The Case for Nelson Figueroa

After Nelson Figueroa's last start, a 7 inning effort where he gave up 2 runs, his ERA was at 4.88. His FIP was at 4.67, and his tRA was at 6.07. However, since Johan Santana's last star on August 20th, and his subsequent end of season surgery, Figueroa has had a 3.45 FIP, in 35 and a third innings. He has struck out 32, walked 13, and given up 3 homers (and a 4.08 ERA). Maybe it's too small of a sample size, but with reports this week about Tim Redding coming back next year, I think the Mets should make a cheaper move, and sign Figueroa. He would probably make the Major League minimum, and would definately be better than Redding, who this year has a 5.19 FIP and a 5.39 tRA. He has a 5.31 FIP since August 20th (again, small sample size).
So, I think Figueroa is better, and I hope Omar does too. He may be 35 years old, but he will make major league minimum, and is better than Redding. Make the right move, Omar.

Mets Lose 11-3

Pat Misch went 1.1 innings and gave up 8 runs (including 4 homers)
Lance Broadway went 1.2 innings and gave up 3 runs
Tobi Stoner went 2 scoreless
Daniel Murphy hit home run #11, and now is the team leader
Only 12 left

Mets win Series, now have 65 wins

Only 5 more guys, just 5 more to 70.
The Mets defeated the Washington Nationals 6-2, and clinched fourth place. They actually beat a team worse than them.
John Maine had a good outing, 5 innings giving up 2 hits, walking one and striking out one. HE threw 75 pitches in 5 innings (pitch count). Brian Stokes made it look like he doesn't want to be on the team next year, as he gave up 2 runs in .2 of an inning, meaning Blow-Rod had to come in for his 33rd "save".
Offensively, Pagan, Murphy and Beltran all had good days, and Josh Thole went 1/2 with 2 walks and 1 RBI.
The Mets just need to go 5-7 to reach 70 wins.
Pat Misch (1-3 4.21 ERA 5.21 FIP 6.39 tRA) takes on
Derek Lowe (14-9 4.53 ERA 3.78 FIP 4.34 tRA)
as the Mets face the Braves.
By the way Mark Sanchez is pretty good. Maybe he could pitch for us during football's offseason.

Championship

Aidan, I'm just putting this here so that I can link to it from the fantasy baseball page.

Why Jeff Francoeur for 3 years is a bad idea

According to mets.com (Marty Noble) the Mets want to sign Francoeur for 3 years.
Here's the quote:
"The Mets believe Francoeur will look sharp in their 2010 uni, so much so that they are inclined to approach him about signing him to a three-year contract that would allow him to become a big league Beau Brummel, if he so chose. They like what they have seen of him in and out of uniform -- from his spirited demeanor to his nuclear arm to the two doubles he produced Saturday afternoon in their victory against the Nationals."
I won't even go over the "Beau Brummel" part (should Frenchy's cleats be coated with the champagne from 2007 that Willie Randolph never got to use?). How about the fact, that even if Francoeur look's good he still sucks. Sure, he's hitting .280. You know what his OBP is? .309. Cannon arm? Yeah, he has a good arm. He sucks at the rest of defence though, according to UZR. If he has such a great arm, make him a pitcher. Then he has value as a hitter.
You want a 3 year contract, Noble? For a guy who has been worth -9.1 runs? He has been worse offensively than an average hitter. The track record is against him. He has the worst plate discipline on the team, swinging at 35% of pitches outside the strikezone. He is not good at baseball. You know who's better, and cheaper? Bobby Abreu. So, for once, Omar/Wilpons/who ever is the GM, make the right effing decision. Because if we sign Francoeur for 3 years, I'm done.

Big Game Redding; METS WINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

Yep, Big Game Redding. Why not? I mean, if Scott Boras can pull it off with a 4.68 FIP pitcher, why can't Redding's agent? In 213 innings against National League East opponents, Redding has a 4.35 ERA. Against the Phillies he has a 3.01 ERA. Against the National League East, Redding has about a 4.77 FIP. Sign him up. 3 yrs/$36 Million. He only pitches against the NL East.
And he had a good start yesterday against a team that is 9th in runs (we're 11th), second in OBP, 6th in OPS, and 6th in wOBA. Redding went 7 innings, allowing 2 runs (1 of them earned), striking out 4, walking 2. He had an 8.2 swinging strike%. mets.com called it a "gritty start". I'm not sure what was gritty about it (his beard?), but it was a good start, and he's been our second best pitcher since Johan went down. Yes, that's sad. The best: Nelson Figueroa.
Offensively, it was Jeff Francoeur's day; The gritty right fielder went 2/4 with 2 runs and an rbi. He doubled in the second, and scored on Murphy's single; he doubled in Wright in the 8th; and he scored later that inning on an error by Nats first baseman (who is also an awesome hitter who the Met should've signed, he'd have 40 homers even in this place) Adam Dunn. Francisco Rodriguez decided to become a good pitcher again, and got his 32nd "save" and struck out 2. According to Marty Noble, the Mets are going to sign Francoeur to a 3 year contract extension. You know where I'm going with this? Marty Noble lobby for Francoeur contract extension.
Clutch Play of the Game: Francoeur RBI double in 8th. +.145 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets: Mets vs Nats, 1:10 PM
John Maine (5-5 4.45 ERA 4.84 FIP 5.74 tRA) takes on
Garret Mock (3-8 5.89 ERA 4.29 FIP 4.53 tRA)

Fire Omar?

Aidan, I know you're upset. But seriously, could anyone have predicted the extent of these injuries? The Mets have lost practically all of their decent players. Those injuries had nothing to do with management. Maybe Frankie blew a few saves, but really, all closers do that. And it makes sense for a manager to go to his $37 million investment. After spending that much money on someone, you can't not use him in the only situation where he would be used. This season was lost for the Mets, but it was not the fault of Jerry or Omar. I don't really know why I'm defending them, but maybe it's because you hate on them incessantly.
Just for the record, Boston is 7 up in the Wild Card.

Only 14 more

Yep, only 14 left. These Mets have started the 17 game stretch like the 2007 version did, losing the first 3. The Mets are 6th right now in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes. The Mets now need to go .500 to win 70 games. It's not happening. FIRE OMAR.
Mike Pelfrey wasn't very good, going 7 innings giving up 5 runs, 4 of them earned. He gave up 2 homers, (both 2 run homers), and had a 4.44% swinging strikes. Pelfrey needs to do better to show that he can be a consistent #2 starter. John Maine could be a better option then Pelfrey and now replaces Bobby Parnell in the rotation.
The Mets got something going in the 9th, scoring 3 runs off of closer Mike MacDougal. Wright singled in a run with the bases loaded, Beltran hit into a run scoring fielder's choice, and then an error by their shortstop led to it being 6-5, with runners on second and third. But Francoeur grounded out. By the way, Francouer saw 16 pitches in 5 at bats, which is lower than his average of 3.38.
Tim Redding (2-6 5.52 ERA 5.28 FIP 5.50 tRA) takes on
John Lannan (9-11 4.08 ERA 4.91 FIP 5.63 tRA)
1:10 PM ET, Citi Field.

Seriously. DOES ANYONE CARE?

I don't that much anymore, but the Mets lost 7-3. Nelson Figueroa was pretty bad, going 5 innings and giving up 6 runs. Tobi Stoner went 3 innings and gave up 1 run. START STONER!
Offensively, the Mets didn't do much, Fernando Tatis singled in 2 runs in the fourth and Daniel Murphy hit a homer in the 8th.
The Mets now play the Nationals.
Mike Pelfrey takes on JD Martin

Blow-Rod, and Murphy

The Mets were so close to a win on Wednesday night. They went up 3-0, but the Braves came back against Bobby Parnell, who was bad again. It was 4-4 in the eighth, when Jerry made the questionable move to pinch hit Omir "Short Swing" Santos against the left hander. Well, luckily for the Mets, and Jerry, Santos hit a go ahead home run off of Mike Gonzalez. Blow-Rod came in the 9th, and gave up a dobule to Garret Anderson, and then hit McCann. Escobar sacrificed the runners over, and then LaRoche was intentionally walked to set up the double play. Omar Infante hit the game tying sacrifice fly to make it 5-5. Then Ryan Church hit a grounder that Daniel Murphy attempted to do his best Bill Buckner impression. Of course, it bounced off his glove, and the game was over. It's easy to blame Daniel Murphy for this, but Blow-Rod just hasn;t been good for us this year. Maybe he's injured, or maybe he's just crap, or maybe's he crap and injured and overpiad. (I say the latter).
Bobby Parnell had a bad outing again, going 3.1, giving up 3 run, walking 3 and striking out 4. He actually had a swinging stike percentage of 13.3%. Josh Tholewas awesome, going 2/4 with 2 RBI's. Josh Thole is awesome.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Going to Blow-Rod. Jerry, I know everyone else was used, but he stinks. He just flat out stinks, and I would not use him anymore.
Random Thought of the Day: Maybe Francoeur would be better than Blow Rod at pitching?
Clutch Play of the Game: Santos homer in the 8th. +.265 WPA.

6-0 Braves

The only reason to watch Mets games now is Josh Thole and Daniel Murphy (and when he plays, Jerry, Nick Evans). Yesterday, Thole went 1/3 with a walk, and now has a .409/.417/.455 line with a OPS of .871. Nick Evans got a pinch hit appearance, and fouled out. The Mets got 3 hits and 3 walks off of a very impressive Tommy Hanson, who struck out 8 (11.6% swinging strike!). Daniel Murphy had 2 hits, and is batting .260/.310/.406 for a .716 OPS. As late as May 9th he was at .308/.369/.473, but it kind of went down hill, though he did have an okay August. Pat Misch was pretty bad for the seconsd start in a row, going 5 innings, giving up 4 runs and not striking out anyone. Elmer Dessens and Brian Stokes gave up single runs.
Jeff Francoeur saw 10 pitches in 4 plate appearences and has an OBP of .303. Ryan Church has an OBP of .339, and also leads Francoeur in batting average, .274 to .273. But not slugging, but he does win in OPS. 3/4 for Church. By the way, there are 17 games left in the season, and the only thing we can blow is our draft pick. But that would involve winning.
Stupid Decision of the Day: I don't think Jerry could change this game.
Up Next for the Mets: Mets at Braves, 7 PM
Bobby Parnell (3-8 5.49 ERA 4.27 FIP 4.39 tRA) takes on
Derek Lowe (14-9 4.47 ERA 3.78 FIP 4.33 tRA)

Vintage Pedro, Mets lose 1-0

Pedro is still Pedro; he went 8 innings, striking out 7, walking 2 and giving up 6 hits. Even though it's our offense, it still has Luis Castillo, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran in it, and those 3 went a combined 2/9 with 2 walks. Tim Redding pitched pretty well for the Mets, going 6 innings, and limiting the potent Phillies offense to 1 run on 3 hits and 2 walks. He struck out 3. The offense was pretty bad, only getting one hit off of Madson in the 9th. Anderson Hernandez and Brian Schnedier both had multi hit games. Read that again. The 2 best hitters was Hernandez and Schneider. That's sad.
The Mets have been eliminated from the National League East, and the National League Wild Card, so guys, there is not comeback.
Stupid Decision of the Day: This one is gonna go to Charlie Manuel for letting Pedro pitch for 130 pitches. Pretty damn dumb, Charlie.
Random Thought of the Day: Jerry, please start playing Thole, Evans, and every other young guy called up more regularly now. It makes it more interesting.
Clutch Play of the Game: Wright double in 6th. +.097 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets:
Offday, then series with Atlanta.
Brian Schnedier Line: .203/.279/.323. Up from .195/.274/.318

Mets come up Short, lose 5-4

In his return, John Maine went 3 innings, giving up 1 run on 2 hits, 1 walk and struck out 2. With a pitch count of 60, he made it through 3, with 57 pitches. He only had 3 swinging strikes for a 5.3%. Again, he really struggles in innings. If he had no pitch count, it would've been a typical Maine start, going 5 innings.
Tobi Stoner and Lance Broadway did not impress with Broadway giving up a key run in the 8th.
Josh Thole went 4 for 4 with an RBI single. Anderson Hernandez hit a 2 run homer in the 8th (second of the year and career), and the Mets got something going in the 9th, against Brad Lidge. However it would not be enough despite the efforts of Francoeur, Thole and Reed.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Going to Broadway in the 8th. Why get another inning out of him, Jerry? He sucks, it's 4-2, bring in someone to get 3 outs.
Clutch Play of the Game: Hernandez 2 run homer in the 7th. +.063 WPA.
More later on Game 2 of the double header.

David Wright Awesome, Mike Pelfrey not so much

I guess Pelfrey entered the Citizens Bank Park marathon. After going 6 innings, giving up 8 runs on 3 homers, 10 hits and a walk, Pelfrey decided to go running. He had a 7.3% swinging strike percentage. So, despite the Mets scoring 4 runs in the first, he left with the Mets in a 8-4 hole.
It was 9-5 in the 8th, when Tatis doubled, and then David Wright decided to have some payback on Brett Myers, and homered. Daniel Murphy's single scored Beltran to make it 9-8. However in the eighth, Sean Green and Pedro Feliciano loaded the bases. No worry though, as Feliciano struck out Howard to end the inning. In the 9th Tatis singled with 2 outs, and then Wright hit another homer to make it 10-9. In the bottom of the 9th, K-Rod went 1,2,3 on the Phillies, striking out 2 to get his 31st save. This game does show what might've been; The Phillies are still going to win the division, but its nice to win this game. Mets elimination number is 4.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Using Takahashi against the lefties. He gave up 2 hits, a run and got his out on a fly out. He faced 3 lefties; this year lefties are batting .311/.407/.511. JERRY DO YOU READ THE STAT HANDOUTS THEY GIVE YOU? Elmer Dessens holds lefties to .188/.286/.354 line. And he wasn't used yesterday.
Random Thought of the Day: Beltran, Tatis, and Wright went a combined 10/15 with 3 homers, 8 rbi's, 8 runs, and 20 total bases. That's a .667/.667/1.333 line. For a 2.000 OPS. Pretty damn good.
Clutch Play of the Game: David Wright 2 run homer. +.723 WPA (72%!!!!)
Up Next for the Mets: Doubleheader, 1:05 PM and 8:05 PM
John Maine (5-4 4.52 ERA 4.95 FIP 5.88 tRA) pitches in the first game against
Kyle Kendrick (0-1 5.06 ERA 4.40 FIP 7.47 tRA).
Tim Redding (2-5 5.78 ERA 5.42 FIP 5.54 tRA) pitches in the second game against
Pedro Martinez (4-0 3.64 ERA 3.96 FIP 4.96 tRA)

Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™

Team WPCT
Nats .348
Pirates .388
Royals .397
Orioles .407
Indians .429
D-Backs .437
METS .440 13 Games back on Nats
Padres .444
Reds .447
A's .450

Almost there guys, just need to shoot for number 5 only 1.5 back!!

Failcoeur: Lose 4-2

This is what was said when the Mets got Jeff Francoeur: "Francoeur, 25, is known across the league for his defense in right field. He won a Gold Glove Award in 2007 and has more assists than any other big league outfielder since he made his Major League debut in July 2005."
Example One: Great Throw.
Example Two: Great Tracking.
Defense, huh? And there are other examples. Like when he drops the ball in Washington. And ran away from the ball in Washington. Not that it would've mattered anyway. But, Francoeur was also got for his offense! Okay, he went 3/4 yesterday. That's great. He also saw 11 pitches in 4 at bats. Excellent.
Nelson Figueroa struggled through 5.1 innings, walking 5, striking out 3, and giving up 9 hits, but only letting 2 score. Brian Stokes and Elmer Dessens also gave up runs (though the run Stokes gave up is thanks to the second Francoeur play). I have a feeling that the wet conditions led to the control problems. Only 6% of his pitches were swinging strikes.
The Mets got 9 hits and a walk off of Cole Hamels, but only got 1 run. They had a chance in the 9th, but Jerry's favorite Cory Sullivan hit into a double play (it did plate the run) that basically killed the rally. More than a rally killing home run.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Pagan bunting in the 7th. Pagan is the second or third best hitter in the lineup. You don't want him bunting. You want Jeremy Reed, Nick Evans, Francoeur or Santos bunting, if you have to bunt. It acutally decreases our run scoring, Jerry from 1.49 innings to 1.41. And guess what, we scored one run in the inning. FAIL.
Random Thought of the Day: I'm gonna go out there and say Jerry has a bunting fetish.
Clutch Play of the Game: Sullivan single in 7th. +.094 WPA
Up Next for the Mets:
Mets at Phillies, 4:10 PM
Mike Pelfrey (10-10 4.83 ERA 4.18 FIP 4.82 tRA) takes on 78 year old
Jamie Moyer (12-9 4.98 ERA 5.10 FIP 5.70 tRA)

Awful Bullpen, lose 13-4

The Mets got swept by the Marlins (remember it's September), losing the finale 13-4. It was really closer than that, being 5-2 in the fourth, and 6-4 in the sixth. However, Sean Green, Pedro Feliciano and Lance Broadway proceeded to give up 4 runs in 3 combined innings, to make the game a blow out. Broadway really hasn't been good, though he has been unlucky, having a 2.45 FIP. Bobby Parnell was pretty bad, going 5 and giving up 6, walking 4 and striking out 6, and he did have 10.6% swinging strike percentage. Tobi Stoner made his major league debut, and pitched a scoreless inning.
The Mets scored in the fourth on a Nick Evans single, and Omir Santos sac fly. In the fifth, Wright hit an RBI fielder's choice, and Tatis hit a single.
Really, the Mets sucked, and the bright spot was that Evans had an RBI single.
Clutch Play of the Game: Tatis single in 5th, to make it 6-4. +.104 WPA
Up Next For the Mets
Mets at Phillies, 7:05 PM
Nelson Figueroa (2-4 4.74 ERA 4.71 FIP 6.05 tRA)
Cole Choker Hamels (8-9 4.32 ERA 3.84 FIP 4.52 tRA)

Misch=really not that good; lose 6-3

Well, that last start should end the Pat Misch is the number 5 starter for the Mets next year. Because if he is something has gone horribly wrong. He actually isn't that good. He has a low swinging strike percentage (3.8% from tonight's game), he doesn't strike many out (2 tonight), and he doesn't have great control, as he walks almost as many as he strikes out (1.12 K/BB Ratio). He also doesn't get that many groundballs either. And tonight, he gave up 2 home runs, as the Marlins have now hit 4 in 2 games in this series. The Mets got 3 in the 7th, on a Murphy double, Francoeur sac fly and Tatis ground out. Misch went 6, gave up 5 runs, Lance Broadway gave up 1 run in 1 inning, and Sean Green went 1 and Elmer Dessens went 2 scoreless.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Having Tatis pinch hit for Thole in the 7th. Tatis grounded out, anyway, Thole could've done that. Jerry, I don't know if you read the stats they give you, but Thole is almost just as good against lefties as he is against righties. Give him a chance Jerry, insted of your favorite .260/.325 hitter Tatis.
Random Thought of the Day: Wow, Jerry must really hate Nick Evans. What did he do, run over Jerry's dog?
Clutch Play of the game: Murphy double in 7th, +.054 WPA
Up next for the Mets: Mets vs Marlins, 7:10 PM
Bobby Parnell (3-7 5.25 ERA 4.12 FIP 4.29 tRA) takes on
Sean West (6-5 4.61 ERA 4.61 FIP 4.88 tRA)

Beltran back, Mets lose 4-2

The return of Carlos Beltran did not result in a dramatic homerun, though he came close in the 7th. Instead it resulted in a Mets loss. Tim Redding was his pretty usual self, going 5 innings, walking4 striking out 4, giving 4 runs on 2 homers. Only 2.9% of his pitches were swinging strikes, which is pretty damn awful. The bullpen (Elmer Dessens, Sean Green, Ken Takahasi, Pedro Feliciano and Brian Stokes) combined to go 4 scorless. The Mets scored on a Josh Thole sac fly (he went 0/3) for his first RBI, and a Luis Castillo infield single after Angel Pagan tripled. The Mets had the bases loaded in the 7th but Wright struck out, and Beltran flied out (just missed a grand slam), and the inning was over, and the Mets went quietly in the 8th and 9th.
Stupid Decision of the Game: Jerry wanting Pagan bunting in the 7th with 1st and 2nd, no one out. It's not the right call, Jerry, and Pagan let 2 strikes go by before flying out. Kudos to him for not bunting.
Random Thought of the Day: Well, this is the strongest lineup we have.
Clutch Play of the Game: Ross dp in second, +.108 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets: Mets vs Marlins, 7:10 PM
Pat Misch (1-1 3.25 ERA 4.58 FIP 5.68 tRA) looks for his second win. He faces
Ricky Nolasco (10-8 5.27 ERA 3.55 FIP 4.34 tRA)

Mets to Call up Tobi Stoner; Pre game vs Marlins

As reported here.
Stoner, 24 was 7-7 with a 3.96 ERA, 4.19 FIP and a 4.45 tRA in Buffalo this year. This translates to (per baseball prospectus) a 4.87 DERA, and a 4.99 FIP. Hey, he can't be worse than Oliver Perez, right?
Up Next for the Mets
Mets vs Marlins, 7:10 PM, Citi Field
Tim Redding (2-4 5.70 ERA 5.21 FIP 5.33 tRA) makes his 13th start. He faces
Rick VandenHurk (2-2 4.91 ERA 5.78 FIP 6.09 tRA)

More on Murphy

I was looking at Daniel Murphy's stats, and noticed how he has a BABIP 100 points lower than last year's (.386-.286). So, using this (password is tuftsbat if you use it), I attempted to find out where Murphy's babip should be. It is expected to be .298 for this year, so he really should have about 117 hits for a .274 batting average. This would also increase his OBP to .324. To determine his slugging is a little more difficult. To do his, I have to figure out the percentage of hits that are doubles and triples. 26% of his hits are doubles, and 2.7% of his hits are triples. (Because a home run is not ball in play on a playing field, there is no increase in homers). So, if I round, 2 of his extra 6 hits are doubles, and there are no extra triples. So 4 hits are singles, and 2 are doubles. This gives him approximately 181 total bases, which gives him a slugging percentage of .423.
Murphy also had a lucky year last year, where he had a BABIP of .386. His xBABIP was .340, so he should've had 34 hits. That would've meant his average was .260, with a OBP of .351. 22% of his hits were doubles, and 7.3% of his hits were triples. That means he would've had 8 doubles, 3 triples, 2 home runs and 21 singles. That is a slugging percentage of .412.
Daniel Murphy's actual stats:

Year	PA	AB	1b	2b	3b	HR	bb	k	hbp	tb
2008	151	131	27	9	3	2	18	28	1	62
2009	473	428	70	29	3	9	35	62	0	173

avg	obp	slg	ops	Ops+	wOBA
.313	.393	.473	.871	129	.373
.259	.311	.404	.716	87	.309

OPS + is a stat that is adjusted for park and league. 100 is average, above 100 is above average, below 100 is below average (129 is 29% better than average)

Daniel Murphy's xBABIP stats

Year	PA	AB	1b	2b	3b	HR	bb	k	hbp	tb
2008	151	131	21	8	3	2	18	28	1	54
2009	473	428	74	31	3	9	35	62	0	181

avg	obp	slg		ops	Ops+	wOBA
.260	.351	.412		.763	112	.345
.274	.324	.423		.747	108	.323

Note: OPS+ used ESPN Park factors for Shea Stdium (.946) and Citi Field (.941)

All in all Daniel Murphy would be a perfectly adequate bench player/utility guy, if he can play second base. A Mark DeRosa type.

Murph: Win 4-2

If the Mets hadn't gotten all their injuries, this would've been a series to be proud of. Win 2 out of 3 against the struggling Cubs, knocking them out of the Wild Card race, and getting a dominant start from Mike Pelfrey, and good hitting from Daniel Murphy. But, alas, we're not in contention, but we should still be proud of the fact that we won a series. Yep, we won our first series since July, and it was against a team over .500. Despite the fact that Mike Pelfrey only had a swinging strike % of 7.6, he gave up 1 run, on 5 hits, a walk, and he struck out 5. He got 10 groundouts and 9 flyouts. It's these kind of starts that make you think the Pelfrey can be a number 2 starter, and really he's been the same as last year. The difference: Alex Cora and co playing Short instead of Jose Reyes, and also a really sucky outfield defense.
Daniel Murphy was the star offensive performer, going 3/4 with a homer and 4 rbi's. He was a double shy of the cycle, and he raised his batting line to .255/.311/.404, and his OPS to .715. While much has been made of Murphy's downfall from last year, he does have an .286 BABIP, which is below average.
Frankie Rodrgiuez came on in the 9th for the save, and had to make it interesting with 2 outs, walking Baker and then giving up a double to Soto, but he got Fukodome to ground out to end the game.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Pinch hitting Schneider with Tatis. Playing the rightie lefty splits is stupid when you're in the lead in the 8th inning.
Random Thought of the Day: Why can't Josh Thole play back to back games? And, Jerry you play Schneider instead of him?
Clutch Play of the Game: Murphy 2 run triple in the 7th. +.151WPA.
Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™: Mets have 10th pick, 1.5 back (ahead) of Cleveland for 5th.
Brian Schneider Line: .195/.274/.318. Up from .185/.267/.311.
Up Next for the Mets: off day, then series with Marlins.

It wouldn't of lasted; Lose 5-3

In yesterday's game, Nelson Figueroa struck out 8 Cubs (bringing his total to 18 against them), gave up 7 hits and 2 walks in the 6 innings, and got 14.95% swinging strikes. However, he also gave up 4 runs, both on 2 run homers. The Mets struck out 10 times against Rich Harden in 5 innings, and 13 times overall. Harden had a 22.5% swinging strikes. Cory Sullivan hit another home run (power surge!) and now has a .287/.368/.455. He has a wOBA (weighted On Base average, stat that gives a value to everything in runs, and divides by Plate appearances, it's on a On Base Percentage scale) of .366 (average is .325). Josh Thole went 2/4, so he's now batting .444/.444/.556 for a 1.000 OPS and a .463 wOBA. He also hasn't swung at a pitch outside the strike zone yet, showing great plate discipline. (Frenchy, take notes) Luis Castillo went 2/5, and is now batting .311, with more importantly, an OBP of .400, which is good for 11th in the National League and 16th in all of Major League Baseball. David Wright went 1/4 with a sac fly, but also struck out a hat trick of times. He now has 113 strikeouts, and is on pace for 137.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Well, the fact that the Mets left 10 on is not Jerry's fault.
Random Thought of the Day: Nick Evans only pinch hits. C'mon Jerry, play him. Please.
Clutch Play of the Game: Pagan single in 7th. +.121 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets:
Mets vs Cubs 1:10 PM ET
Mike Pelfrey (9-10 5.03 ERA 4.29 FIP 4.97 tRA)
Randy Wells (10-7 2.90 ERA 3.83 FIP 4.49 tRA)

Back to Back wins: Win 6-2

When Brian Stokes came in the 8th inning, and his first batter, Milton Bradley hit a pop up that Francoeur and Pagan failed to catch, you thought it was all over. Bradley came in to score later in that inning, making it 1-1, meaning there would be no win for Bobby Parnell despite the right hander's 7 scoreless, striking out 7, walking 3 and giving up 5 hits. 11% of his pitches were swinging strikes, which is 4% above average. He loaded the bases with none out in the 7th, but struck out Mike Fontenot, Kosuke Fukodome and got his glove in front of a Ryan Theriot lined shot. Overall he pitched pretty well, but it's only his second good start.
The Mets scored in the second when Cory Sullivan homered. Then in the 8th, with the score tied 1-1, Castillo singled to lead off the inning, Wright singled moving Castillo to third, then Tatis (pinch hitting for Murphy) singled in Castillo. A wild pitch moved runners to second and third, and Francoeur was intentionally walked. Sullivan then singled to left to make it 3-1, then Santos hit a chopper over the drawn in infield to make it 5-1. Anderson Hernandez singled to make it 6-1, but then Stokes was out bunting runners to second and third, and then Pagan struck out and Castillo grounder out to end the inning. The Cubs had the bases loaded in the 9th, causing Blow-Rod to come in, but he got the job done, getting Ramirez to pop out, and striking out Jake Fox for his 29th save.
Stupid Decision of the Day: I was planning on making a big thing about how pinch hitting Murphy with Tatis was dumb, but then Tatis singled, so I didn't have to.
Random Thought of the Day: This home run by Sullivan means he starts for the next week, doesn't it. Why is Nick Evans in Jerry's doghouse?
Clutch Play of the Game: Wright single in 8th moving Castillo to third. +.175 WPA.
Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™: With the win it means the Mets now have the 10th pick, but only 2 back (ahead) of the A's for 5th pick, 7 back (ahead) of the Pirates for third pick, and are 15 back (ahead) of the Nats for number one, which is probably out of reach.
Up Next for the Mets: Cubs at Mets. 1:10 PM
Nelson Figueroa (2-3 4.50 ERA 4.52 FIP 6.14 tRA) takes on
Rich Harden (8-8 4.19 ERA 4.44 FIP 5.05 tRA)

It's all Thole: Win 8-3

The Mets have finally found their future catcher. While Josh Thole will not be a Mike Piazza, he can still be an effective hitter. He went 2/5 yesterday with a steal, as he singled in his first major league at bat. His line stands at .400/.400/.600. He also showed what he could on the defensive side, committing one passed ball, and calling a great game. Yes, I am saying that Pat Misch's second good start is the result of Josh Thole. Misch went 7 inning, gave up 2 runs, both on homers, struck out 3 and walked 2, for his first Major League win. Despite not getting many strikeouts, he did miss some bats, with a swinging strike percentage of 7.4%, just below the major league average. The homers were back to back, and came in his last inning; Misch did a good job of keeping the Rockies off of the bases, giving up 6 hits and the 2 walks. If he continues to pitch like this, I see no harm in letting him try for the number 5 spot in the rotation next year. Every Met position player had a hit; Thole, Murphy and Hernandez had 2; Wright and Pagan had 3. Wright had 3 rbi's wearing a normal helmet; Murphy had 2, both on his 2 run homer in the 9th. Pagan had an rbi and scored twice. All in all a good day for the New York Mets.
Stupid Decision of the Day: I give Jerry a thumbs up for this performance. Though it was all Thole.
Random Thought of the Day: Knowing the Mets, Thole won't play for another week.
Clutch Play of the Game:Wright 2 run double in 5th. +.125 WPA
Up Next for the Mets: Back to Citi Field against the Cubs, 7:10 PM.
Bobby Parnell (3-7 5.81 ERA 4.32 FIP 4.53 tRA) makes another start.
Carlos Zambrano (7-6 3.91 ERA 3.89 FIP 4.61 tRA) pitches for the Cubs.

Offense Sucks, as Does Stokes:Lose 5-2

Remember guys its September, so the bullpen is bad, the offense is bad, I used that line yesterday, didn't I? Well, Tim Redding was good for the second consecutive start, going 6.2, giving up 2 runs on 7 hits (one of them a homer) and a walk, and striking out 6. Brian Stokes, however was not good, getting one out, walking 3 (one intentional), giving up 3 hits, and 3 runs. The Mets had to turn to K-Rod to end the inning, and he did, getting Carlos Gonzalez to pop out to third, and striking out Seth Smith. Stokes was bad for the second time in 3 outing, hopefully though this doesn't change Jerry's use of him, just because there isn't anyone better (except Feliciano), and he's cheep, so should be considered for next year because he's somewhat decent. The fatal blow was driven in by Jason Giambi, with a 2 run single that made it 4-2; then Yorvit Torrealba singled to make it 5-2. In the 9th, the Mets went down quietly against Franklin Morales (who proved that anyone can be a closer). In fact the Mets could only muster 5 hits and a walk against Ubaldo Jimenez in 8 innings, and 2 runs, one of them coming on a Francoeur homer, the other coming on a Murphy sac fly in the first (an inning where Francoeur hit into an inning ending double play; he saw 10 pitches in 4 at bats).
Stupid Decision of the Day: Nothing. Can't blame Jerry.
Random Thought of the Day: Thole makes his debut tomorrow.
Clutch Play of the Game: Francoeur homer. +.116 WPA
Brian Schneider Line: .185/.267/.311
Up Next for the Mets: Mets at Rockies, 3:10 PM
Pat Misch (0-1 3.41 ERA 4.05 FIP 5.72 tRA) makes his second start. He faces
Jason Marquis (14-9 3.60 ERA 3.98 FIP 4.80 tRA)

Mets chances at winning last 30 games

So to see what the Mets chances of winning the next 30 games are, I used a stat made by Bill James called log-5, and the strength of schedule concept from football. From the Mets next 30 games (against the Rockies, Cubs, Braves, Nats, Marlins, Astros and Phillies) the total wins and losses for those teams are 4630-460. That works out to a .502 winning percentage. As of today the Mets have a .447 winning percentage. The log5 method is:

             A - A * B
 WPct = ----------------- where A is Team a's winning percentage and B is team B's winning percentage.

        A + B - 2 * A * B

The Mets will be team A, and the opponents team B. This comes out to .445 or 44.5%. That means we have a 44.5% chance of winning those games. That means over the last 30 games we would go 13-17. Which is pretty good considering our team, and we would be 72-90. However, I don't think we will, seeing as the Opponents winning percentage is brought down by the Nationals horrible record, and our's is brought up by our good record at the beginning of the year.
Still, 13 wins will see us to 72, and I guess thats the goal.

It is September: Lose 8-3

Mets fans remember that it is September, so the Mets are going to have games like this. Games where Mike Pelfrey is absolutely horrible, walks in a run (as does Sean Green. I mean, Jason Giambi? He had a .334 OBP! .364 slugging. Come on!). Where Mike Pelfrey also hangs pitches for Todd Helton and Carlos Gonzalez to homer on. Where Lance Broadway pitches better than Mike Pelfrey. Yep. it's that time of year.
The Mets scored 2 in the first, and could've scored more. Pagan singled, and Castillo looked to single to right field. However, Pagan who was running on the pitch was completely fooled by Troy Tulowitzki who convinced Pagan that the ball was caught. So, after rounding second, he turned, went past second and was forced out at second. I have no idea what Luis Alicea and Razor Shines were doing, but shouldn't they be telling Pagan to stay at second. Shouldn't Pagan also be looking at the flight of the ball, and Castillo, as he is rounding second to go back to first? David Wright then singled, and Francoeur brought in Castillo with a sac fly. Tatis doubled in Wright, Evans walked, but Santos struck out. The Mets would've scored at least once more, if Pagan hadn't been stupid. The Mets scored again in the 7th when they got back to back triples from Sullivan and Pagan, but it was too late, as Mike Pelfrey would go 4, give up 7 runs (6 earned), on 6 hits and 5 walks. He would strike out 4.
Stupid Decision of the Day: The Pagan play. For reasons stated above.
Random Thought of the Day: It would be so much more interesting to see Thole play every day instead of Santos.
Clutch Play of the Game: Tatis double. +.091 WPA
Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™: Mets are 8th. 5.5 back (ahead) of Pittsburgh for 3rd pick. 2 back (ahead) of the Padres for 5th.
Up Next for The Mets: Mets at Rockies 8:40 PM
Tim Redding (2-4 5.94 ERA 5.34 FIP 5.36 tRA) takes on
Ubaldo Jimenez (12-10 3.33 ERA 3.35 FIP 4.31 tRA)

Thole Called Up

Josh Thole will be called up when rosters expand. He will wear number 30.
Well now, at least we don't need to worry about him and the Rule V Draft.
Up Next for the Mets: Mets at Rockies, 8:40 PM ET
Mike Pelfrey (9-9 4.80 ERA 4.10 FIP 4.81 tRA) takes on
Jorge De la Rosa (12-9 4.72 ERA 4.08 FIP 5.23 tRA)

By the way, this is the 100th post of Mets MD. Hopefully the Mets will win, on our 100th post day (?).

Major League Roundup 8/31/09

The White Sox traded Jim Thome to the Dodgers and Jose Contreras to the Rockies. The Dodgers acquired Jon Garland from the Diamondbacks. The Giants signed Brad Penny.
Play off implication game
Braves 5, Marlins 2
Braves come back in 7th and 8th to beat Marlins; Kawakami out duels Johnson
Braves 3 back in Wild Card, 7.5 back of Phillies in the AL East
Rays 11, Tigers 7
Rays split the 4 game set with the Tigers. They are 5 back in the Wild Card as they start a key 3 game set with the Red Sox in Tampa.
Pitching Performance of the Night
Andy Pettite, NYY
8 IP 2 H 1 R 8 K, W
Hitting Performance of the Night
Adam Lind, Tor
3/5, 3 R, 8 RBI's
Honorable mention: The whole Toronto team