Mets 5 Tigers 0: Dickey in Control

R.A. Dickey improved to 6-0 yesterday with a masterful 8 inning shutout performance of the Tigers. Dickey retired 15 of the last 16, striking out 4 and walking 2. Though he threw just 6 swinging strikes, he got 12 groundouts. His FIP, xFIP and tRA, while all being higher than his ERA, meaning regression is likely to occur, they are all in the 3s, meaning that Dickey will porbably continue this level of performance.


One reason why Dickey has been so effective is that as a knuckleballer, the pitch doesn't really move in the same way every time. The above graph shows just how much his knuckler was moving yesterday. Sometimes the pitch won't move, and on that occasion Dickey will be in trouble, but, as we've seen with Tim Wakefield, he can be a league average or better pitcher for the minimum salary.

Player of The Game: R.A. Dickey and Jose Reyes share the honors today. Reyes was a double away from the cycle and had .212 WPA, while Dickey increased the Mets chances of winning by 42.4%.

Yankees 2-1 Mets: Gah!

My first recap of 2010, and hopefully the first of many, if I have time to do it.
I'll be doing a new format of recap:

Questionable move
A detailed look into any jaw dropping idiocities questionable moves made by the Mets in the game.
Pitch F/x graph of the day
Usually looking at the strikezone plot or spin times speed of the Mets pitcher in the game.
Idea of the game
Personnel, game strategy; just my 2 cents on what could've been done differently. It can be tied back into Questionable move of the day.

So, to the recap:

Questionable move: Jerry Manuel has awful bullpen management skills. He's used Fernando Nieve in 25 games, and is projected to use him in 94. Nieve now no longer has the shiny ERA, and he has terrible peripherals, including a 15/15 K/BB ratio, and he has a high 5 FIP, xFIP and tRA. He should not be the set up man at all. Of course, in the Top of the 7th, Jerry goes to Elmer Dessens, who was just called up. While Dessens was unlucky to give up 2 runs (great defense, Alex Cora), but at what stage should he have been taken out? With runners at second and third, and none out, the Leverage Index was 2.44, which is highly above average. Jerry should've gone to his best available reliever, which was Francisco Rodriguez. Never mind him being the closer, he's the best reliever, and he should be coming in at high leverage situations, no matter the inning.
Pitch F/x graph


Takahashi's fastball was pretty effective, coupled with a slider down and away against lefties and a sinker down and away against righties. Despite not being a hard thrower, he still got 12.9% swinging strikes, which is above average. Swinging strikes is important because it can indicate how many strikeouts a pitcher will get; yesterday Takahashi struck out 5.
Idea of the game
Jeff Francoeur had a pretty awful game yesterday, like most of the Mets offense. However, he only saw 9 pitches in his 3 at bats as he went 0/3, dropping down to .221/.280/.379. Over his career, Francoeur hits lefties better than righties, having a .771 OPS against lefites, and a .725 OPS against righties. Over his minor league career, Chris Carter has a .896 OPS against righties, 100 points over his OPS against lefties. My idea is that Jerry Manuel platoon Francoeur and Carter, with Carter starting against righties, and Francoeur starting against lefties. It might be one way to get Francoeur to hit better, and to get more the Mets offense hitting better.

Raul Valdes for the rotation?

When Oliver Perez was removed from the rotation, Raul Valdes was mentioned as a possible replacement. In the end, the Mets went with R.A. Dickey, but Valdes came in for John Maine when he was removed for precautionary reasons, and pitched extremely well, striking out 6 in 5 innings. Is he a viable option for the rotation?

Stats:
Valdes, so far, has thrown 20.1 innings, hardly a big sample size. He has struck out 10.2/9 IP, and has a 3.3 K/BB ratio, both excellent figures.
As the above graph shows (click to make larger) Valdes gets excellent movement. That is one reason for his success, and his curve ball, with the most movement, is his outpitch, worth 2.8 runs.

The above graph again shows his movement, this time from the catchers perspective. The curve is a great pitch against lefties, though against righties, not as much, as it's down and in to them.

Conclusion
He has a somewhat worrying flyball trend that could regress, and I'd worried about him against righties. If he is going to start, the ideal conditions would be at Citi Field, with the large outfield, and against a lefty dominated lineup.

Johan's changeup

Johan Santana struck out 5 yesterday, and his great change up was particularly impressive. I'm going to look at Johan's tabular data for his changeup.
Velocity Pfx_x Pfx_z Px Pz Break length
80.01 MPH 7.43 6.07 .5 2.2 7.65”

What does that all mean? Here is a useful glossary, done by Mike Fast.
Velocity is obviously the velocity of the pitch, when released. Pfx_x is the horizontal movement of the pitch, in inches. Pfx_z is the vertical movement, in inches. Px is the location, in feet, horizontally. Right is positive, left is negative, and it's from the middle of the plate. Pz is the location in feet, vertically. Break length is the measurement of the greatest distance in inches from the straight path of a hypothetical pitch thrown from the same place.

Here is the location of his changeup
Point (0,-3) would be a right handed batter's feet, approximately.
Here's the average location of his changeup in just the strike zone.
As you can see, it's down and away, which is what makes it so devastating to right handed hitters.

I'm Back

Well, another season is in full swing, and I will be honest, I was nervous at the beginning. However it seems, like for the time being the Mets will be OK. Ike Davis, (a member of one of my fantasy teams) is proving that he is the future of the team. The team now has a even more solid core to build around. It seems like Frenchy is the outfield stud instead of his canadian counter part Jason Bay. If you look at pitching, only two of the rotation is looking shaky in Perez and Maine. Niese is showing glimpses that he can be a solid third starter, Pelf is looking like the second starter this team needs, and Santana has been great 3 of the 4 times he's gone out. This weekends series with the Braves is a big one, not only because they are a division rival, but because in a division filled with so many young stars, two of the youngest are the Braves Jason Heyward (the greatest hitting prospect in years according to SI) and Ike Davis (the savior). The Mets will try and ride the high they have after winning their first series of the year against the Cubs. They will send out Maine, Niese, and in the Sunday night game, Pelf agaist Tommy Hanson. That game might be the best chance to see a showcase of great all around young players. Both pitchers are 3-0, Frenchy is playing his old team, and the Mets are looking to show they can contend with the top tier of the division.

If only

It's not time to panic, not yet

When the Mets lost 2 out of 3 to the Nationals, and went to 2-4 for the season, there has been a lot of Fire Jerry proclaiming. I have 2 problems with this. 1) is that if you're going to fire Jerry 6 games into the season, why not do it at the end of last year? 2) we're a great catch away from being 3-3, and we lost a game in extras. While we're struggling to hit, and some of the pitching hasn't been great so far, the Mets are not in terrible shape, just yet. Even if they are, there is hope for next season and 2012. The Mets still have a core of David Wright, Jose Reyes, Jason Bay and Johan Santana. They will be joined in 2011 by Josh Thole and Ike Davis. Ruben Tejada will provide great defence at second base, instead of the black hole that is Luis Castillo. Jeff Francoeur can provide ok offence in right field, and if Plus/Minus is right, above average defence. Carlos Beltran will play out his contract, and will be resigned to a cheaper 2 year deal, and still hit to a tune of a .372 wOBA. And if he doesn't, Fernando Martinez will make his long anticipated debut. Meanwhile, Johan Santana will pitch well, Jon Niese and Mike Pelfrey will provide 4.25 FIPs and Oliver Perez will be serviceable. Jenrry Mejia will be a starter and be awesome.
So don't panic yet Mets fans. The future is still bright enough.

MIke Jacobs is a waste of space

When Daniel Murphy went down with his knee injury, Mike Jacobs was assured of a starter's spot, and even batted fourth. But what did Jacobs deserve to get that spot? Chris Carter had a much better spring, and even had the praise of Jerry Manuel, being called "an animal". But Omar Minaya was impressed by Jacobs' past history of hitting homers, if this quote means anything:

"If you see the teams in the World Series, they’ve got power," Mets General Manager Omar Minaya said. "You’ve got to be able to break the game open. It’s not only home runs, it’s slugging. I think the right word is slug. You’ve got to get the extra bases."

The problem is that Jacobs really doesn't do anything, except hit an occasional homer. Last year he had a .305 wOBA, 25 points below league average, and 45 points below his positional average, and 8 points behind his position replacement level (.313). He had a .282 BABIP, right along his career average, and his xBABIP was .303, so he wasn't extremely unlucky. Instead, he just had a bad season. He then followed that up batting .194 in the Spring. Chris Carter had a far superior spring, and had a .360 wOBA last year, and a .376 wOBA the year before, both in AAA. He can actually play a decent right or left field contrary to popular belief, and despite being pretty bad at first, he's better than Jacobs. In the end, Jacobs shouldn't even be on the team, let alone batting fourth, and if he is on the team, what is he doing batting fourth? Your 3rd best hitter should bat fourth, than third, than fifth. Jacobs should hit 7th or 8th, in front of Cora, but behind Francoeur.
In the end this is a subject that I'm nitpicking on, but its just another example of bad mismanagement by Jerry and Omar, and also shows that Omar only has knowledge of players he once had.

Calero, Niese, Figueroa and Mejia

The Mets signed Kiko Calero to a minor league contract, with $850 K if he makes the team and $650 K for performance bonuses. This is a great move by Omar Minaya and the Mets, and can shore up the back end of the rotation. Calero, 35, had a 2.39 tRA, 2.56 FIP, and a 3.92 xFIP. He also had a 1.95 ERA, which makes it interesting that no one else wanted to sign him.

Fernando Nieve pitched yesterday, and went 3 innings against the Cardinals, giving up 1 run while walking 2 and striking out 2. Nelson Figueroa, in the same game went 4 innings, striking out 5 and walking 1, though it was against a more weaker lineup as Pujols and Holliday were taken out.
Jon Niese went 2.2 innings, giving up a run, striking out 5, and walking 2, against the Marlins. Jenry Mejia went 2.1 innings, and striking out 4 and walking none. Despite Mejia's impressive beginning, he should stay in the minors this year, to keep his inning number down, and maybe can come up as a reliever later in the year a la Joba Chamberlain.

Meanwhile in the race for the number 5 starter, Fernando Nieve is going to make the team, as a long man or starter, because he's out of options. Figueroa should also make the team, as he's a solid pitcher who can start or relieve and had better peripheals last year than Nieve. And Jon Niese, who I would love to be the number 5 starter, will probably be in AAA, though will come up if one of the starters gets injured.

Could Jerry Manuel be making the right move?

Latest news from Port St Lucie is that Jerry Manuel is considering batting Jose Reyes third.
This is while Carlos Beltran would be injured

Manager Jerry Manuel said Friday that he might move Reyes to the third spot in the order from leadoff while outfielder Carlos Beltran is out after knee surgery. Either Angel Pagan, Beltran's likely replacement, or second baseman Luis Castillo would bat leadoff.

"I think he's ready for that if it's something we need," Manuel said, according to the Star-Ledger of Newark, N.J. "This could be a part of his evolution as a player."

"I'm good with it," Reyes said, according to the New York Post. "I just want to be in the lineup."

Reyes said the order switch isn't a definite yet, however.

"He's not sure yet. We just talked about it a little bit yesterday," Reyes said, according the New York Daily News. "I said I'm open to anything you want me to do. It's not a problem."

Could Jerry Manuel actually be making a good move in batting Jose Reyes third? In their book, The Book, Tom Tango, Andrew Dolphin and Mitchel Lichtman explored optimum lineup construction. They came up with this

Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. Your fourth-and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slows will have more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality.

CHONE has Reyes projected as the third best Mets hitter (excluding Beltran). So, in an optimal lineup construction, he should hit fourth. But how would Reyes hitting third look in a Mets lineup? I used Lineup Analysis to find out how many runs the Mets would score. The OBP and SLG columns used projections from CHONE
The Lineup was Pagan, Castillo, Reyes, Bay, Wright, Murphy, Francoeur, Catchers (.318 OBP, .371 SLG), Pitcher (.176 OBP and .179 SLG)
This Lineup would score 4.66 RPG. The optimum lineup, scoring 4.888 RPG would be Wright, Bay, Catchers, Pagan, Reyes, Francoeur, Murphy, Pitcher, Castillo.

If you switch Castillo and Pagan, having Castillo lead off, you score 4.7 RPG; switch Castillo and Pagan, and Bay and Wright, you get 4.8 RPG. Switch Bay and Wright, you get 4.65 RPG.

And if Reyes doesn't bat third, and the lineup is Reyes, Castillo, Wright, Bay, Murphy, Pagan, Francoeur, Catchers, Pitchers they'll score 4.66 RPG.

So if you're going to bat Reyes third, have Pagan lead off and Wright hit fifth, though it doesn't make that much difference if Wright bats fourth or fifth.
In the end, batting Reyes third or first is not going to make a difference to the Mets.

Mets trade Brian Stokes for Gary Matthews Jr

Omar, just when I thought you lost the Contest. While Brian Stokes wasn't the best (his 3.97 ERA was really lucky, a 4.63 FIP and a 5.50 tRA) he certainly was better than Gary Matthews Jr. Since signing that 5/$50 million contract, Matthews Junior has been worth -1.1 WAR. Yeah, negative. He can't hit anymore (his wOBA has been .324, .303 and .313 the last 3 years). He'd be a perfectly good fourth outfielder except he can't field anymore (1, -9.3, -14.5 UZR the last 3 years). I know we're paying him $1 million this year and next, but what do we get for that $1 million? Or, more importantly, who could we have signed?
But what does Omar think of it?

"He's a very versatile player"

Is versatile another way of saying he can suck at left, right and center field?

"I felt just that with Carlos being out, it's an opportunity to get a guy that's versatile, and a guy that in our ballpark can play all outfield positions. I just feel that versatility is important"

we get it. He's versatile. He will save you .9 runs in right field. That's all we can play. Oops, I forgot, we have Frenchy!
And, if you're so commited to versatility, why did you sign Alex Cora, who can only play second?

"and to be able to get a guy like him on board -- with Carlos or without Carlos -- I think it just makes our team better."

How the #@^&$@*&(*!&#^%^#&%$@%^&#! does getting someone below replacement level make the Mets better? Explain that to me Omar?

"There's an opportunity for him to come into New York and hopefully be able to get more playing time, I think the key for him is going to be playing time."

The key for him is to get more playing time. So he can suck more? I mean, I'm not Jeff Francoeur's biggest fan, but I'd rather have him playing right field and center field than Gary Matthews Jr.

Matthews wanted to be traded to a team that would allow him to start, and the Mets, at least temporarily, can offer him that assurance
WHAT THE %*&$&@(^*%$(@*&%((**(&@&^@#^$&^*@$*&@$^&^!&*(!)*($*(&@^!#^
WHAT ARE YOU SAYING ANTHONY DiCOMO?

"I think it's going to be open competition," Minaya said of the center-field job. "That's the same thing that I told Gary Matthews Jr. when he asked that. Nobody's going to be given a job. Whoever performs is going to be given the opportunity."
Pheew. You had me worried there Omar. I thought you were actually going to give the center field job to Gary Matthews Jr. Even you aren't that dumb.
Oh yeah, I forgot. You traded Brian Bannister, who would be the Mets 2nd best pitcher right now for murderer Amborix Burgos.

Omar, the Angels were not on the approved trading list for Omar™. You are only allowed to trade with Dayton Moore, Brian Sabean, Ed Wade and Ned Colletti.
bvbvnnnnnnnnnnnkzsbdlueFIZ uhewfaogiqaaopiu iAHJKLGFHUIGUEWUESA SGA HGABJHVBJAS VAIUYEAIG EWVAVL
*Head hits keyboard in frustration*

Jason Bay xBABIP projections

Continuing with the series, I used the xBABIP calculator to normalize the luck for Jason Bay, and to determine what his offensive output will be using this xBABIP and Chone projections.

Jason has a .352 xBABIP over his career, which is 20 points higher than his average BABIP. If we use his .352 xBABIP, Jason will bat .297/.402/.550 (AVG/OBP/SLG) which is a great year. He will hit 34 homers, and have a .410 wOBA. He is projected to have 622 plate appearences. If we use his average BABIP, .332, he'll bat .283/.391/.535, with a .399 wOBA.
Using his CHONE projections (.267/.376/.514, .388 wOBA, .307 BABIP) on Fangraphs, he is prjected for 4 WAR.
Using his xBABIP calculations and an average of his defensive projections from CHONE and Jeff Zimmerman's projections at Beyond the Boxscore, Jason has a total of 50.2 RAR, which leads to a 5 WAR. I think that is a little too optimistic, and his projected total from Fangraphs is probably right, 4 WAR.
CHONE, xBABIP normalized and BABIP normalized projections here.

Carlos Beltran surgery, Mets FO messes up

As you have probably heard, Carlos Beltran had surgery on his right knee, and should be out for 12 weeks before he can start baseball related activity. That means he is probably back around June 1. But what is more worrying is the complete idiocity shown by the Mets front office, yet again. In a development that rivals the Adam Rubin fiasco in terms of stupidity, the team say they wanted Beltran to have a third opinion to have the surgery. Of course, they determined this while he was having surgery. Beltran originally wanted to have surgery during the season, but the Mets didn't want him to, which can only be described as a blunder. He ended up playing in 19 meaningless games last year, and will know miss 2 months of an actual meaningful season (as it looks right now), when he could've had surgery earlier.
Beltran's agent, Scott Boras said that Beltran's personal doctor, Dt Steadman talked with the Mets team doctor, Dr Altcheck, who agreed Beltran should have surgery after pain in his knee was not going away. According to Boras, Dr Steadman was told that Dr Altcheck would tell the Mets.
The major blunder by the Mets was to make this feud public. It shows the Mets to be incompetent, again, and also insensitive. It also shows that the medical staff issues of last year have not gone away. Interestingly enough, it was John Ricco, the assistant GM who handled the Press conference. This can be read as the Mets hoping that the bad PR situation did not get any worse with Omar Minaya handling the press conference; they can remember the Adam Rubin fiasco as well.
Hopefully, Beltran gets well soon. It now looks like Angel Pagan will be the center fielder for 2 months. But while Beltran's loss is huge, it will be overshadowed by the Mets PR blunder. Seriously, what is Jay Horowitz up to?

Jason Bay signs for the Mets; will it be worth it in 5 years?

So Jason Bay has finally ended the will he won't he by signing a 4 year $66 million dollar contract, with a $17 million dollar vesting option. Bay is a good offensive player, but is pretty awful at defense, though his numbers may be exaggerated a bit by Fenway. However, for him to worth, effectively the $83 million dollar contract, he'd have to worth about 2.5 WAR at least, going forward. And the problem with this is that Bay is not getting any younger; 31 this year, he'll be 36 at the end of the contract in 2014. And while I'm happy that the Mets got Bay, instead of going for the cheaper, worse option, I still think Omar somewhat overpaid him. Bay was not really wanted by any other teams, as the teams that were apparently interested in him, the Mariners and the Red Sox had both just made acquisitions (Bradley for the M's, Cameron for the Sox) that meant that they weren't interested in him anymore. Taking a 5-4-3-2-1 weighted average of his WAR since 2005, Bay averages 3.1. He was 3.5 WAR last year, and using CHONE offensive predictions and Beyond the Boxscore's defensive predictions, he is worth 3.4 WAR, with a .385 wOBA. He'll be paid $15 million in 2010, and a 3.4 WAR would be worth $15.3 million. Hopefully, he can keep this level of production up, but if he declines this deal can be very very nasty for the Mets, especially as Bay is owed $16 million up to his final year. However, if he continues to average 3.1 WAR 2011+, that would add up to a 15.8 WAR, which would be worth $71.8 Million dollars total, at $4.5 million a win. I'm fine with that, and if thats the case, it could be a good signing by Omar.
Now, go out and sign Matt Holliday to play right. That would be awesome.