Saturday, May 22, 2010

Yankees 2-1 Mets: Gah!

My first recap of 2010, and hopefully the first of many, if I have time to do it.
I'll be doing a new format of recap:

Questionable move
A detailed look into any jaw dropping idiocities questionable moves made by the Mets in the game.
Pitch F/x graph of the day
Usually looking at the strikezone plot or spin times speed of the Mets pitcher in the game.
Idea of the game
Personnel, game strategy; just my 2 cents on what could've been done differently. It can be tied back into Questionable move of the day.

So, to the recap:

Questionable move:
Jerry Manuel has awful bullpen management skills. He's used Fernando Nieve in 25 games, and is projected to use him in 94. Nieve now no longer has the shiny ERA, and he has terrible peripherals, including a 15/15 K/BB ratio, and he has a high 5 FIP, xFIP and tRA. He should not be the set up man at all. Of course, in the Top of the 7th, Jerry goes to Elmer Dessens, who was just called up. While Dessens was unlucky to give up 2 runs (great defense, Alex Cora), but at what stage should he have been taken out? With runners at second and third, and none out, the Leverage Index was 2.44, which is highly above average. Jerry should've gone to his best available reliever, which was Francisco Rodriguez. Never mind him being the closer, he's the best reliever, and he should be coming in at high leverage situations, no matter the inning.
Pitch F/x graph


Takahashi's fastball was pretty effective, coupled with a slider down and away against lefties and a sinker down and away against righties. Despite not being a hard thrower, he still got 12.9% swinging strikes, which is above average. Swinging strikes is important because it can indicate how many strikeouts a pitcher will get; yesterday Takahashi struck out 5.
Idea of the game
Jeff Francoeur had a pretty awful game yesterday, like most of the Mets offense. However, he only saw 9 pitches in his 3 at bats as he went 0/3, dropping down to .221/.280/.379. Over his career, Francoeur hits lefties better than righties, having a .771 OPS against lefites, and a .725 OPS against righties. Over his minor league career, Chris Carter has a .896 OPS against righties, 100 points over his OPS against lefties. My idea is that Jerry Manuel platoon Francoeur and Carter, with Carter starting against righties, and Francoeur starting against lefties. It might be one way to get Francoeur to hit better, and to get more the Mets offense hitting better.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Raul Valdes for the rotation?

When Oliver Perez was removed from the rotation, Raul Valdes was mentioned as a possible replacement. In the end, the Mets went with R.A. Dickey, but Valdes came in for John Maine when he was removed for precautionary reasons, and pitched extremely well, striking out 6 in 5 innings. Is he a viable option for the rotation?

Stats:
Valdes, so far, has thrown 20.1 innings, hardly a big sample size. He has struck out 10.2/9 IP, and has a 3.3 K/BB ratio, both excellent figures.
As the above graph shows (click to make larger) Valdes gets excellent movement. That is one reason for his success, and his curve ball, with the most movement, is his outpitch, worth 2.8 runs.

The above graph again shows his movement, this time from the catchers perspective. The curve is a great pitch against lefties, though against righties, not as much, as it's down and in to them.

Conclusion
He has a somewhat worrying flyball trend that could regress, and I'd worried about him against righties. If he is going to start, the ideal conditions would be at Citi Field, with the large outfield, and against a lefty dominated lineup.