This leads to a 21.5 wRAA, which changes his WAR to 4 WAR, which is good, but not 6 WAR great.
However, it is still extremely productive, and I think his line will be something like .300/.390/.520. Remember, 2011 is the end of his contract, and personally, if Beltran is healthy he should be resigned.
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