Continuing with the series, I used the xBABIP calculator to normalize the luck for Jason Bay, and to determine what his offensive output will be using this xBABIP and Chone projections.
Jason has a .352 xBABIP over his career, which is 20 points higher than his average BABIP. If we use his .352 xBABIP, Jason will bat .297/.402/.550 (AVG/OBP/SLG) which is a great year. He will hit 34 homers, and have a .410 wOBA. He is projected to have 622 plate appearences. If we use his average BABIP, .332, he'll bat .283/.391/.535, with a .399 wOBA.
Using his CHONE projections (.267/.376/.514, .388 wOBA, .307 BABIP) on Fangraphs, he is prjected for 4 WAR.
Using his xBABIP calculations and an average of his defensive projections from CHONE and Jeff Zimmerman's projections at Beyond the Boxscore, Jason has a total of 50.2 RAR, which leads to a 5 WAR. I think that is a little too optimistic, and his projected total from Fangraphs is probably right, 4 WAR.
CHONE, xBABIP normalized and BABIP normalized projections here.
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