Chat about John Lackey and Jason Bay

I spoke with Spencer (of this blog) about the Red Sox signing John Lackey (who wasn't interested in the Mets) and I added the obligatory Jason Bay question
Aidan:
John Lackey is described by the Mainstream Media to be a "Bulldog"
However, he has started 24 and 27 games the last 2 years and has suffered elbow and shoulder injuries. His deal was delayed because of a pre existing shoulder injury. How confident are you that the 5/$82.5 Million deal will turn out to be a good one?

Spencer:

The past couple years he has been less than healthy, and thats a risk we're taking. but he pitched at least 200 innings from 2003-2007 and has post-season experience (a 3.12 ERA). He looked fine at the end of last year and, along with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, he can make up the best 1-2-3 punch in baseball.

Aidan:

Josh Beckett is a free agent at the end of the season. Will the Red Sox be able to resign him to a deal, where he could arguably get the same type of money as Lackey or even more? And if not, is that why they brought in John Lackey?

Spencer:

We brought in Lackey to supplement our staff now, and obviously we are going to try to negotiate with Beckett during this year. He has been our rock since 2007 and we're definitely going to want him for longer. BUT if his price is absurdly high, we would just let the Yankees get him. And we would still have Lester, Lackey, and Buccholz (not to mention dice-k)

Aidan:

Now, I have to ask the obvious Jason Bay question. Mike Cameron signed with the Red Sox on Wednesday, so it looks like Bay's time with the Sox is over. If he signs with the Mets (and we're front runners) do you think he will fit in, and is he better than Holliday?

Spencer:

Bay is a slightly better defender (.988 vs .980, 15 Assists vs 7 last year (Aidan: UZR liked Holliday a lot more than Bay)), but Holliday is a slightly better hitter, if not slugger (.318 career BA vs .280). Bay can hit for more power and he walks more as well. i think the Mets have decent speed with Reyes, Wright, and Beltran (Holliday runs more than Bay) so I think that Bay would fit in more. but really, don't you think you guys have enough stars to underachieve already?(Aidan: The idiots in the FO and management are the reasons we underachieve)

Molina tells the Mets 3 years, I hope Omar doesn't do it

According to Ken Davidoff, Bengie Molina wants 3 years, citing deals given to Jason Kendall and Pudge Rodriguez. I for one, hope that Omar does not meet his demands, and instead, signs either A, no one, or B, sign Rod Barajas.
Barajas had a 7.6 RAR (runs above replacement, used for WAR) and then add in his 4.2 Runs for defense (from Driveline Mechanics), which would make for 11.2 RAR, and then added to baserunning, which is -1.6, which is 9.6, which divided by 10 (10 runs per win) leads to a 1 WAR.
Molina was 18 RAR, but added to defense (-3.4) and terrible baserunning (-4.5!!!, one of the worst in the league) makes him at only 10.1 RAR, which is only 1 WAR, just like Barajas. If Barajas can be had for one year, $4 million, do it. Forget Molina.

The Mets think Jason Bay is better defensively than Matt Holliday. It's not a joke

Yep, in another coup in the Mets FO, they believe that Jason Bay is better defensively than Matt Holliday.
"- Despite the numbers, they like him defensively over Holliday."
Source
How much do you want to bet that is because of this play:
Speaking of the numbers, Holliday is better than Bay in all the meanigful defensive stats (sorry, fielding percentage, and errors).
Holliday UZR vs Bay UZR, 2009
Holliday:5.7 (not to mention excellent 9.1 and 14.2 UZR's in 2007 and 08 in Coors Field)
Bay:-13
Holliday ZR vs Bay ZR, 2009
Holliday:17.148 ZR with STL, 11.658 with OAK, total of 13.341
Bay:11.255 ZR
ZR is zone rating: The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive zone, the zone being measured by STATS, Inc.

Seriously. Holliday>Bay. And now that Holliday has been offered 8/$128m, I would forget Bay's contract, which is the same basically, and offer 6/$110 to Holliday. Maybe'll accept. But I'd rather have Holliday than Bay.

Glossary

Here is a glossary of terms I will use. Click on the links. They help.
Offense
wOBA: Weighted On Base Average. It is a linear weights stat, on an On Base Percentage scale.
The formula:

(0.72xNIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B + 1.95xHR) / PA

For more info, go here.

OBP: On base percentage. It is the percent of the time a player gets on base. Formula: H+BB+HBP/PA

SLG: Slugging percentage. Measures the player's power. Unlike the other stats, the highest slugging possible is 4.000. SLG=TB/AB

OPS: On Base Plus Slugging. OPS=OBP+SLG. It's simple.

OPS +: Adjusted OPS, it is park and league adjusted. 100 is average, below is below average, above is above average. OPS+=100*(OBP/lgOBP + SLG/lgSLG -1)

wRAA: weighted runs above average. Measure of batting runs above average, with 0 being league average. wRAA= (wOBA-lgwOBA)/1.15*PA

BABIP: Batting average on Balls in Play. The name is self explanatory... This is not a skill stat however, it is a luck stat. League average is usually about .300, but if a player is above his usual average BABIP (David Wright, mid 2009) he's in for a bit of a decline as it stabilizes. BABIP=(H-HR)/(AB-HR-K+SF). This is also applicable to pitchers.

WAR: Wins Above Replacement level. It takes offensive, defensive, replacement and positional level stats. Replacement level is a AAA lifer or a guy you can pick up for league minimum. A team full of replacement level players would have 48.6 Wins out of 162 games. I really suggest that you go here to learn more to understand WAR.

Pitching

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. This is a stat that measures pitchers on an ERA scale, without defensive interference. It's independent of defense. FIP=(13*HR+3*(BB+HBP-IBB)-2*K)/IP+ a league constant usually 3.2, to get FIP onto an ERA scale.

xFIP: Expected FIP. Replaces HR with flyballs to make it more independent of luck. ONe of the best future performance stats. xFIP = ((FB*.11)*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP+league constant. Note: .11 is the league average HR/FB which is lgHR/lgFB

ERA: ER*9/IP. Next.

tRA: tRA, and tRA* are maybe the best pitching stats out there. On a run average scale, times by .92 to get to ERA. While I understand the numbers and how its calculated, I don't think I can understand it, so go here.

ERA+: Adjusted ERA. Park and league adjusted. ERA+= (lgERA/ ERA)*100. Below 100 is below average, 100 average, above 100 is average

tRA+: Adjusted tRA. Below 100 is below average, 100 average, above 100 is average. [((lgTRA - tRA) / lgTRA) + 1] * 100

WAR: There is WAR for pitchers. Go to fangraphs glossary to learn about it.

Defense

UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating. Runs saved above average, comapred to position, 0 average, 10 would be 10 runs above average. The primer is here, here and here. Click for a much better understanding.

If I start using a new stat, I'll add it here. This will be available as a link on the side of the blog.




Carlos Beltran season projection

Again, using the xBABIP calculator, Carlos' xBABIP is an astounding .428, which is way above his career norm of .307, and above his Chone projected .295 BABIP. I am using Chone projections, by the way, because it has been proven that Chone projects better than any other projection.
Back to Beltran: I'm going to calculate 2 adjusted season lines for Beltran: One with his .428 xBABIP, and one with his .307 BABIP.
Beltran is predicted to have 118 Games, 454 AB's, 126 hits, 27 doubles, 2 triples, 21 HR's, 79 RBI's, and have a line of .278/.362/.485. The totals are low because it's based on previous years to find an average, and last year Beltran missed a lot of games. Adjusted to a .428 BABIP, his line becomes .335/.412/.559. His wOBA is .419, which leads to 40 wRAA. He has a projected 1 UZR, gets a 1.8 positional adjustment and gets 17 Replacement runs. This adds up to 59.8 Runs, which divided by 10 gives Carlos a 6 WAR season, which is amazing.
However if his BABIP is .307, he bats .286/.370/.496 with a .378 wOBA. This leads to a 21.5 wRAA, which changes his WAR to 4 WAR, which is good, but not 6 WAR great.
However, it is still extremely productive, and I think his line will be something like .300/.390/.520. Remember, 2011 is the end of his contract, and personally, if Beltran is healthy he should be resigned.

2010 Mets Projections, Right Field

Sorry I haven't been writing recently, some stuff came up. This is a new series, where I will give some projections on the Mets for 2010, based on the CHONE projections. Today I am dealing with Jeff Francoeur.
Francoeur is projected to bat .270/.311/.421, in 596 AB's with 17 HR's and 84 RBI's . Because a lot all of his skill comes from his contact ability, BABIP is very important for him. So I looked at THT's xBABIP calculator, and based over his career, Francoeur should have a .310 BABIP. This is pretty close to his career of .307, and close to his projected chone BABIP of .300 (unfortunately, CHONE doesn't project Sac flies)
Seeing as his xBABIP is .310, that can change his slash stats, as he would now have about 166 hits instead of 161. An extra 5 hits would translate to (based on career norms) 4 singles and 1 double. That would change his slash stats to .297/.319/.431. His numbers lead to a .318 wOBA, which based on a .330 league average wOBA is -6.7 wRAA (to know what these mean, go here.) Then added to Beyond the Boxscore's projected UZR (fielding metric) of 2 runs, positional adjustement of -7.04 runs and his replacment level of 21.13 runs, we get a total of 9.39 Runs, which on the Runs to wins scale (10 Runs per win) leads to a .9 WAR. For more information on how this was computed, go to fangraphs.com, click on glossary and scroll down to wins above replacement.
.9 WAR, which on a $4.5 Million dollar per win scale means Francoeur is worth $4 million, which is about how much he's getting paid.
I'm all for giving Frenchy a chance, but if his BABIP is under .300, he's gonna suck majorly. I just hope Omar doesn't give him 3/36, like he did to Oliver Perez.
Next Up: Carlos Beltran.