Monday, November 16, 2009

trRA for hitters

Ever since Voros McCracken's ground breaking work on DIPS, and luck, there has been debate on how much control pitchers and hitters have on luck. BABIP measures whether a player has been lucky or unlucky, and there are many defense independent stats. One of the better ones is tRA or true Run Average. As this article shows, it is based on batted ball data. This same idea can be applied to hitters, and there can even be a regression value. The formula for this stat would be like wOBA; number of batted balls*batted ball run value and add this to each hitter and then divide by plate appearences. Walks and strikeouts can also be added. Using the run values given in the article about tRA, I applied this to David Wright and the Majors. For David Wright it comes out to .126; some work might be required on this statistical measure, but personally I think it is a good way to evaluate hitters, and rewards them for what they hit, rather than the outcome.

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