Murph: Win 4-2

If the Mets hadn't gotten all their injuries, this would've been a series to be proud of. Win 2 out of 3 against the struggling Cubs, knocking them out of the Wild Card race, and getting a dominant start from Mike Pelfrey, and good hitting from Daniel Murphy. But, alas, we're not in contention, but we should still be proud of the fact that we won a series. Yep, we won our first series since July, and it was against a team over .500. Despite the fact that Mike Pelfrey only had a swinging strike % of 7.6, he gave up 1 run, on 5 hits, a walk, and he struck out 5. He got 10 groundouts and 9 flyouts. It's these kind of starts that make you think the Pelfrey can be a number 2 starter, and really he's been the same as last year. The difference: Alex Cora and co playing Short instead of Jose Reyes, and also a really sucky outfield defense.
Daniel Murphy was the star offensive performer, going 3/4 with a homer and 4 rbi's. He was a double shy of the cycle, and he raised his batting line to .255/.311/.404, and his OPS to .715. While much has been made of Murphy's downfall from last year, he does have an .286 BABIP, which is below average.
Frankie Rodrgiuez came on in the 9th for the save, and had to make it interesting with 2 outs, walking Baker and then giving up a double to Soto, but he got Fukodome to ground out to end the game.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Pinch hitting Schneider with Tatis. Playing the rightie lefty splits is stupid when you're in the lead in the 8th inning.
Random Thought of the Day: Why can't Josh Thole play back to back games? And, Jerry you play Schneider instead of him?
Clutch Play of the Game: Murphy 2 run triple in the 7th. +.151WPA.
Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™: Mets have 10th pick, 1.5 back (ahead) of Cleveland for 5th.
Brian Schneider Line: .195/.274/.318. Up from .185/.267/.311.
Up Next for the Mets: off day, then series with Marlins.

It is September: Lose 8-3

Mets fans remember that it is September, so the Mets are going to have games like this. Games where Mike Pelfrey is absolutely horrible, walks in a run (as does Sean Green. I mean, Jason Giambi? He had a .334 OBP! .364 slugging. Come on!). Where Mike Pelfrey also hangs pitches for Todd Helton and Carlos Gonzalez to homer on. Where Lance Broadway pitches better than Mike Pelfrey. Yep. it's that time of year.
The Mets scored 2 in the first, and could've scored more. Pagan singled, and Castillo looked to single to right field. However, Pagan who was running on the pitch was completely fooled by Troy Tulowitzki who convinced Pagan that the ball was caught. So, after rounding second, he turned, went past second and was forced out at second. I have no idea what Luis Alicea and Razor Shines were doing, but shouldn't they be telling Pagan to stay at second. Shouldn't Pagan also be looking at the flight of the ball, and Castillo, as he is rounding second to go back to first? David Wright then singled, and Francoeur brought in Castillo with a sac fly. Tatis doubled in Wright, Evans walked, but Santos struck out. The Mets would've scored at least once more, if Pagan hadn't been stupid. The Mets scored again in the 7th when they got back to back triples from Sullivan and Pagan, but it was too late, as Mike Pelfrey would go 4, give up 7 runs (6 earned), on 6 hits and 5 walks. He would strike out 4.
Stupid Decision of the Day: The Pagan play. For reasons stated above.
Random Thought of the Day: It would be so much more interesting to see Thole play every day instead of Santos.
Clutch Play of the Game: Tatis double. +.091 WPA
Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™: Mets are 8th. 5.5 back (ahead) of Pittsburgh for 3rd pick. 2 back (ahead) of the Padres for 5th.
Up Next for The Mets: Mets at Rockies 8:40 PM
Tim Redding (2-4 5.94 ERA 5.34 FIP 5.36 tRA) takes on
Ubaldo Jimenez (12-10 3.33 ERA 3.35 FIP 4.31 tRA)

Big Pelf, Frenchy, if only it mattered. WIN, 4-2

3 months ago this was a series that was supposed to have mattered. A big 3 game weekend series, sublimely put in by MLB schedulers, so they could have "rivalry weekend". Well I guess the Red Sox-Yankees is still interesting. But, the Mets did win, maybe showing 38,243 (how the hell are they still getting that many?) what can happen. It was a heated game, after a rain delay, and Cole "Choker" Hamels plunked Big Pelf. And he hit Tatis. So Pelfrey hit Werth. You know, I'm not a big fan of the whole hitting people, and brawl thing (Our players could get hurt, if they already aren't hurt), but Pelfrey, if Hamels hit you, hit him back. Especially seeing as he was the first batter in the next inning after you got hit. When the Phillies took the lead, I thought that was that. Yes, I do not have much hope, even though its the first inning. But we came back. In the second Tatis led off with a triple, Murphy drove him in with a ground out, Santos singled, Hernandez flied out, Pelfrey got plunked, and then pagan drove in Santos with a single. Francoeur homered in the third, then Tatis got plunked, Murphy doubled, and Santos brought Tatis in for the Mets 4th and final run. The Phillies got one back in the 6th. Feliciano struck out Victorino and Howard, and Stokes got the final out in the 7th, and pitched a scoreless 8th too. Blow-Rod made it interesting in the 9th, giving up a double to Rollins and an infield single to Victorino, with one out but he struck out Utley and Howard to end the game.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Not going back after Hamels. Cause it would also be payback for the Mets are chokers comments. Even if they're true.
Random Thought of the Day: We're only 13.5 back!!! (Our elimination number is 29)
Clutch Play of the Game: Rollins fly out in 6th with bases loaded, 2 out. +.107 WPA
Up Next for the Mets: Second game, 7:10 PM ET
Tim Redding (1-4, 6.53 ERA 5.20 FIP 5.29 tRA) tries to show he is better than Livan.
J.A. Happ (9-2, 2.66 ERA 4.18 FIP 4.79 tRA)
By the Way, Jeff Francoeur's OBP reached .300. When we got him, it was .282.

Mike Pelfrey 2008 and 2009

After Last night's performance, Mike Pelfrey's ERA went to 4.88. This is a far cry from his ERA of 3.72 ERA last year. However, I think this has to do with the defense that has been behind him. His FIP (fielding independent pitching on ERA scale) was 3.96; this year it is 4.12, so there is not a lot of difference. This year, his K/9 is higher, his BB/9 is higher, but his groundball percentage is a percent higher, at 50.9 compared to 49.6. His HR/9 is a touch higher. This should account for the higher FIP, and the more groundballs might account for the higher ERA, seeing as the Mets defense has been pretty crappy this year. Another stat to measure pitchers is xFIP, and is available on the Hardball Times. Instead of HR, xFIP is expected FIP. Here is an article on the two. The formula for FIP is (13*HR+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP. Because pitchers sometimes have less control on home runs (due to park factors, altitude, etc) The Hardball Times replaced HR with the league average of HR/FB%, and used that to multiply flyballs. So the formula for xFIP= ((FB*HR/FB%)*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP. This is another good article. So Pelfrey's xFIP is 4.50, compared to 4.70 for last year. His BABIP is also higher this year, indicating he's been unlucky. So don't worry about Pelf, he'll be fine. ZiPS (Fangraphs.com projections) predicts that he'll have a 4.31 ERA for the rest of the year. So Pelf is fine, and is a good number 3 starter. Just not the number 2 guy.