Thankful

We as sports fans have much to be thankful for. Aidan, Spencer and I have much to be thankful for as friends. As a die hard sports fan, I have seen moments that can bring people to tears. We are thankful for underdogs. What would the world be like if there wasn't a goliath to lose to david. If anyone wants to see this in action look up highlights for Michigan versus Appalachian St. in 2007. The Mountaineers became the first D-1 AA team to beat a D-1 A team in the top 5. To listen to the announcers from the Appalachian St. radio network scream as the Mountaineers blocked Michigan's field goal as time expired and see the players carry their coach off the field is one sight that everyone should see. We are thankful for those players who have the ability to do things we can't believe possible. Lebron, Kobe, Albert Pujols, Peyton Manning, Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin,

trRA for hitters

Ever since Voros McCracken's ground breaking work on DIPS, and luck, there has been debate on how much control pitchers and hitters have on luck. BABIP measures whether a player has been lucky or unlucky, and there are many defense independent stats. One of the better ones is tRA or true Run Average. As this article shows, it is based on batted ball data. This same idea can be applied to hitters, and there can even be a regression value. The formula for this stat would be like wOBA; number of batted balls*batted ball run value and add this to each hitter and then divide by plate appearences. Walks and strikeouts can also be added. Using the run values given in the article about tRA, I applied this to David Wright and the Majors. For David Wright it comes out to .126; some work might be required on this statistical measure, but personally I think it is a good way to evaluate hitters, and rewards them for what they hit, rather than the outcome.

Correlation, Part 6

For a recap on Correlation and the rest of the series, go here.
Part 6 focuses on the correlation of wOBA to Runs. wOBA is weighted On Base Average, and is a linear weights stat on an On Base Percentage scale. Here is the formula, and some info.
The Correlation between Runs and wOBA was .93, so it has strong correlation. The R² is .87. This is by far the strongest correlation I've had in this study, and it is stronger than average, OBP and slugging, but strangely, not OPS.
The Graph: (Click to enlargen)

My Plan for 2010

On Amazin Avenue there is a contest for off season plan. I posted a plan, and I'm going to repost it here. The budget has to be about $150 million dollars, and trades and signings have to be realistic.
The Plan: (Courtesy of amazinavenue.com)

Outfield

Matt Holliday for 5 years/$100 million, $20 Million a year. This is probably the easiest move to make, as we know the Mets need power, and Holliday is the best player available. Also, what's nice is that Holliday's salary is only $8 million more than what came off the books when Delgado declared free agency. For the rest of the outfield, Angel Pagan gets re upped for about $650,000. Jeff Francoeur will get resigned for $4 million for 2010, and will face arbitration in 2011. The Mets will also sign Endy Chavez for $1 million (he's $1 million due to the injury).

Catcher

Trade Ruben Tejada and Eddie Kunz for Chris Snyder. Snyder makes $4.75 Million in 2010 and $5.75 million in 2011. and Omir Santos is the backup, for $500,000. Santos is actually a pretty good defender, according to Driveline Mechanics, worth 2.4 runs, with Snyder being worth -3. Josh Thole goes in AAA, but comes up in 2010.

First Base and Second Base

The Mets make this 3 way trade that's being reported, with Castillo going to Chicago, Bradley going to Toronto and Lyle Overbay going to the Mets. He will make $7 Million in 2010, and is a free agent in 2011. Nick Evans will be the backup first baseman, with Daniel Murphy tries to become the Mark DeRosa type, and learn how to play second base, as a backup. Overbay is actually a pretty decent fielder despite his -.6 UZR in 2009. Before that though, he had a 2.9 UZR in 2008 and 3.9 in 2007. Bill James predicts a .354 wOBA for 2010, a slight decrease from 2009, but hopefully his good defense would return. Ike Davis will be the starting first baseman in 2011.

For Second base, the Mets will sign Placido Polanco for 2 years/$10 million. Polanco has great defense (11.4 UZR!), and is also a former Philly, which puts up his Grission factor. His wOBA is projected to be .325, which is a little less than Felipe Lopez's .333, who was the other contender for the position. However, Polanco's defense makes him more valuable than Lopez, who also has pretty good defense, just not as good as Polanco's.

Wilson Valdez will be signed to a $400,000 contract for defense.

Starting Pitching

Starting pitching is a tricky one. I feel Mike Pelfrey's ERA will bounce back in 2010, making fans love him again and proclaim his as the number 2. With the better defense at Short and second, he'll probably give up less hits. Meanwhile, the pitching market is kind of bleh. But with the Red slashing payroll, the Mets can make a deal for Aaron Harang. I would trade Kirk Niuwenhuis and Parnell for Harang, who will make $12.5 million in 2010 and 2011. After Santana, Pelfrey and Harang, the Mets have Niese, Maine and Perez. Another option would be to sign Rich Harden for 1 year/$8 million with incentives.

Relief Pitching

BB-Rod as closer. Green, Socks!, Feliciano as the 7th and 8th inning guys. Sign Kiko Calero for 2 years/$4 million. Perez can be a long man if he sucks in the rotation, or loses out. John Maine could also go into the bullpen if he doesn't make the rotation. Other options for the 'pen include Adam Bostick as the second lefty.

Payroll

The total is 153.05 for this year and 151.65 next year (in millions). If this is a problem, I can make a few adjustments.

Name	2010 in millions	2011 in millions
Snyder	4.75	5.75
Santos	.5	Free Agent
Thole	.4	.4
Overbay	7	Free Agent
Davis	In AAA	.4
Evans	.4	.4
Murphy	.4	.4
Polanco	5	5
Reyes	9	11 (option)
Wright	10	14
Valdez	.4	.4
Holliday	20	20
Beltran	18.5	18.5
Francoeur	4	4.5
Pagan	.65	.7
Chavez	1	2.5
Santana	21	22.5
Harang	12.5	12.75 option
Pelfrey	.5	.65 (arb)
Maine	2.3	2.5
Perez	12	12
Niese	.4	.4
Harden	8	Free Agent
Rodriguez	11.5	11.5
Stokes	.45	.45
Feliciano	2	2
Green	.5	.55
Calero	2	2
Bostick	.4	.4
Total	$153.05 Million	$151.65 Million

Correlation, Part 5

For an explanation of Correlation, go here and for the other parts, go here.
This is the correlation of Babip to Runs: BABIP is batting average on balls in play: it shows you the percent of the time you get a hit when the ball is put in play (Home runs are excluded.)
The correlation was .57 (remember 1 is the best) and the R^2 was .33, which shows the percent of variance.
The equation of the line of regression (or best fit) was f(x)=0x+.23 (in the y=mx+b model)
Click to make larger

Round Up

I haven't posted in a while. The combination of a Yankees-Phillies World Series (I watched 3 innings of the whole thing), and the fact that there hasn't been a lot of Mets news lead to a lack of posts. However, I'm going to do a round up:

• Ike Davis went 1/2 with a single and groundout in yesterday's Arizona Fall League rising stars. According to Adam Rubin's list for BA, Ike is the Mets 4th prospect, with Wilmer Flores 3rd. I disagree, I see Davis with more potential right now (I know, Flores is 18), and I would put him 3rd.
  
• In regard to starting pitching: I do not think the Mets should sign John Lackey. He's a bit of an injury risk, and for the money he's going to get, I don't think he's worth it. If it came between Holliday and Lackey, I'd choose Holliday. Also, just because Mike Pelfrey's ERA jumped up a run, does not mean he can be a "number 2 or number 3" pitcher. His ERA went up because he's a groundball pitcher and the Mets sucked at defense this year.The Mets were the worst team in the NL, and the second worst in the Majors, with a UZR of -47.3 (that's 4.7 wins by the way), and a UZR/150 of -7.3. ERA is a bad way at evaluating pitchers; tRA, tRA*, FIP and xFIP are all better.
  
• Depending on how much Randy Wolf would cost, I'd say he's a better option then Lackey. Also, the Mets could make one year offers to both Bedard and Harder with incentives based on innings.
  

More later.