Johan's changeup

Johan Santana struck out 5 yesterday, and his great change up was particularly impressive. I'm going to look at Johan's tabular data for his changeup.
Velocity Pfx_x Pfx_z Px Pz Break length
80.01 MPH 7.43 6.07 .5 2.2 7.65”

What does that all mean? Here is a useful glossary, done by Mike Fast.
Velocity is obviously the velocity of the pitch, when released. Pfx_x is the horizontal movement of the pitch, in inches. Pfx_z is the vertical movement, in inches. Px is the location, in feet, horizontally. Right is positive, left is negative, and it's from the middle of the plate. Pz is the location in feet, vertically. Break length is the measurement of the greatest distance in inches from the straight path of a hypothetical pitch thrown from the same place.

Here is the location of his changeup
Point (0,-3) would be a right handed batter's feet, approximately.
Here's the average location of his changeup in just the strike zone.
As you can see, it's down and away, which is what makes it so devastating to right handed hitters.

I'm Back

Well, another season is in full swing, and I will be honest, I was nervous at the beginning. However it seems, like for the time being the Mets will be OK. Ike Davis, (a member of one of my fantasy teams) is proving that he is the future of the team. The team now has a even more solid core to build around. It seems like Frenchy is the outfield stud instead of his canadian counter part Jason Bay. If you look at pitching, only two of the rotation is looking shaky in Perez and Maine. Niese is showing glimpses that he can be a solid third starter, Pelf is looking like the second starter this team needs, and Santana has been great 3 of the 4 times he's gone out. This weekends series with the Braves is a big one, not only because they are a division rival, but because in a division filled with so many young stars, two of the youngest are the Braves Jason Heyward (the greatest hitting prospect in years according to SI) and Ike Davis (the savior). The Mets will try and ride the high they have after winning their first series of the year against the Cubs. They will send out Maine, Niese, and in the Sunday night game, Pelf agaist Tommy Hanson. That game might be the best chance to see a showcase of great all around young players. Both pitchers are 3-0, Frenchy is playing his old team, and the Mets are looking to show they can contend with the top tier of the division.

If only

It's not time to panic, not yet

When the Mets lost 2 out of 3 to the Nationals, and went to 2-4 for the season, there has been a lot of Fire Jerry proclaiming. I have 2 problems with this. 1) is that if you're going to fire Jerry 6 games into the season, why not do it at the end of last year? 2) we're a great catch away from being 3-3, and we lost a game in extras. While we're struggling to hit, and some of the pitching hasn't been great so far, the Mets are not in terrible shape, just yet. Even if they are, there is hope for next season and 2012. The Mets still have a core of David Wright, Jose Reyes, Jason Bay and Johan Santana. They will be joined in 2011 by Josh Thole and Ike Davis. Ruben Tejada will provide great defence at second base, instead of the black hole that is Luis Castillo. Jeff Francoeur can provide ok offence in right field, and if Plus/Minus is right, above average defence. Carlos Beltran will play out his contract, and will be resigned to a cheaper 2 year deal, and still hit to a tune of a .372 wOBA. And if he doesn't, Fernando Martinez will make his long anticipated debut. Meanwhile, Johan Santana will pitch well, Jon Niese and Mike Pelfrey will provide 4.25 FIPs and Oliver Perez will be serviceable. Jenrry Mejia will be a starter and be awesome.
So don't panic yet Mets fans. The future is still bright enough.

MIke Jacobs is a waste of space

When Daniel Murphy went down with his knee injury, Mike Jacobs was assured of a starter's spot, and even batted fourth. But what did Jacobs deserve to get that spot? Chris Carter had a much better spring, and even had the praise of Jerry Manuel, being called "an animal". But Omar Minaya was impressed by Jacobs' past history of hitting homers, if this quote means anything:

"If you see the teams in the World Series, they’ve got power," Mets General Manager Omar Minaya said. "You’ve got to be able to break the game open. It’s not only home runs, it’s slugging. I think the right word is slug. You’ve got to get the extra bases."

The problem is that Jacobs really doesn't do anything, except hit an occasional homer. Last year he had a .305 wOBA, 25 points below league average, and 45 points below his positional average, and 8 points behind his position replacement level (.313). He had a .282 BABIP, right along his career average, and his xBABIP was .303, so he wasn't extremely unlucky. Instead, he just had a bad season. He then followed that up batting .194 in the Spring. Chris Carter had a far superior spring, and had a .360 wOBA last year, and a .376 wOBA the year before, both in AAA. He can actually play a decent right or left field contrary to popular belief, and despite being pretty bad at first, he's better than Jacobs. In the end, Jacobs shouldn't even be on the team, let alone batting fourth, and if he is on the team, what is he doing batting fourth? Your 3rd best hitter should bat fourth, than third, than fifth. Jacobs should hit 7th or 8th, in front of Cora, but behind Francoeur.
In the end this is a subject that I'm nitpicking on, but its just another example of bad mismanagement by Jerry and Omar, and also shows that Omar only has knowledge of players he once had.

Calero, Niese, Figueroa and Mejia

The Mets signed Kiko Calero to a minor league contract, with $850 K if he makes the team and $650 K for performance bonuses. This is a great move by Omar Minaya and the Mets, and can shore up the back end of the rotation. Calero, 35, had a 2.39 tRA, 2.56 FIP, and a 3.92 xFIP. He also had a 1.95 ERA, which makes it interesting that no one else wanted to sign him.

Fernando Nieve pitched yesterday, and went 3 innings against the Cardinals, giving up 1 run while walking 2 and striking out 2. Nelson Figueroa, in the same game went 4 innings, striking out 5 and walking 1, though it was against a more weaker lineup as Pujols and Holliday were taken out.
Jon Niese went 2.2 innings, giving up a run, striking out 5, and walking 2, against the Marlins. Jenry Mejia went 2.1 innings, and striking out 4 and walking none. Despite Mejia's impressive beginning, he should stay in the minors this year, to keep his inning number down, and maybe can come up as a reliever later in the year a la Joba Chamberlain.

Meanwhile in the race for the number 5 starter, Fernando Nieve is going to make the team, as a long man or starter, because he's out of options. Figueroa should also make the team, as he's a solid pitcher who can start or relieve and had better peripheals last year than Nieve. And Jon Niese, who I would love to be the number 5 starter, will probably be in AAA, though will come up if one of the starters gets injured.

Could Jerry Manuel be making the right move?

Latest news from Port St Lucie is that Jerry Manuel is considering batting Jose Reyes third.
This is while Carlos Beltran would be injured

Manager Jerry Manuel said Friday that he might move Reyes to the third spot in the order from leadoff while outfielder Carlos Beltran is out after knee surgery. Either Angel Pagan, Beltran's likely replacement, or second baseman Luis Castillo would bat leadoff.

"I think he's ready for that if it's something we need," Manuel said, according to the Star-Ledger of Newark, N.J. "This could be a part of his evolution as a player."

"I'm good with it," Reyes said, according to the New York Post. "I just want to be in the lineup."

Reyes said the order switch isn't a definite yet, however.

"He's not sure yet. We just talked about it a little bit yesterday," Reyes said, according the New York Daily News. "I said I'm open to anything you want me to do. It's not a problem."

Could Jerry Manuel actually be making a good move in batting Jose Reyes third? In their book, The Book, Tom Tango, Andrew Dolphin and Mitchel Lichtman explored optimum lineup construction. They came up with this

Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. Your fourth-and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slows will have more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality.

CHONE has Reyes projected as the third best Mets hitter (excluding Beltran). So, in an optimal lineup construction, he should hit fourth. But how would Reyes hitting third look in a Mets lineup? I used Lineup Analysis to find out how many runs the Mets would score. The OBP and SLG columns used projections from CHONE
The Lineup was Pagan, Castillo, Reyes, Bay, Wright, Murphy, Francoeur, Catchers (.318 OBP, .371 SLG), Pitcher (.176 OBP and .179 SLG)
This Lineup would score 4.66 RPG. The optimum lineup, scoring 4.888 RPG would be Wright, Bay, Catchers, Pagan, Reyes, Francoeur, Murphy, Pitcher, Castillo.

If you switch Castillo and Pagan, having Castillo lead off, you score 4.7 RPG; switch Castillo and Pagan, and Bay and Wright, you get 4.8 RPG. Switch Bay and Wright, you get 4.65 RPG.

And if Reyes doesn't bat third, and the lineup is Reyes, Castillo, Wright, Bay, Murphy, Pagan, Francoeur, Catchers, Pitchers they'll score 4.66 RPG.

So if you're going to bat Reyes third, have Pagan lead off and Wright hit fifth, though it doesn't make that much difference if Wright bats fourth or fifth.
In the end, batting Reyes third or first is not going to make a difference to the Mets.