Mets chances at winning last 30 games

So to see what the Mets chances of winning the next 30 games are, I used a stat made by Bill James called log-5, and the strength of schedule concept from football. From the Mets next 30 games (against the Rockies, Cubs, Braves, Nats, Marlins, Astros and Phillies) the total wins and losses for those teams are 4630-460. That works out to a .502 winning percentage. As of today the Mets have a .447 winning percentage. The log5 method is:

             A - A * B
 WPct = ----------------- where A is Team a's winning percentage and B is team B's winning percentage.

        A + B - 2 * A * B

The Mets will be team A, and the opponents team B. This comes out to .445 or 44.5%. That means we have a 44.5% chance of winning those games. That means over the last 30 games we would go 13-17. Which is pretty good considering our team, and we would be 72-90. However, I don't think we will, seeing as the Opponents winning percentage is brought down by the Nationals horrible record, and our's is brought up by our good record at the beginning of the year.
Still, 13 wins will see us to 72, and I guess thats the goal.