Mets trade Brian Stokes for Gary Matthews Jr

Omar, just when I thought you lost the Contest. While Brian Stokes wasn't the best (his 3.97 ERA was really lucky, a 4.63 FIP and a 5.50 tRA) he certainly was better than Gary Matthews Jr. Since signing that 5/$50 million contract, Matthews Junior has been worth -1.1 WAR. Yeah, negative. He can't hit anymore (his wOBA has been .324, .303 and .313 the last 3 years). He'd be a perfectly good fourth outfielder except he can't field anymore (1, -9.3, -14.5 UZR the last 3 years). I know we're paying him $1 million this year and next, but what do we get for that $1 million? Or, more importantly, who could we have signed?
But what does Omar think of it?

"He's a very versatile player"

Is versatile another way of saying he can suck at left, right and center field?

"I felt just that with Carlos being out, it's an opportunity to get a guy that's versatile, and a guy that in our ballpark can play all outfield positions. I just feel that versatility is important"

we get it. He's versatile. He will save you .9 runs in right field. That's all we can play. Oops, I forgot, we have Frenchy!
And, if you're so commited to versatility, why did you sign Alex Cora, who can only play second?

"and to be able to get a guy like him on board -- with Carlos or without Carlos -- I think it just makes our team better."

How the #@^&$@*&(*!&#^%^#&%$@%^&#! does getting someone below replacement level make the Mets better? Explain that to me Omar?

"There's an opportunity for him to come into New York and hopefully be able to get more playing time, I think the key for him is going to be playing time."

The key for him is to get more playing time. So he can suck more? I mean, I'm not Jeff Francoeur's biggest fan, but I'd rather have him playing right field and center field than Gary Matthews Jr.

Matthews wanted to be traded to a team that would allow him to start, and the Mets, at least temporarily, can offer him that assurance
WHAT THE %*&$&@(^*%$(@*&%((**(&@&^@#^$&^*@$*&@$^&^!&*(!)*($*(&@^!#^
WHAT ARE YOU SAYING ANTHONY DiCOMO?

"I think it's going to be open competition," Minaya said of the center-field job. "That's the same thing that I told Gary Matthews Jr. when he asked that. Nobody's going to be given a job. Whoever performs is going to be given the opportunity."
Pheew. You had me worried there Omar. I thought you were actually going to give the center field job to Gary Matthews Jr. Even you aren't that dumb.
Oh yeah, I forgot. You traded Brian Bannister, who would be the Mets 2nd best pitcher right now for murderer Amborix Burgos.

Omar, the Angels were not on the approved trading list for Omar™. You are only allowed to trade with Dayton Moore, Brian Sabean, Ed Wade and Ned Colletti.
bvbvnnnnnnnnnnnkzsbdlueFIZ uhewfaogiqaaopiu iAHJKLGFHUIGUEWUESA SGA HGABJHVBJAS VAIUYEAIG EWVAVL
*Head hits keyboard in frustration*

Jason Bay xBABIP projections

Continuing with the series, I used the xBABIP calculator to normalize the luck for Jason Bay, and to determine what his offensive output will be using this xBABIP and Chone projections.

Jason has a .352 xBABIP over his career, which is 20 points higher than his average BABIP. If we use his .352 xBABIP, Jason will bat .297/.402/.550 (AVG/OBP/SLG) which is a great year. He will hit 34 homers, and have a .410 wOBA. He is projected to have 622 plate appearences. If we use his average BABIP, .332, he'll bat .283/.391/.535, with a .399 wOBA.
Using his CHONE projections (.267/.376/.514, .388 wOBA, .307 BABIP) on Fangraphs, he is prjected for 4 WAR.
Using his xBABIP calculations and an average of his defensive projections from CHONE and Jeff Zimmerman's projections at Beyond the Boxscore, Jason has a total of 50.2 RAR, which leads to a 5 WAR. I think that is a little too optimistic, and his projected total from Fangraphs is probably right, 4 WAR.
CHONE, xBABIP normalized and BABIP normalized projections here.

Carlos Beltran surgery, Mets FO messes up

As you have probably heard, Carlos Beltran had surgery on his right knee, and should be out for 12 weeks before he can start baseball related activity. That means he is probably back around June 1. But what is more worrying is the complete idiocity shown by the Mets front office, yet again. In a development that rivals the Adam Rubin fiasco in terms of stupidity, the team say they wanted Beltran to have a third opinion to have the surgery. Of course, they determined this while he was having surgery. Beltran originally wanted to have surgery during the season, but the Mets didn't want him to, which can only be described as a blunder. He ended up playing in 19 meaningless games last year, and will know miss 2 months of an actual meaningful season (as it looks right now), when he could've had surgery earlier.
Beltran's agent, Scott Boras said that Beltran's personal doctor, Dt Steadman talked with the Mets team doctor, Dr Altcheck, who agreed Beltran should have surgery after pain in his knee was not going away. According to Boras, Dr Steadman was told that Dr Altcheck would tell the Mets.
The major blunder by the Mets was to make this feud public. It shows the Mets to be incompetent, again, and also insensitive. It also shows that the medical staff issues of last year have not gone away. Interestingly enough, it was John Ricco, the assistant GM who handled the Press conference. This can be read as the Mets hoping that the bad PR situation did not get any worse with Omar Minaya handling the press conference; they can remember the Adam Rubin fiasco as well.
Hopefully, Beltran gets well soon. It now looks like Angel Pagan will be the center fielder for 2 months. But while Beltran's loss is huge, it will be overshadowed by the Mets PR blunder. Seriously, what is Jay Horowitz up to?

Jason Bay signs for the Mets; will it be worth it in 5 years?

So Jason Bay has finally ended the will he won't he by signing a 4 year $66 million dollar contract, with a $17 million dollar vesting option. Bay is a good offensive player, but is pretty awful at defense, though his numbers may be exaggerated a bit by Fenway. However, for him to worth, effectively the $83 million dollar contract, he'd have to worth about 2.5 WAR at least, going forward. And the problem with this is that Bay is not getting any younger; 31 this year, he'll be 36 at the end of the contract in 2014. And while I'm happy that the Mets got Bay, instead of going for the cheaper, worse option, I still think Omar somewhat overpaid him. Bay was not really wanted by any other teams, as the teams that were apparently interested in him, the Mariners and the Red Sox had both just made acquisitions (Bradley for the M's, Cameron for the Sox) that meant that they weren't interested in him anymore. Taking a 5-4-3-2-1 weighted average of his WAR since 2005, Bay averages 3.1. He was 3.5 WAR last year, and using CHONE offensive predictions and Beyond the Boxscore's defensive predictions, he is worth 3.4 WAR, with a .385 wOBA. He'll be paid $15 million in 2010, and a 3.4 WAR would be worth $15.3 million. Hopefully, he can keep this level of production up, but if he declines this deal can be very very nasty for the Mets, especially as Bay is owed $16 million up to his final year. However, if he continues to average 3.1 WAR 2011+, that would add up to a 15.8 WAR, which would be worth $71.8 Million dollars total, at $4.5 million a win. I'm fine with that, and if thats the case, it could be a good signing by Omar.
Now, go out and sign Matt Holliday to play right. That would be awesome.