Thursday, May 20, 2010

Raul Valdes for the rotation?

When Oliver Perez was removed from the rotation, Raul Valdes was mentioned as a possible replacement. In the end, the Mets went with R.A. Dickey, but Valdes came in for John Maine when he was removed for precautionary reasons, and pitched extremely well, striking out 6 in 5 innings. Is he a viable option for the rotation?

Stats:
Valdes, so far, has thrown 20.1 innings, hardly a big sample size. He has struck out 10.2/9 IP, and has a 3.3 K/BB ratio, both excellent figures.
As the above graph shows (click to make larger) Valdes gets excellent movement. That is one reason for his success, and his curve ball, with the most movement, is his outpitch, worth 2.8 runs.

The above graph again shows his movement, this time from the catchers perspective. The curve is a great pitch against lefties, though against righties, not as much, as it's down and in to them.

Conclusion
He has a somewhat worrying flyball trend that could regress, and I'd worried about him against righties. If he is going to start, the ideal conditions would be at Citi Field, with the large outfield, and against a lefty dominated lineup.

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