Outfield
Seeing as Carlos Beltran could miss a lot of next year with recovery from micro fracture surgery, the Mets will need to find someone to play centerfield. Angel Pagan, despite filling in nicely, has just a .335 OBP (though he does have a .492 slugging). One thing that worries me about Pagan is his .327 BABIP, which is well above the .302 league average, and above his career norm, .310. That might have to do with his 17.0% Line Drive%, or his 43.6% Groundball percentage (because he's fast, he can get infield singles). However, seeing as he has a 5.6 IFH%, I don't think that's it. Pagan is a useful Endy Chavez type 4th outfielder, who could get exposed playing every day for 162 games. One option is Matt Murton, who has just been DFA'ed by the Rockies. Murton is a career .287/.353/.438 hitter, and would be a better option offensively than Francoeur. Free agents that could be cheap for 2010 include Xavier Nady, Mike Cameron and Rick Ankiel. Nady would provide a little better league average offense, and could be had for $7 million, due to the fact he is coming back from injury. Jason Bay could also be signed, but seeing as he is coming off of a 4 year, $18.5 million dollar contract, he would most likely cost money the Wilpons could not afford. It would be interesting to see if the Mets could trade for Carl Crawford, seeing as he is a free agent after the 2010 season. Crawford makes $10 million next year, and would be worth it. Another free agent after 2010 who I would love to sign is Adam Dunn. He should've been signed before this year, and despite bad defense makes up for it by posting .900 OPS and hitting 40 homers consitently. He would provide the Mets with power, somthing they need. Also, someone who will be in the Majors and should be prodcuing by 2011 is Fernando Martinez. In fact, he might be starting in 2010. Another player is Jeff Francoeur, though he will be payed $5 million next year. I am going to go out on a limb and say they could sign Francoeur to platoon him, seeing as he hits lefties very well, to a tune of .292/.335/.476, a 102 point increase on his OPS against righties. However I do not want Francoeur over Murton especially seeing as Murton will be much cheaper than Francoeur, and better.
Outfield: 2010
LF: Murton
CF: Beltran/Pagan (If Beltran is out for a while)
RF: Nady, 1 year/$7 million
OF:Pagan and Fernando Martinez
Outfield 2011
LF: Dunn
CF:Beltran
RF: Murton
OF: Pagan and F-Mart.
Depending on how well Martinez does in 2010 could make it so that the Mets do not need to sign Dunn for 2011.
Showing posts with label Fixing Mets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fixing Mets. Show all posts
Friday, August 28, 2009
Thursday, August 6, 2009
My Take on Fixing the Mets, Part 2
After Part One covered the pitchers and catchers, Part Two will cover the Infield.
First Base
Daniel Murphy has done a good job defensively, his UZR is 1.5 and his UZR/150 is 3.4. He has 7 homers, and ZIPs predicts 5 for the rest of the season. However, he has been a bit dissapointing based by last years performance. He had a .386 BABIp last year, and this year it is .272. Because this is his second year, you don't know what his BABIP will be, but his Line Drive percentage is down, his fly ball percentages is up, and his HR/FB% is down. In the end, you don't know who you get, but for next year, I would find having Murphy at first base perfectly acceptable. In 2011 though, I want to see Ike Davis. This year, at AA Binghamton, Ike is batting .301/.382/.534. He has 8 home runs and 10 doubles in 165 PA's, so the power is there. He should be in Buffalo in 2010, and hopefully Queens in 2011. On the Free Agent market, in 2010, Albert Pujols. Other cheaper options include Carlos Pena, Lyle Overbay, and Derek Lee. Overbay and Lee would be older (34 and 36 respectively) while Pena will be 33, and Pujols 31. My choice after Pujols would be Pena.
Second Base
Luis Castillo would be in the last year of his contract in 2011. Internal options include Jonathan Malo and Jose Coronado, in AA, but both of them are having pretty sucky seasons. Another option could be Reese Havens, who projects to be a second baseman, but this year in PSL, he is hitting .237/.351/.419 although with power, it translates to a .207/.265/.339 line. Hector Pellot could be another option; in Port St Lucie he is hitting .261/.339/.362. Free Agents after 2010 include Freddy Sanchez, Kaz Matsui, and Akinori Iwamura. If I had to sign anyone, it would be Iwamura.
Shortstop
Jose Reyes. It will be his option year, if exercised, but the Mets should really extend his contract. He is one of the better shortstops in the game, and one of the faces of the franchise. I am not one of those people who think he should be traded, unless you could get a good shortstop in return (with Boston, Ellsbury and Lowrie had been discussed, I still want to see how Lowrie plays). The only other internal options are Ruben Tejada, a good glove no hit shortstop, Wilmer Flores (who will probably be moved to the outfield) and Reese Havens (who predicts to be a second baseman). The only viable free agent is JJ Hardy, but I would not replace Jose Reyes with JJ Hardy. His career OBP is .323, and his wOBA (weighted On Base Average, a stat that uses linear weights, on a OBP scale) is .326, compared to a career .337 OBP and .342 wOBA for Reyes, which is not great, but which has been improving steadily.
Third Base
David Wright. There is no one else I want at third base. No one. No one internally, no one externally. 2011 he will make $14 Million.
Thats it for Part 2, Part 3 will cover the outfield and Bench, and Part 4 will cover budget and lineups.
First Base
Daniel Murphy has done a good job defensively, his UZR is 1.5 and his UZR/150 is 3.4. He has 7 homers, and ZIPs predicts 5 for the rest of the season. However, he has been a bit dissapointing based by last years performance. He had a .386 BABIp last year, and this year it is .272. Because this is his second year, you don't know what his BABIP will be, but his Line Drive percentage is down, his fly ball percentages is up, and his HR/FB% is down. In the end, you don't know who you get, but for next year, I would find having Murphy at first base perfectly acceptable. In 2011 though, I want to see Ike Davis. This year, at AA Binghamton, Ike is batting .301/.382/.534. He has 8 home runs and 10 doubles in 165 PA's, so the power is there. He should be in Buffalo in 2010, and hopefully Queens in 2011. On the Free Agent market, in 2010, Albert Pujols. Other cheaper options include Carlos Pena, Lyle Overbay, and Derek Lee. Overbay and Lee would be older (34 and 36 respectively) while Pena will be 33, and Pujols 31. My choice after Pujols would be Pena.
Second Base
Luis Castillo would be in the last year of his contract in 2011. Internal options include Jonathan Malo and Jose Coronado, in AA, but both of them are having pretty sucky seasons. Another option could be Reese Havens, who projects to be a second baseman, but this year in PSL, he is hitting .237/.351/.419 although with power, it translates to a .207/.265/.339 line. Hector Pellot could be another option; in Port St Lucie he is hitting .261/.339/.362. Free Agents after 2010 include Freddy Sanchez, Kaz Matsui, and Akinori Iwamura. If I had to sign anyone, it would be Iwamura.
Shortstop
Jose Reyes. It will be his option year, if exercised, but the Mets should really extend his contract. He is one of the better shortstops in the game, and one of the faces of the franchise. I am not one of those people who think he should be traded, unless you could get a good shortstop in return (with Boston, Ellsbury and Lowrie had been discussed, I still want to see how Lowrie plays). The only other internal options are Ruben Tejada, a good glove no hit shortstop, Wilmer Flores (who will probably be moved to the outfield) and Reese Havens (who predicts to be a second baseman). The only viable free agent is JJ Hardy, but I would not replace Jose Reyes with JJ Hardy. His career OBP is .323, and his wOBA (weighted On Base Average, a stat that uses linear weights, on a OBP scale) is .326, compared to a career .337 OBP and .342 wOBA for Reyes, which is not great, but which has been improving steadily.
Third Base
David Wright. There is no one else I want at third base. No one. No one internally, no one externally. 2011 he will make $14 Million.
Thats it for Part 2, Part 3 will cover the outfield and Bench, and Part 4 will cover budget and lineups.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
My take on how the Mets can be fixed, Part One
First of all, this season is a lost season. In my opinion, there is no way that the Mets are going to come back. So, if the injured players aren't ready by August 1, shut them down for the rest of the year. Sadly this year, and 2010 must be regarded as a rebuilding year. So how do you rebuild these Mets? Luckily, there are some propsects in AAA and AA that should be ready for the Major Leagues by the middle of 2010 and the beginning of 2011.
Starting Pitching
For the rest of this year, Jon Niese should be in the starting rotation, and Nelson Figueroa should be too. Figgy is not part of the future, but with a 2.96 FIP in AAA deserves a chance to be in the majors. He can't be worse than Livan Hernandez, right? According to Baseball Propsectus' minor league translation stats, Figueroa has a 3.67 DERA. (DERA is a defense independent pitching stat measuring what your ERA should've been based on your strikeout rate, walk rate, home run rate, and groundball percentage) Livan Hernandez has a 5.05 DERA. If Brad Holt, and Jenrry Mejia pitch well in AA this year, and pitch well in the beginning of their 2010 AAA season, (If they're there), bring them up as well. There needs to be youth in the rotation. Also, if you can dump Perez, I would do that, but sadly we're stuck with him. Roy Halladay is a free agent in 2010, but I wouldn't sign him just because it will be a lot of money for someone who is turning 34 in 2011.
2011 Rotation: Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Holt/Maine/Mejia, Perez
Relief Pitching
Not much of a future in the team. The only one that we hear about is Eddie Kunz, but he has fallen from grace recently. The bullpen will probably be K-Rod, Parnell, and some other guys to fill out the relief corps. Kunz could be a middle reliever, if he has sucess at AAA, which he has not had so far.
Offensively
Catcher
Brian Schneider is a free agent after this year, and I would not resign him, if it was possible to sign Victor Martinez, though that is unlikely, seeing as how he wants to retire as a Indian, and has an option. Instead, I would resign Schneider, just becuase he's the best available, and have Josh Thole develop. Thole is a good hitter, batting .341/.409/.449 so far in AA, which is translated to a major league .291/.335/.408. The problem is that he isn't a very good defensive catcher so far, and his other position is first base, which he doesn't have enough power for. Which is why I would resign Schneider, have Thole in AAA for the rest of 2009, and part of 2010, and call him up in 2010, and have Schneider help him defensively, so he can be the starter in 2011.
Part 2 will cover the rest of the infield.
Free Agent class information was got from Cot's Baseball Contracts
Starting Pitching
For the rest of this year, Jon Niese should be in the starting rotation, and Nelson Figueroa should be too. Figgy is not part of the future, but with a 2.96 FIP in AAA deserves a chance to be in the majors. He can't be worse than Livan Hernandez, right? According to Baseball Propsectus' minor league translation stats, Figueroa has a 3.67 DERA. (DERA is a defense independent pitching stat measuring what your ERA should've been based on your strikeout rate, walk rate, home run rate, and groundball percentage) Livan Hernandez has a 5.05 DERA. If Brad Holt, and Jenrry Mejia pitch well in AA this year, and pitch well in the beginning of their 2010 AAA season, (If they're there), bring them up as well. There needs to be youth in the rotation. Also, if you can dump Perez, I would do that, but sadly we're stuck with him. Roy Halladay is a free agent in 2010, but I wouldn't sign him just because it will be a lot of money for someone who is turning 34 in 2011.
2011 Rotation: Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Holt/Maine/Mejia, Perez
Relief Pitching
Not much of a future in the team. The only one that we hear about is Eddie Kunz, but he has fallen from grace recently. The bullpen will probably be K-Rod, Parnell, and some other guys to fill out the relief corps. Kunz could be a middle reliever, if he has sucess at AAA, which he has not had so far.
Offensively
Catcher
Brian Schneider is a free agent after this year, and I would not resign him, if it was possible to sign Victor Martinez, though that is unlikely, seeing as how he wants to retire as a Indian, and has an option. Instead, I would resign Schneider, just becuase he's the best available, and have Josh Thole develop. Thole is a good hitter, batting .341/.409/.449 so far in AA, which is translated to a major league .291/.335/.408. The problem is that he isn't a very good defensive catcher so far, and his other position is first base, which he doesn't have enough power for. Which is why I would resign Schneider, have Thole in AAA for the rest of 2009, and part of 2010, and call him up in 2010, and have Schneider help him defensively, so he can be the starter in 2011.
Part 2 will cover the rest of the infield.
Free Agent class information was got from Cot's Baseball Contracts
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