Jason Bay xBABIP projections

Continuing with the series, I used the xBABIP calculator to normalize the luck for Jason Bay, and to determine what his offensive output will be using this xBABIP and Chone projections.

Jason has a .352 xBABIP over his career, which is 20 points higher than his average BABIP. If we use his .352 xBABIP, Jason will bat .297/.402/.550 (AVG/OBP/SLG) which is a great year. He will hit 34 homers, and have a .410 wOBA. He is projected to have 622 plate appearences. If we use his average BABIP, .332, he'll bat .283/.391/.535, with a .399 wOBA.
Using his CHONE projections (.267/.376/.514, .388 wOBA, .307 BABIP) on Fangraphs, he is prjected for 4 WAR.
Using his xBABIP calculations and an average of his defensive projections from CHONE and Jeff Zimmerman's projections at Beyond the Boxscore, Jason has a total of 50.2 RAR, which leads to a 5 WAR. I think that is a little too optimistic, and his projected total from Fangraphs is probably right, 4 WAR.
CHONE, xBABIP normalized and BABIP normalized projections here.

Jason Bay signs for the Mets; will it be worth it in 5 years?

So Jason Bay has finally ended the will he won't he by signing a 4 year $66 million dollar contract, with a $17 million dollar vesting option. Bay is a good offensive player, but is pretty awful at defense, though his numbers may be exaggerated a bit by Fenway. However, for him to worth, effectively the $83 million dollar contract, he'd have to worth about 2.5 WAR at least, going forward. And the problem with this is that Bay is not getting any younger; 31 this year, he'll be 36 at the end of the contract in 2014. And while I'm happy that the Mets got Bay, instead of going for the cheaper, worse option, I still think Omar somewhat overpaid him. Bay was not really wanted by any other teams, as the teams that were apparently interested in him, the Mariners and the Red Sox had both just made acquisitions (Bradley for the M's, Cameron for the Sox) that meant that they weren't interested in him anymore. Taking a 5-4-3-2-1 weighted average of his WAR since 2005, Bay averages 3.1. He was 3.5 WAR last year, and using CHONE offensive predictions and Beyond the Boxscore's defensive predictions, he is worth 3.4 WAR, with a .385 wOBA. He'll be paid $15 million in 2010, and a 3.4 WAR would be worth $15.3 million. Hopefully, he can keep this level of production up, but if he declines this deal can be very very nasty for the Mets, especially as Bay is owed $16 million up to his final year. However, if he continues to average 3.1 WAR 2011+, that would add up to a 15.8 WAR, which would be worth $71.8 Million dollars total, at $4.5 million a win. I'm fine with that, and if thats the case, it could be a good signing by Omar.
Now, go out and sign Matt Holliday to play right. That would be awesome.

Chat about John Lackey and Jason Bay

I spoke with Spencer (of this blog) about the Red Sox signing John Lackey (who wasn't interested in the Mets) and I added the obligatory Jason Bay question
Aidan:
John Lackey is described by the Mainstream Media to be a "Bulldog"
However, he has started 24 and 27 games the last 2 years and has suffered elbow and shoulder injuries. His deal was delayed because of a pre existing shoulder injury. How confident are you that the 5/$82.5 Million deal will turn out to be a good one?

Spencer:

The past couple years he has been less than healthy, and thats a risk we're taking. but he pitched at least 200 innings from 2003-2007 and has post-season experience (a 3.12 ERA). He looked fine at the end of last year and, along with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, he can make up the best 1-2-3 punch in baseball.

Aidan:

Josh Beckett is a free agent at the end of the season. Will the Red Sox be able to resign him to a deal, where he could arguably get the same type of money as Lackey or even more? And if not, is that why they brought in John Lackey?

Spencer:

We brought in Lackey to supplement our staff now, and obviously we are going to try to negotiate with Beckett during this year. He has been our rock since 2007 and we're definitely going to want him for longer. BUT if his price is absurdly high, we would just let the Yankees get him. And we would still have Lester, Lackey, and Buccholz (not to mention dice-k)

Aidan:

Now, I have to ask the obvious Jason Bay question. Mike Cameron signed with the Red Sox on Wednesday, so it looks like Bay's time with the Sox is over. If he signs with the Mets (and we're front runners) do you think he will fit in, and is he better than Holliday?

Spencer:

Bay is a slightly better defender (.988 vs .980, 15 Assists vs 7 last year (Aidan: UZR liked Holliday a lot more than Bay)), but Holliday is a slightly better hitter, if not slugger (.318 career BA vs .280). Bay can hit for more power and he walks more as well. i think the Mets have decent speed with Reyes, Wright, and Beltran (Holliday runs more than Bay) so I think that Bay would fit in more. but really, don't you think you guys have enough stars to underachieve already?(Aidan: The idiots in the FO and management are the reasons we underachieve)

The Mets think Jason Bay is better defensively than Matt Holliday. It's not a joke

Yep, in another coup in the Mets FO, they believe that Jason Bay is better defensively than Matt Holliday.
"- Despite the numbers, they like him defensively over Holliday."
Source
How much do you want to bet that is because of this play:
Speaking of the numbers, Holliday is better than Bay in all the meanigful defensive stats (sorry, fielding percentage, and errors).
Holliday UZR vs Bay UZR, 2009
Holliday:5.7 (not to mention excellent 9.1 and 14.2 UZR's in 2007 and 08 in Coors Field)
Bay:-13
Holliday ZR vs Bay ZR, 2009
Holliday:17.148 ZR with STL, 11.658 with OAK, total of 13.341
Bay:11.255 ZR
ZR is zone rating: The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive zone, the zone being measured by STATS, Inc.

Seriously. Holliday>Bay. And now that Holliday has been offered 8/$128m, I would forget Bay's contract, which is the same basically, and offer 6/$110 to Holliday. Maybe'll accept. But I'd rather have Holliday than Bay.