More on Murphy

I was looking at Daniel Murphy's stats, and noticed how he has a BABIP 100 points lower than last year's (.386-.286). So, using this (password is tuftsbat if you use it), I attempted to find out where Murphy's babip should be. It is expected to be .298 for this year, so he really should have about 117 hits for a .274 batting average. This would also increase his OBP to .324. To determine his slugging is a little more difficult. To do his, I have to figure out the percentage of hits that are doubles and triples. 26% of his hits are doubles, and 2.7% of his hits are triples. (Because a home run is not ball in play on a playing field, there is no increase in homers). So, if I round, 2 of his extra 6 hits are doubles, and there are no extra triples. So 4 hits are singles, and 2 are doubles. This gives him approximately 181 total bases, which gives him a slugging percentage of .423.
Murphy also had a lucky year last year, where he had a BABIP of .386. His xBABIP was .340, so he should've had 34 hits. That would've meant his average was .260, with a OBP of .351. 22% of his hits were doubles, and 7.3% of his hits were triples. That means he would've had 8 doubles, 3 triples, 2 home runs and 21 singles. That is a slugging percentage of .412.
Daniel Murphy's actual stats:

Year	PA	AB	1b	2b	3b	HR	bb	k	hbp	tb
2008	151	131	27	9	3	2	18	28	1	62
2009	473	428	70	29	3	9	35	62	0	173

avg	obp	slg	ops	Ops+	wOBA
.313	.393	.473	.871	129	.373
.259	.311	.404	.716	87	.309

OPS + is a stat that is adjusted for park and league. 100 is average, above 100 is above average, below 100 is below average (129 is 29% better than average)

Daniel Murphy's xBABIP stats

Year	PA	AB	1b	2b	3b	HR	bb	k	hbp	tb
2008	151	131	21	8	3	2	18	28	1	54
2009	473	428	74	31	3	9	35	62	0	181

avg	obp	slg		ops	Ops+	wOBA
.260	.351	.412		.763	112	.345
.274	.324	.423		.747	108	.323

Note: OPS+ used ESPN Park factors for Shea Stdium (.946) and Citi Field (.941)

All in all Daniel Murphy would be a perfectly adequate bench player/utility guy, if he can play second base. A Mark DeRosa type.

Murph: Win 4-2

If the Mets hadn't gotten all their injuries, this would've been a series to be proud of. Win 2 out of 3 against the struggling Cubs, knocking them out of the Wild Card race, and getting a dominant start from Mike Pelfrey, and good hitting from Daniel Murphy. But, alas, we're not in contention, but we should still be proud of the fact that we won a series. Yep, we won our first series since July, and it was against a team over .500. Despite the fact that Mike Pelfrey only had a swinging strike % of 7.6, he gave up 1 run, on 5 hits, a walk, and he struck out 5. He got 10 groundouts and 9 flyouts. It's these kind of starts that make you think the Pelfrey can be a number 2 starter, and really he's been the same as last year. The difference: Alex Cora and co playing Short instead of Jose Reyes, and also a really sucky outfield defense.
Daniel Murphy was the star offensive performer, going 3/4 with a homer and 4 rbi's. He was a double shy of the cycle, and he raised his batting line to .255/.311/.404, and his OPS to .715. While much has been made of Murphy's downfall from last year, he does have an .286 BABIP, which is below average.
Frankie Rodrgiuez came on in the 9th for the save, and had to make it interesting with 2 outs, walking Baker and then giving up a double to Soto, but he got Fukodome to ground out to end the game.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Pinch hitting Schneider with Tatis. Playing the rightie lefty splits is stupid when you're in the lead in the 8th inning.
Random Thought of the Day: Why can't Josh Thole play back to back games? And, Jerry you play Schneider instead of him?
Clutch Play of the Game: Murphy 2 run triple in the 7th. +.151WPA.
Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™: Mets have 10th pick, 1.5 back (ahead) of Cleveland for 5th.
Brian Schneider Line: .195/.274/.318. Up from .185/.267/.311.
Up Next for the Mets: off day, then series with Marlins.